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A newly formed political-military coalition brings together seven regional rebel movements and fronts across Ethiopia in a joint push against the federal government
Borkena Desk
TORONTO, Canada — A major political development unfolded in Ethiopia on Sunday as seven armed opposition groups and political fronts announced a political-military coalition called the “Cooperation of Ethiopian People’s Forces for Survival” (locally known as Tsemdo) to topple Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party government.
Who Is in the Alliance?
The coalition draws members from six regions, comprising seven distinct groups:
- Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM)
- Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)
- Oromo Liberation Army (OLA)
- Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF)
- Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front
- Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement
- Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement
Some of these members are considered heavyweights within the country’s armed opposition landscape.
Member Group Profiles
Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM)
Formed as a rebel umbrella organization in the Amhara region earlier this year, the Fano movement emerged in 2023 following the war between the federal government and the TPLF. During that conflict, Fano forces fought alongside the federal government against the TPLF. When the conflict concluded in November 2022 via the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, government moves to disarm Fano forces triggered a full-scale conflict across the region.
Different factions under two major groups engaged the Ethiopian Defense Force, prompting the federal government to declare a state of emergency in August 2023 with the objective of disarming Fano forces within weeks. Three years later, the conflict persists. Despite claims from Defense Chief of Staff Field Marshal Berhanu Jula that the group’s spine has been broken, Fano forces continue operating across the region and beyond, with estimates citing hundreds of thousands of fighters and a reported presence in the Oromia region.
Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)
The TPLF ruled Ethiopia for 27 years until nationwide anti-government protests forced it from federal power in 2018. The group subsequently retreated to the Tigray region. Following an unprovoked attack on the Northern Command of the Ethiopian Defense Force—during a period when Addis Ababa and Eritrea had established friendly relations, leading Asmara to ally with the federal government—a two-year war erupted. African Union mediators estimate the conflict claimed at least 600,000 lives before ending with the Pretoria Agreement.
While an interim administration was established and the TPLF lost regional control, it retained an estimated 200,000 armed forces despite disarmament requirements. In April 2026, the TPLF removed the Tadesse Worede-led interim administration, reinstated its leadership, and renewed hostilities with the federal government. This shift coincided with a reconciliation between the TPLF and Eritrea, laying the groundwork for the Tsemdo alliance. Following the interim government’s removal, federal drone strikes targeted TPLF military capabilities, though the resulting damage remains unverified.
Oromo Liberation Army (OLA)
Believed to have originated as the military wing of the Oromo Liberation Front, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) launched active military operations in the Oromia region after Abiy Ahmed assumed office in 2018. Operating extensively across Oromia, the group has been linked to the assassination of government officials, civilian massacres targeting ethnic Amharas, and ransom kidnappings. While lacking decisive military victory, the group maintains significant disruptive capacity, occasionally launching operations north of Debre Birhan and Debresina amid rumors of hidden support structures. Its troop strength is estimated in the hundreds of thousands, though reports suggest it may maintain a passive posture within the new military operations. This group was known to be a secessionist with the aspiration to establish “Oromia Republic.”
Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF)
Operating in the Somali region, the ONLF entered Ethiopia from Eritrea in 2018 alongside the Oromo Liberation Front with a stated objective of pursuing peaceful struggle, though internal splits followed later. While its direct military challenge to the government trails the preceding three groups, it retains considerable disruptive potential alongside its primary focus on political activism.
Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front
Operating in the Afar region, this group commands a limited number of combatants but occupies strategic territory vital to Ethiopia’s import and export trade through Djibouti.
Benishangul-Gumuz Armed Groups
These regional groups operate near the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Active for at least seven years, they have faced allegations of receiving foreign backing for disruptive activities.
Objectives of the New Coalition
In a statement read by Zemene Kassie—selected as coalition chairperson—during a broadcast from the Tigray Mass Media Agency, the coalition outlined its core goals: toppling Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and establishing a transitional administration.
The statement defines two core missions for the transitional government following the administration’s fall:
- Safeguard public survival and national security, halt ongoing conflicts, guarantee human and democratic rights, maintain peace, stabilize social and economic crises, improve neighborly relations, and restore regional and international standing.
- Conduct an inclusive popular and constitutional dialogue to resolve foundational national questions with direct public participation.
Background: The Security Landscape Since 2018
Since Abiy Ahmed took power in 2018, conflicts across multiple regions have degraded national security, making public transport travel outside Addis Ababa hazardous—a situation critics allege is engineered by the state. The period has also seen recurring organized massacres targeting ethnic Amharas and extensive attacks on the Ethiopian Orthodox Church.
Military Balance of Power
The rebel alliance holds significant geographical reach, alongside substantial troop numbers. However, claims regarding military numbers and troop strengths are not independently verified.
Conversely, the Ethiopian Defense Force relies heavily on airpower, including domestic drone manufacturing capabilities, alongside long-standing troop training programs yielding an estimated force of up to one million soldiers. Regarding foreign backing, the Ethiopian government has repeatedly alleged that Eritrea and Egypt support internal armed groups, going so far as to engage the diplomatic community in Addis Ababa with claims regarding Eritrea. In response, Eritrea has accused the Abiy Ahmed administration of harboring intentions to forcefully secure sea access, while Cairo has consistently denied allegations of supporting Ethiopian rebels. Despite facing severe economic pressures and questions regarding combat morale, the military reports ongoing operational gains, including a recent claim that 300 TPLF fighters surrendered on the Wolkait Front.
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The Rastaman Wannabe of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) is telling this man and Debre, not so fast. He describes emerging alliance among opposition armed groups as procedural consensus, Not Political Agreement. He stressed it to all of us it is a “procedural consensus,” that it does not constitute an agreement on substantive political questions or authorize any participating group to determine the country’s political future. That means after the current regime is defeated and unseated the area that will be under his control, the entire Oromia region including all those districts contested with Somalia, Afar, Sidama and Beni Shangul, Gambella regions, South Sudan and Sudan will not guarantee to stay in the union. Other groups in the alliance do not have the authority to prohibit him from declaring the area under his rule a separate and sovereign republic. That is why you now see bigots in Minnesota, Michigan, Tennessee, Toronto, Oslo and Down Under dancing in their stinking joints. They have started packing up. You folks have been told ‘Ethiopia, out of Oromia’ umpteen times but you did not listen. How did he do that? It must be that Roman Red he has been puffing as a multivitamin dietary supplement
Also, don’t forget the 1 million Oromos in Kenya. They have been pleading to the leader of former Qeerroo movement and media mogul to come and liberate them for years. We all know the 1 million Bilen and Beja people in Eritrea are 100% related to my Oromos with the same genetic strings. They eventually need to be reunited with their kin and kit. The Rastaman Wannabe in the ‘alliance’ has a lot of work that need to cross borders cut out for him. I’m just trying to remind ‘liberators’. Don’t kill the messenger here.
Tons of love, harmony, and success to you all in this Ethiopian New Year! You ALL know that Blacks are UNWELCOME world-wide! So, why would anyone ever support or spark such Proxy Wars that would force Ethiopians to flee and become Unwelcome Refugees? Why not let Ethiopians live in their own land in peace, harmony, and dignity?
Ethiopia’s latest Election was scheduled for 6AM to 6PM, but Ethiopians RE-ELECTED Team Abiy [TA] by lining up at polling stations from ≈4 AM till past midnight. ALL ETHNICS elected their RESPECTIVE representatives! AU Election Monitors were there! The WORLD witnessed it! Democracy Advocates could have run in the election!
The Era of Entitlement, Coup/Putsch, etc. is Gone for Good! Ethiopia for Ethiopians, RUN ONLY by the Ethiopians ELECTED by Ethiopians! NO Egypt/Eritrea/etc. proxies in various Ethnic Hats should ever be allowed to run or destabilize Ethiopia! ALL Proxies [TPLF-EPLF/OLF-IFLO/Fanno (Misnomer)/EPRP/Meison/etc.] must be banned!
Why would anyone with an iota of conscience ever ally itself with any of those Egypt-Eritrea’s Proxies in various Ethnic Hats? In its recent Amara Massacre Spree, didn’t the TPLF massacre over 1563 Amaras at MayKadra in just a day? How would anyone forget what the EPLF-TPLF Duo did to Ethiopians between 1991 & 1998? How would anyone ever forger Prof. Asrat Woldeyes’ plea to the West [≈“Your satellites even pick up a needle. How come they missed the pile of Amara corpses in AA, Harargé, Arusi, etc.?”]?
Brothers & Sisters, I can go on-and-on with their Nile-Long Rap Sheets! They are ALL Pure Evil Murderers & Looters! There is NOTHING in it for the Ethnics they say they represent! The Ethiopian Defense Forces should deal with them with an Iron Fist Without Mercy! No Mercy for The Enemy Within in Any Hat hell-bent on destabilizing Ethiopia!
Putting all this hype and publicity aside, the next few weeks and months will show how this alliance operates and puts its plans into action. It is not clear if this ‘alliance’ is still the already publicized ‘Tsimdo’. Some have ‘Tsimdo’ as a united front between the TPLF and the Eritrean government. So with the formation of this ‘Alliance’ what becomes of ‘Tsemdo’? How does this alliance change the structure of the fighting force? Is the alliance situational where a group or groups will send their fighting forces to help a besieged group or does the alliance now have one army united under one command? It is very interesting and something to watch,
As an advocate and a student of peaceful struggle I never endorsed and will never support violence. That stems from substantive fact that there has never been an armed group that brought democratic governance after unseating regimes in the last 250 years except the American War of Independence. Not one! The fact has been one despot goes out just to be replaced by another one. I hope and pray that this alliance is a different kind of an armed group. Like the enduring quote we should all ask this alliance ‘Show me the money!!!’
Peace y’all!!!
Things are now getting even more head spinning. Factions of the fronts that are said to have entered into this ‘alliance’ have just released statements announcing that their groups are not part or even aware of it. They are members of the ONLF and OLF/OLA. They are factions, I guess. It is not a secret that the TPLF is fraught with dissent and desertion. Is this ‘Alliance’ a quickly cooked up ruse for publicity stunt?
Phew!!!
It reminds of some of those ‘unities’ we used to be deafened with in the 1990’s and early 2000’s like UDF, CUD, UEDF and others we did not know what to make of them. There were other ‘united fronts’ slapped together at the dumpsites in Asmara after 2005. We were told Alliance for Liberty, Equality and Justice in Ethiopia and its allies the Afar Peoples Party along with the EPPF would march into Addis/Finfinnee by the crack of the day at dawn the next day in 2010. I was one of those who were exited about that declaration. It is like the old time saying of what Sir Anthony Weldon told us in 1651 ‘Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me’. But still I hope NOT!!!