Explainer: What Is the “Alliance for Survival,” Ethiopia’s New Armed Opposition Coalition? 

A newly formed political-military coalition brings together seven regional rebel movements and fronts across Ethiopia in a joint push against the federal government

Borkena Desk

TORONTO, Canada — A major political development unfolded in Ethiopia on Sunday as seven armed opposition groups and political fronts announced a political-military coalition called the “Cooperation of Ethiopian People’s Forces for Survival” (locally known as Tsemdo) to oppose Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party government.

Who Is in the Alliance?

The coalition draws members from six regions, comprising seven distinct groups:

1. Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM)
2. Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)
3. Oromo Liberation Army (OLA)
4. Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF)
5. Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front
6. Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement
7. Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement

Some of these members are considered heavyweights within the country’s armed opposition landscape.

Member Group Profiles

Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM)

Formed as a rebel umbrella organization in the Amhara region earlier this year, the Fano movement emerged in 2023 following the war between the federal government and the TPLF. During that conflict, Fano forces fought alongside the federal government against the TPLF. When the conflict concluded in November 2022 via the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, government moves to disarm Fano forces triggered a full-scale conflict across the region.

Different factions under two major groups engaged the Ethiopian Defense Force, prompting the federal government to declare a state of emergency in August 2023 with the objective of disarming Fano forces within weeks. Three years later, the conflict persists. Despite claims from Defense Chief of Staff Field Marshal Berhanu Jula that the group’s spine has been broken, Fano forces continue operating across the region and beyond, with estimates citing hundreds of thousands of fighters and a reported presence in the Oromia region.

Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)

The TPLF ruled Ethiopia for 27 years until nationwide anti-government protests forced it from federal power in 2018. The group subsequently retreated to the Tigray region. Following an unprovoked attack on the Northern Command of the Ethiopian Defense Force—during a period when Addis Ababa and Eritrea had established friendly relations, leading Asmara to ally with the federal government—a two-year war erupted. African Union mediators estimate the conflict claimed at least 600,000 lives before ending with the Pretoria Agreement.

While an interim administration was established and the TPLF lost regional control, it retained an estimated 200,000 armed forces despite disarmament requirements. In April 2026, the TPLF removed the Tadesse Worede-led interim administration, reinstated its leadership, and renewed hostilities with the federal government. This shift coincided with a reconciliation between the TPLF and Eritrea, laying the groundwork for the Tsemdo alliance. Following the interim government’s removal, federal drone strikes targeted TPLF military capabilities, though the resulting damage remains unverified.

Oromo Liberation Army (OLA)

Believed to have originated as the military wing of the Oromo Liberation Front, the OLA launched active military operations in the Oromia region after Abiy Ahmed assumed office in 2018. Operating extensively across Oromia, the group has been linked to the assassination of government officials, civilian massacres targeting ethnic Amharas, and ransom kidnappings. While lacking decisive military victory, the group maintains significant disruptive capacity, occasionally launching operations north of Debre Birhan and Debresina amid rumors of hidden support structures. Its troop strength is estimated in the hundreds of thousands, though reports suggest it may maintain a passive posture within the new military operations.

Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF)

Operating in the Somali region, the ONLF entered Ethiopia from Eritrea in 2018 alongside the Oromo Liberation Front with a stated objective of pursuing peaceful struggle, though internal splits followed later. While its direct military challenge to the government trails the preceding three groups, it retains considerable disruptive potential alongside its primary focus on political activism.

Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front

Operating in the Afar region, this group commands a limited number of combatants but occupies strategic territory vital to Ethiopia’s import and export trade through Djibouti.

Benishangul-Gumuz Armed Groups

These regional groups operate near the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Active for at least seven years, they have faced allegations of receiving foreign backing for disruptive activities.

Objectives of the New Coalition

In a statement read by Zemene Kassie—selected as coalition chairperson—during a broadcast from the Tigray Mass Media Agency, the coalition outlined its core goals: toppling Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and establishing a transitional administration.

The statement defines two core missions for the transitional government following the administration’s fall:

1. Safeguard public survival and national security, halt ongoing conflicts, guarantee human and democratic rights, maintain peace, stabilize social and economic crises, improve neighborly relations, and restore regional and international standing.
2. Conduct an inclusive popular and constitutional dialogue to resolve foundational national questions with direct public participation.

Background: The Security Landscape Since 2018

Since Abiy Ahmed took power in 2018, conflicts across multiple regions have degraded national security, making public transport travel outside Addis Ababa hazardous—a situation critics allege is engineered by the state. The period has also seen recurring organized massacres targeting ethnic Amharas and extensive attacks on the Ethiopian Orthodox Church.

Military Balance of Power

The rebel alliance holds significant geographical reach, alongside substantial troop numbers. However, claims regarding military numbers and troop strengths are not independently verified.

Conversely, the Ethiopian Defense Force relies heavily on airpower, including domestic drone manufacturing capabilities, alongside long-standing troop training programs yielding an estimated force of up to one million soldiers. Regarding foreign backing, the Ethiopian government has repeatedly alleged that Eritrea and Egypt support internal armed groups, going so far as to engage the diplomatic community in Addis Ababa with claims regarding Eritrea. In response, Eritrea has accused the Abiy Ahmed administration of harboring intentions to forcefully secure sea access, while Cairo has consistently denied allegations of supporting Ethiopian rebels. Despite facing severe economic pressures and questions regarding combat morale, the military reports ongoing operational gains, including a recent claim that 300 TPLF fighters surrendered on the Wolkait Front.

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