By Rasselas Welde
“Fools rush in where angels fear to tread” perfectly describes Gen. Al Sisi’s decision to send Egyptian soldiers to Somalia. This expression highlights how reckless individuals often plunge into dangerous situations without considering the risks, while wiser people would steer clear of them.
Unless we have a short memory, we should remember that before Ethiopia, even the mighty Americans were involved in Somalia. They eventually had to leave and rely on an independent contractor like Meles Zenawi to deal with the fast-marching al-Shabaab.
AMISOM (African Union Mission in Somalia) has lost over 1,800 soldiers since 2007, with the largest number coming from Ethiopia. In fact, before 2007, all the casualties were Ethiopian soldiers, numbering in the thousands, including officers. The mission aimed to stabilize Somalia and combat insurgent groups like al-Shabaab.
Now, General Al-Sisi is sending Egyptians to die in Somalia. Egypt’s involvement is not going to help Mogadishu or stop the resurgence of al-Shabaab because Al-Sisi isn’t sending soldiers to fight al-Shabaab but to confront Ethiopians on Somali territory. Honestly speaking, the power and territorial integrity of the Somali President are not Egypt’s primary interests; instead, Egypt aims to exploit Somalis for its geopolitical interests.
Egypt may replicate its actions in Sudan by intervening in Somalia. Egypt and Sudan had a joint defense agreement and even conducted joint military exercises to intimidate Ethiopia over the issue of GERD. Now GERD is complete and the fear of doom day propaganda didn’t happen. Gen. Al-Burhan made a mistake by inviting the Egyptian army and invading the Ethiopian territories. Now, where is he? Has he got any value for Egypt?
The presence of the Egyptian army in Somalia could only attract the Muslim Brotherhood, international jihadists, and Al-Shabaab, plunging the country into chaos. Egypt is ill-equipped to combat a fanatical group like Al-Shabaab. The real danger lies in those seeking to oppose Al-Sisi, who may also head to Somalia, causing Egypt to bleed in hostile territory.
I doubt Egypt can withstand 1800 soldiers’ losses. The Ethiopian government shows little regard for its soldiers who are paid 25 dollars a month. They die in thousands and the Generals do not even bother to tell the families. Families often learn of a soldier’s fate only when communication ceases.
Now General Al-Sisi is venturing into treacherous waters, potentially facing challenges domestically with his Jonny came late policy approach after the completion of GERD.
Unfortunately, this situation may inadvertently provide a lifeline to Abiy Ahmed, who is struggling not to lose the Capital City. He has lost control of half the country to rebel forces that are Tigray, Amhara and Oromia.
After Abiy signed an agreement, and the Somali president made a hostile speech, I wrote to Somalia PM and cautioned on a Somali website against being provoked by Abiy Ahmed’s reckless rhetoric.
Abiy struggles with traits associated with narcissistic personality disorder, compelling him to deceive and make grand declarations. Previously he said Ethiopia has made a peace with Eritrea to deceive the Nobel prize committee. He also has claimed that famine is over because he has technology to induce rain and on another occasion he asserted that Ethiopia is in a space race, despite the previous government contracting a 2.5 km weather satellite that was launched by a Chinese company. He might one day come to talk about his mineral right on the moon.
I pleaded to the Somali president to give up the publicity he is craving. My point was even if Somalia gave permission, he wouldn’t be able to develop it. I am afraid the Somali president is the same as Abiy—both make grandiose threats without strategic thinking. I pointed out that Abiy cannot build a port because he has already bankrupted Ethiopia.
Abiy has no financial means to construct a naval base, which would require a minimum of $20 billion five times the budget of GERD, along with an additional $10 billion for naval ships and missiles, and another $10 billion for roads and a commercial port. He lacked the capability to execute such plans and his speech that “thanks God, we have got a port” was for local political consumption. Colonel Abiy’s claims seem to stem from his grandiose delusions.
Now, can Egypt afford 1,800 casualties? I guess Gen. Al-Sisi is not popular among Islamist organizations and has caused significant suffering to the Muslim Brotherhood. It’s likely that fringe elements of the Brotherhood would align with Al-Shabaab.
Furthermore, Egypt’s current stance of blocking its borders to Palestinians, exposing them to bombings, could attract Islamist and jihadist groups to Somalia seeking to settle grievances against Al-Sisi. Ethiopia, fearing an Egyptian presence in Somalia, might even support certain Somali clans to challenge the Somali Prime Minister or wink to Al-Shebab.
Thus, the presence of the Egyptian army poses greater risks to Somalia and Egypt than to Ethiopia. The unfortunate reality is that Abiy may benefit from this chaos, leveraging nationalist sentiments and patriotic rhetoric to buy time in office.
Al-Sisi’s decision to engage in Somalia may ultimately be a venture he will regret. The Grand Renaissance Dam is complete, the Ethiopia political situation is worse than Egyptians can make it. So Egyptian involvement is going to unite Ethiopians while Egypt has to shoulder all the death and casualties fighting all the Islamist insurgents.
Rasselas Welde is a political and economic analyst on the Ethiopian and East African geopolitical issues
Editor’s note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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“Thus, the presence of the Egyptian army poses greater risks to Somalia and Egypt than to Ethiopia.”
Agree completely.
10,000 soldiers mean nothing, one cannot attempt to occupy Somalia itself with such a small force, and should not be a concern for even occupying a few villages in Ethiopia.
If the Sudan Egypt military collaboration did not pan out to be a threat to GERD (having close proximity to it), what would the Somalia Egypt military collaboration be able to do, while being hundreds of miles away from the alleged target for Al Sisi.
In my opinion, Al Sisi is having huge political problems at home, due to his total inaction as the Palestinians (women & children ) are being massacred by Israel for nearly a year, and his own population is not very happy with him, and with this side-show to Somalia he is trying to change the subject… an attempt to utilize the old tactic “… not here, look over there”, to buy time and divert the anger he faces at home.
Last I read, Ethiopia has /had a 10,000 strong force in Somalia as part of the ‘peace keeping mission’ that was in place before the new one was announced that includes Egyptian soldiers, therefore, all the Ethiopian gov. has to do is, move those same 10,000 of its forces (that are ‘experienced’ dealing with “Islamist insurgents”) to the Ethiopian & Somalia border creating 3 or 4 military-camps with 2500 soldiers each to monitor & defend the border not only from incoming ‘insurgents’, but also to STOP ‘cattle-theft’ that has been reported to have been happening along the-length of the same long border line.
In fact, it would be a great long-term military strategy to have several out-posts (military camps) in that region considering the long & endless-political & social-instability in Somalia.
Be well.
Besides, Al Sisi and Egypt-generals seems to be ‘sleep-walking’ ( ‘comfortably numb’) dangerously, thinking this is 1800’s (though we beat them twice then as well) and by doing this multiple shenanigan’s will force Ethiopia to sign their “binding agreement”, they must know that wont happen in a million years.
Furthermore, they seem to be forgetting they have over there an old relic called ‘Aswan Dam’ located about 1052 km away from Northern Ethiopia that can easily be turned into a “Tourist attraction” like their Pyramids… without transporting a single Ethiopian soldier but a single missile or a drone.
We are not equals when it comes to wars and keeping one’s Independence.( these (owned) pygmies (dwarfs) need to read their history).
Link = en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian%E2%80%93Ethiopian_War
Our use of ‘an iron hand in a velvet glove’ between brothers within our-borders shouldn’t be misunderstood to be the same (velvet gloved hands) when it comes to any outside-enemy (even those that have purchased-internal-proxy (bandas) among us), they will be CRASHED as always, without any mercy.
It is a time tested tradition!
Be well.
Those that raised their hands on the old country all meet their fate in the most humiliating ways. Crispi was dragged out of the office in 1896 like a disgraced thief. Mussolini did not meet his final fate posing up but hanging down like a pelt of an otter just hunted down in the fur trade. Siad Barre was beaten and chased out of his country as if he was caught robbing a bank in the Old West and died on a dirty sheet in a hospital built for the homeless in Lagos, Nigeria. Nasser in his final days used to look like that disheveled homeless wino from the streets of LA, Chicago or New York and suddenly suffocated to death of diabetes he got from gobbling down too much sugary carb. Not a different fate awaits that Halawa drunk rabid dog el-Sisi if he dares to do something ‘funny’ to the those innocent black folks whose only ‘crime’ is their working hard to take themselves out of darkness without taking away the share of water from the Blue Nile River of their historical neighbors near and afar. Not even a spoonful!!!
Okay bigots and connivers in Minnesota, LA, Toronto, Tennessee, Michigan, Oslo and Oceania! Keep on wiggling your hips to the dagadash of el-Sisi because that may be your last chance dancing!!! Mark my word for it!!!