“The question isn’t whether Ethiopia should open up. Of course it should. But how, to whom, and on whose terms – those are the questions that matter,” says Kebour Ghenna
By Kebour Ghenna
They say when you hear a rustle in the bushes, it’s probably the wind. But in Ethiopia these days, it could be something else entirely – a stock exchange, perhaps… or the whispers of foreign investors peering into our pantry.
You see, I’ve been following the news. The Commercial Bank of Ethiopia – yes, the same 100% government-owned monolith – is now playing in a new sandbox. It’s launched a subsidiary: NBE Capital, with half a million U.S. dollars in capital, 70% of it coming from the state-run CBE and the rest from some “undisclosed private shareholders” – mostly foreigners, we assume.
Now, if there’s anything I’ve learned from years of watching financial experiments unfold around the world, it’s this: when something shiny is being sold as a gift to the common man, the real prize is usually going to someone else.
The CEO of NBE Capital assures us that the firm’s mission is noble – to allow average Ethiopians to “own shares” and “build wealth.” A familiar promise. One we’ve heard before, in Lagos, in Buenos Aires, in Cairo. It’s the investor’s version of “trickle-down economics,” but this time, it’s dressed up in a habesha suit.
The reality? The average Ethiopian – struggling with inflation, taxes, and food prices – doesn’t have extra cash to invest in a portfolio of blue-chip dreams. The only thing they’ll be owning anytime soon is the fallout from policies that favor capital inflows and external control over local empowerment.
Could this be a runway for Ethiopian Airlines?
There’s growing chatter that NBE Capital will soon become the gateway for privatizing strategic national assets – starting with Ethiopian Airlines. The crown jewel. The one state-owned enterprise that flies higher than most in Africa.
Some fear, rightly so, that this stock exchange isn’t about expanding ownership – it’s about consolidating it. In other words, foreigners will help launch the exchange, bring “expertise,” and then buy up what they helped list.
The Investment Illusion
Ethiopia is caught in a strange dance: it courts foreign investors with one hand, while its other hand clutches tightly to its domestic economy. The result? A kind of schizophrenic policy regime – one part open-for-business, the other part closed-for-protection.
Now don’t get me wrong. Foreign direct investment (FDI) can be good if it’s smart, strategic, and sensitive to local realities. But in Ethiopia, here’s what really happens:
• FDI enters with great fanfare – flags, ribbon-cuttings, smiling politicians.
• It sets up in low-skill, high-volume sectors – think leather, flowers, textiles.
• Then it exports profits, leaves low wages, and asks for more incentives.
Where’s the catch? Well, Ethiopia’s GDP goes up… but so do inequality, debt, and dependency. A Growth Story With Cracks
Remember, Ethiopia has been growing – even before the IMF came knocking in June 2024. But the quality of that growth? That’s where the shoe pinches.
Ethiopia’s economy is like a balloon: impressive in size, fragile in structure. It’s built on:
• Debt-financed infrastructure that drives inflation and soaks up forex.
• Commodity exports vulnerable to every whim of the global market.
• Foreign capital that smiles today, but vanishes tomorrow at the first sign of political or social instability.
And now we add investment banking to the mix – with shadowy foreign partners and vague promises of democratized finance.
I ask: who really benefits?
I ask: who really benefits? Is it the average Ethiopian, promised a piece of the pie through share ownership schemes? Or is it the well-connected insiders and foreign financiers, already lining up for a front-row seat to the sell-off?
I know some would argue it’s about empowering the Ethiopian public—offering citizens a chance to invest, grow wealth, and own a piece of national champions like Ethio Telecom or Ethiopian Airlines. But a closer look reveals the old patterns: strategic businesses being primed for market exposure, foreign-led capital firms setting the pace, and a financial ecosystem too underdeveloped to ensure fair play. Without strong institutions, robust regulation, and a plan to protect long-term national interests, the promise of inclusive growth may quickly give way to elite capture and foreign dominance.
If this is Ethiopia’s great economic leap, the country must be careful it doesn’t land in someone else’s pocket.
The China Contradiction
We often hear: “Well, China is doing it, so why can’t we?” Fair point. But here’s the difference:
• China builds its own banks, tech giants, and policy think tanks.
• It invites FDI into sectors that serve its own strategic goals.
• And it never gives up control of its crown jewels – you don’t see the Shanghai Airport being floated on the Nasdaq.
Meanwhile in Ethiopia, we risk handing over not just the keys to the vault—but the whole vault itself.
My final thought
CBE Capital may be wrapped in a bow of national progress – but read the label closely. It says “Handle With Caution.”
Because when state-run banks start running investment arms, partnering with unnamed foreign investors, and talking about giving “shares to the people,” history tells us: this isn’t democratization. It’s corporatization.
The question isn’t whether Ethiopia should open up. Of course it should. But how, to whom, and on whose terms – those are the questions that matter.
Otherwise, in 10 years, we might wake up to find the stock market working for the few… while the average Ethiopian can’t afford to buy Teff.
Editor’s Note : The article appeared first on the personal social media page of Kebour Ghenna
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