Habte H
Ethiopia has once again returned to the global stage. This time, the headlines are not dominated by conflict, famine, or bad news, but by history in the making. The inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been celebrated not only within Ethiopia but across the continent. Many African media outlets are framing the dam as more than a mega-infrastructure project. For them, it symbolizes an achievement comparable in spirit to the Battle of Adwa – a second triumph over centuries of doubt, intervention, and external dominance.
Yet behind this celebration lies a sobering reality. While the dam might showcase Ethiopia’s engineering and collective resilience, the country’s political future remains dangerously uncertain. The Gray clouds are not cast by rebel movements alone but by the leadership style of Abiy Ahmed and his close circle. Unless Abiy rethinks his conception of power, Ethiopia risks moving from historic achievement to national disintegration.
I write not as a sympathizer of rebellion but as someone compelled to speak the truth. Ethiopia today faces only two paths forward. One is constructive but difficult: Abiy adjusts his approach, abandons illusions of prophetic leadership, and embraces the kind of democratic politics required in the 21st century. The other is destructive: Abiy is forced out through resistance and instability, which would come at an enormous cost to the country, possibly leading to fragmentation.
For Ethiopia to survive and thrive, the first path is the only viable choice.
The First Path: Abiy Must Recalibrate
If Abiy is willing to lead Ethiopia into the future, he must accept that his current trajectory is unsustainable. The obsession with eliminating opposition, monopolizing power, and presenting himself as a prophet-like visionary is a recipe for collapse. No government in today’s world can silence political differences indefinitely – not even with overwhelming force, not even if it fights for a hundred years. The laws of politics, like gravity, cannot be suspended by a single leader’s will.
Here are nine urgent steps Abiy must take if he truly wishes to save his government and his country:
- Remove destructive advisers. Good advisers always seek peaceful, long-term solutions, while bad advisers push for force, gamble on short-term gains, and feed the leader’s ego. Abiy must rid himself of ill-intentioned and reckless advisers and instead recruit competent, neutral voices who prioritize Ethiopia’s stability, unity, and future.
- Trust that only genuine democratic processes provide real solutions. History shows that fabricated or cosmetic forms of democracy – where elections are staged, opposition is silenced, and institutions are weakened – collapse under their own contradictions. Ethiopia cannot survive on appearances. Only authentic, inclusive, and accountable democracy can serve as the nation’s lifeline. Abiy must embrace this truth and act upon it.
- Redefine victory. True victory does not come from silencing opponents or suppressing dissent. It comes from earning legitimacy, building trust, and creating lasting peace. Strength lies not in domination but in reconciliation and the development of resilient democratic institutions.
- Declare readiness for unconditional peace. Ethiopia cannot afford endless war. Abiy’s government must openly declare – across all media – that it is ready for peace talks under any conditions, including those most favourable to rebel groups (such as mediation abroad and independent mediators), with no preconditions other than those strictly necessary to safeguard national unity. This should not be mistaken for weakness but recognized as the only bold and timely step that can save the country before it is too late.
- Abandon illusions of prophecy. Leadership in the 21st century cannot rest on self-styled visions or the influence of false prophets from certain religious circles. In politics, there are no prophets – only pragmatic leaders who listen, compromise, and adapt. Abiy must let go of the mysticism of destiny and embrace democratic realism.
- Release all political prisoners. Reconciliation begins with freedom. Detaining political leaders and activists undermines any claim to democratic intent. Their immediate release would signal a readiness for national healing and open the door to dialogue.
- Accept political diversity. Ethiopia is home to many political voices. Attempting to extinguish them through repression is not only futile but dangerous. A modern state can survive only by creating space for competing visions and allowing them to coexist within democratic rules.
- Stop ethnic calculations. Preventing groups – especially the Amhara or any northern population – from participating fully in politics is short-sighted and destructive. In a genuine democracy, anyone who wins the people’s trust can lead, regardless of ethnicity. The sole criterion must be national citizenship: being Ethiopian.
- Trust domestic mechanisms of mediation. Ethiopia has a long tradition of respected elders, religious leaders, and community mediators. Genuine peace processes must be entrusted to these actors, not monopolized by political elites. Strengthening these trusted voices would ground reconciliation in Ethiopia’s own cultural and moral foundations.
If Abiy embraces this path, Ethiopia’s problems, while serious, will become manageable. The country has the human capital, the history, and the moral depth to rebuild itself as a democracy that thrives.
The Second Path: A Devastating Outcome
The alternative is grim. If Abiy persists in his authoritarian illusions, he risks being removed – but only at enormous cost. Ethiopia would not simply transition to a new government. It could descend into widespread instability, with ethnic divisions deepening, regions seeking separation, and external actors exploiting the chaos.
This is not speculation; it is the natural outcome of leaders who confuse personal survival with national destiny. By clinging to unchecked power, Abiy risks triggering the very disintegration he claims to prevent. The GERD, instead of being remembered as a unifying symbol of Ethiopian pride, could become the last great monument before fragmentation.
A Final Appeal
Abiy Ahmed still has a choice. The first path – democratic accommodation – demands humility, courage, and the willingness to put Ethiopia before ego. The second path – entrenchment and repression, looks easy to the mind and ego – but will almost certainly lead to downfall and to national devastation.
History offers leaders few moments of clarity. This is one such moment. Ethiopia’s survival and prosperity depend not on dams, armies, or propaganda, but on a leader’s capacity to embrace democracy, reconcile differences, and guide his people toward unity in diversity.
Abiy must decide. The window is narrow. May he choose wisely, for himself and for Ethiopia.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
__
Support Borkena : https://borkena.com/subscribe-borkena/
Join our Telegram Channel : t.me/borkena
Like borkena on Facebook
To submit Press Release, send submission to info@borkena.com
Add your business to Ethiopian Business Listing / Ethiopian Business Directory
Join the conversation. Follow us on X (Formerly Twitter) @zborkena to get the latest Ethiopian News updates regularly.