From Peace Prize to Civil War: The Tragedy of Premature Acclaim and Ethiopia’s Descent  Under Abiy Ahmed

“Ethiopia’s future cannot  be dictated externally. It must be forged from within—by Ethiopians committed to transcending  ethnic divides, rebuilding democratic governance, and pursuing inclusive national reconciliation.” Caleb T.

Caleb Ta (Dr.) 

Abstract 

In 2019, Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for  his early political reforms and efforts in ending a decades-long conflict with Eritrea. However, in  the years that followed, Ethiopia descended into multiple civil conflicts, humanitarian crises, and  economic degradation. This paper critically analyzes the consequences of awarding the Nobel  Peace Prize prematurely and examines the deterioration of political, social, and economic  conditions under Abiy Ahmed’s regime. Drawing on conflict escalation in the Amhara region,  the rise of the Fano movement, and the broader implications for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa,  the paper explores the ramifications of misplaced international endorsements.

Introduction 

In October 2019, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to Ethiopian  Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for his peacemaking efforts with Eritrea and initial democratic  reforms. This decision was made more on aspirational hope than evidence of durable systemic  transformation. The aftermath of the award has been marked by one of the most destabilizing and  violent periods in Ethiopia’s modern history—characterized by ethnic conflict, regional  militarization, political repression, economic collapse, and a widespread humanitarian disaster.  This paper argues that the Nobel Prize was prematurely awarded and inadvertently legitimized a  regime that has since overseen some of the most severe political and humanitarian crises in  Africa. 

Early Reforms and Misplaced Optimism 

Upon assuming office in April 2018, Abiy Ahmed enacted a series of reforms that initially  garnered widespread acclaim. Political prisoners were released, banned opposition groups were  allowed to return, media restrictions were eased, and a landmark peace deal was signed with  Eritrea, ending two decades of military stalemate. The reforms signaled a break from the  authoritarian past of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). 

However, these reforms proved largely cosmetic and were not accompanied by structural  changes to Ethiopia’s ethnically federalized political system. Abiy’s Medemer ideology— emphasizing unity—was idealistic and failed to account for entrenched historical grievances,  interethnic rivalries, and regional aspirations for autonomy. The promise of democratization  quickly gave way to centralized power consolidation and suppression of dissent. 

From Peace to War: Escalation in Tigray and Amhara 

By November 2020, Ethiopia had descended into full-scale war. The federal government’s  military offensive against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) sparked a catastrophic  civil conflict. Verified reports by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and UN  human rights investigators documented widespread war crimes: mass killings, systematic  sexual violence, and starvation used as a weapon of war. 

• Over 600,000 people were estimated to have died in the Tigray conflict due to war related violence, famine, and healthcare collapse (Associated Press, 2023). • More than 2.5 million people were internally displaced from Tigray alone during the  height of the conflict (IOM Ethiopia, 2022). 

• Humanitarian aid access was deliberately blocked by the federal government and  Eritrean troops, exacerbating famine conditions. 

Following the Pretoria Agreement of 2022, which halted active hostilities in Tigray, violence  spread to other regions, particularly Amhara. The government’s attempt to dismantle the Amhara  Special Forces and Fano militias sparked intense armed resistance. 

Evidence of Intentional Government Drone Strikes on Civilians in Amhara (2023–2025)

Between 2023 and 2025, Ethiopia’s Amhara region witnessed a sustained campaign of drone  strikes, many of which targeted civilian populations rather than purely military objectives.  While the total number of drone attacks likely exceeds dozens, the following ten major  incidents are highlighted as documented evidence of intentional or reckless government  action against civilians. 

Key Documented Civilian Drone Strikes (Representative Cases): 

1. Finote Selam (Aug 13, 2023) – 30 killed, 55+ injured 

2. Waber (Nov 9, 2023) – 13 civilians killed at a bus stop 

3. Wegel Tena (Nov 30 & Dec 5, 2023) – 15 civilians killed in two separate strikes 4. Sasit (Feb 19, 2024) – 30 civilians killed on a civilian transport truck 5. Gerchech (Oct 11–14, 2024) – Over 100 civilians killed in convoy 

6. Achefer (Oct 26, 2024) – 50+ civilians killed in a populated area 

7. Duberete (Nov 5, 2024) – 30+ killed at a civilian gathering 

8. Gedeb (Apr 17, 2025) – Over 100 civilians killed in a convoy 

9. Ambasel District (Feb 13, 2025) – 4 civilians killed (3 children, 1 woman) 10. Zenbo Kebele (Feb 7, 2025) – Pregnant woman and daughter killed in a home  strike 

Purpose of This List: 

• Not exhaustive: The full number of drone attacks is higher and may include  undocumented or under-reported incidents. 

• Evidence of pattern: These strikes show a deliberate and systematic use of drones in  civilian-populated zones, which cannot be dismissed as collateral damage. • Impunity and lack of accountability: Despite widespread reports and satellite confirmed damage, no credible investigations or prosecutions have followed. 

These drone attacks represent only a fraction of the total strikes carried out in Amhara, but they  clearly illustrate a pattern of intentional or indiscriminate targeting of civilians by  Ethiopian federal forces. This pattern contributes to the argument that the government has used  drone warfare not only for military objectives, but also to intimidate, punish, or suppress civilian populations in restive regions like Amhara. 

Humanitarian Consequences: 

These strikes contributed to mass civilian displacement, psychological trauma, and infrastructure  destruction. Human rights organizations and media outlets have condemned the attacks as  indiscriminate and in violation of international law. 

This pattern of violence underscores the escalating conflict in Amhara and the growing use of  drones in domestic counterinsurgency, often at a devastating cost to civilians. 

Summary of the Civilian Impact

These drone strikes have had a devastating impact on the civilian population in the Amhara  region, resulting in at least 400 deaths and hundreds more injuries. The attacks have targeted  residential areas, civilian gatherings, and transportation hubs, leading to widespread fear and  displacement. International human rights organizations have condemned these actions,  highlighting violations of international humanitarian law and the need for accountability. 

Ethnic Federalism, Historical Grievances, and Institutional Collapse 

Ethiopia’s 1995 Constitution, which codifies ethnic federalism, has exacerbated competition for  land, resources, and political control. Under Abiy’s leadership, ethnic tensions were not diffused  but inflamed, with several communities, particularly the Amhara, alleging systemic  marginalization. 

• Between 2018 and 2024, over 20,000 Amhara civilians were killed in ethnic pogroms in  Benishangul-Gumuz, Oromia, and Metekel, with little to no federal accountability. • Ethnic displacement rose to over 4.5 million people nationwide (IDMC, 2024). • In regions such as Oromia, armed insurgencies like the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) have declared a de facto civil war against the state, further fragmenting national unity. 

Institutions once seen as technocratic and apolitical—such as Ethiopian Airlines, Ethio  Telecom, and the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia—have increasingly been accused of serving  ethnic or political interests aligned with the Prosperity Party. 

Since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed assumed office in 2018, Ethiopia’s Oromia region has  experienced a series of targeted attacks against ethnic Amhara communities. These incidents,  marked by mass killings and the destruction of settlements, have been attributed to various  actors, including the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), Oromia Special Forces (OSF), and, in  some cases, federal troops. The following is a detailed account of major atrocities documented  during this period: 

Major Massacres of Amhara Civilians in Oromia (2018–2024) 

1. Gimbi Massacre (Tole Kebele, June 2022) 

o On June 18, 2022, over 400 Amhara civilians were killed in Tole Kebele, Gimbi  district, West Wollega Zone. Survivors reported that OLA fighters surrounded  villages, executing residents and burning homes. Satellite imagery confirmed  widespread destruction. 

2. Qelem Wollega Massacre (July 2022) 

o In early July 2022, at least 150 Amhara civilians were killed in Hawa Gelan  district, Kelem Wollega Zone. The Ethiopian government attributed the attack to  the OLA, though the group denied responsibility. 

3. Gida Kiremu Massacres (August 2021) 

o Between August 18–20, 2021, the OLA reportedly killed 150 Amhara civilians in  Gida Kiremu, East Wollega Zone. Subsequent retaliatory attacks by Amhara  militias resulted in the deaths of 60 Oromo civilians. 

4. Abo Church Massacre (March 2021)

o On March 5, 2021, suspected OLA gunmen attacked Debos Kebele in East  Wollega Zone, killing 29 Amhara civilians, including women and children, during  a church gathering. 

5. Gawa Qanqa Massacre (November 2020) 

o On November 2, 2020, gunmen attacked a schoolyard in Gawa Qanqa, West  Wollega Zone, killing between 32 and 54 Amhara civilians. The Ethiopian  government blamed the OLA, which denied involvement. 

6. Kiremu Town Killings (November 2022) 

o Between November 18–20, 2022, the OSF reportedly killed at least 25 Amhara  civilians in Kiremu town, East Wollega Zone. Local officials were allegedly  complicit in the attacks. 

7. Ongoing Campaigns (2022–2023) 

o Reports indicate a systematic campaign against Amhara communities in East  Wollega and Horo Guduru Wollega Zones, involving killings, sexual violence,  and forced displacement. The OLA, OSF, and Qeerro youth groups have been  implicated, with allegations of regional government complicity. 

Patterns and Implications 

These incidents reflect a pattern of targeted violence against Amhara civilians in Oromia,  characterized by: 

• Ethnic Targeting: Victims were primarily Amhara, with attacks often occurring in areas  where they are minorities. 

• Perpetrator Diversity: Multiple actors, including insurgent groups, regional forces, and,  at times, federal troops, have been implicated. 

• Government Response: There have been consistent reports of delayed or inadequate  responses from federal authorities, leading to perceptions of impunity. 

The cumulative effect of these attacks has been the displacement of millions and the erosion of  trust in state institutions. Addressing this crisis requires transparent investigations, accountability  for perpetrators, and comprehensive reforms to Ethiopia’s federal structure to ensure the  protection of all ethnic groups. 

Ethnic Federalism and Escalating Tensions 

The Ethiopian federal structure delineates regions along ethnic lines, granting them significant  autonomy, including the right to secede. While designed to protect minority rights, this  framework has often marginalized certain groups, notably the Amhara, who have faced systemic  exclusion in regions like Benishangul-Gumuz and Oromia. In Benishangul-Gumuz, the regional  constitution recognizes only five “native” ethnic groups, effectively rendering others as second class citizens without adequate political representation. 

This marginalization has fueled resentment and violence. In the Metekel Zone of Benishangul Gumuz, clashes between the Gumuz militia and Amhara communities have led to significant  casualties and displacement. The conflict, rooted in disputes over land and identity, has been 

exacerbated by the federal government’s failure to address grievances and hold perpetrators  accountable. 

Massacres and Displacement 

Between 2018 and 2024, Ethiopia witnessed numerous ethnically motivated attacks. In Oromia,  the assassination of singer Hachalu Hundessa in 2020 sparked widespread violence against  Amhara civilians, resulting in over 200 deaths and the displacement of thousands. Similarly, in  Benishangul-Gumuz, coordinated attacks by the Gumuz militia targeted Amhara communities,  leading to mass killings and the destruction of property. Reports indicate that some government  officials were complicit, providing support to militias and failing to intervene. 

As a result of these conflicts, Ethiopia has one of the highest numbers of internally displaced  persons globally, with over 4.5 million people uprooted from their homes. 

Institutional Erosion and Ethnic Favoritism 

Institutions once considered apolitical, such as Ethiopian Airlines, Ethio Telecom, and the  Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, have faced accusations of ethnic favoritism. Critics argue that the  Prosperity Party, under Abiy’s leadership, has leveraged these institutions to consolidate power  among specific ethnic groups, undermining their neutrality and efficiency. 

This politicization has eroded public trust and hindered the institutions’ ability to function  effectively, further exacerbating the country’s challenges. 

Economic Collapse and Social Unrest 

Ethiopia’s economic landscape, once hailed as one of Africa’s most promising, has experienced  dramatic deterioration under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s leadership. What was once a rapidly  growing economy has been beset by surging inflation, severe currency devaluation, rising  external debt, agricultural disruption, and mounting social unrest. 

Inflation and Currency Devaluation 

According to the World Bank, Ethiopia’s annual inflation reached 30.2% in 2023, with food  inflation surpassing 60% in some regions. This surge has been compounded by the sharp  depreciation of the Ethiopian birr, which lost more than 50% of its value against the U.S. dollar  between 2020 and 2024. The weakening currency has driven up the cost of imports, placing  immense strain on consumers and businesses alike, and further eroding household purchasing  power. 

External Debt and Fiscal Strain 

Ethiopia’s external debt rose to $28.9 billion by mid-2024. Following a default on a $1 billion  Eurobond in 2023, the government entered debt restructuring negotiations with the International 

Monetary Fund and World Bank. These talks, now in their final stages, aim to provide fiscal  breathing room, though public confidence remains low amid persistent economic instability. 

Youth Unemployment and Growing Discontent 

Youth unemployment has surged, becoming a catalyst for social unrest. Many young Ethiopians  express deep dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, attributing it to economic  mismanagement, limited job opportunities, and political repression. A 2024 Afrobarometer  survey revealed that a majority of Ethiopian youth believe the nation is moving in the wrong  direction, fueling protests and political disillusionment. 

Institutional Erosion and Civil Society Repression 

In response to the escalating crisis, the government has increasingly turned to authoritarian tactics.  Civil society institutions, including universities and media organizations, have faced heightened  surveillance, censorship, and repression. These crackdowns have further alienated citizens and  constrained avenues for peaceful dissent, deepening the country’s political and social  polarization. 

Ethiopia’s economic unraveling under Abiy Ahmed’s regime is not merely a consequence of  global headwinds, but a reflection of internal mismanagement, authoritarian overreach, and the  breakdown of institutional governance. Without comprehensive reforms, transparent debt relief  mechanisms, and meaningful investment in youth and agriculture, Ethiopia risks prolonged  economic hardship and deepening social fragmentation. 

Humanitarian Crisis and International Response 

Ethiopia now hosts the largest population of internally displaced people (IDPs) in the world,  with more than 6.8 million displaced as of early 2024 (IOM). 

• Access to humanitarian aid remains inconsistent, especially in conflict zones like  Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray. 

• Schools, hospitals, and marketplaces have been bombed or repurposed for military use. • Sexual and gender-based violence has reached epidemic levels, with survivors reporting  abuse by both federal and rebel forces (MSF, 2023). 

The international response has been cautious. While the U.S. and EU have issued travel  advisories, withheld non-humanitarian aid, and called for accountability, no substantial  multilateral pressure or peace enforcement mechanism has emerged. The Nobel Committee has  remained silent, despite the vast discrepancy between Abiy’s award citation and the on-ground  reality. 

Abiy Ahmed’s descent from a Nobel Peace Prize laureate to the overseer of a multi-front civil  war reflects a disturbing trend in global politics: premature international endorsement of  reformist leaders who later embrace authoritarianism. These cases demonstrate how 

international legitimacy can be weaponized by domestic leaders to silence criticism, crush  opposition, and erode institutions. 

Conclusion 

Abiy Ahmed’s rise and fall represent one of the most significant democratic reversals in 21st century Africa. Once celebrated as a reformist peacemaker and recipient of the 2019 Nobel  Peace Prize, Abiy’s early symbolic gestures were mistaken for durable systemic change. That  premature international endorsement granted him unwarranted legitimacy and shielded his  government from early scrutiny as Ethiopia descended into war, authoritarianism, and economic  collapse. 

Instead of uniting a fractured nation, Abiy’s administration deepened ethnic polarization. His  government’s brutal campaigns in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia have involved war crimes, ethnic  cleansing, and widespread displacement—particularly targeting the Amhara population.  Ethiopia’s ethnic federalist framework, already fragile, has been weaponized under his rule to  marginalize communities and suppress dissent, accelerating the fragmentation of the state. 

National institutions that once symbolized unity—like Ethiopian Airlines and Ethio Telecom— have been politicized, while regional autonomy and civil liberties have eroded under the  Prosperity Party’s centralized control. Concurrently, Ethiopia’s economy has deteriorated,  plagued by inflation, debt, youth unemployment, and food insecurity. What was once seen as a  rising African economy is now mired in crisis. 

The impact extends beyond Ethiopia’s borders. The destabilization of this key state threatens the  fragile security of the Horn of Africa, contributing to regional instability, mass displacement, and  the collapse of diplomatic progress. 

Abiy Ahmed’s case is a cautionary tale for the international community. Like other leaders  prematurely hailed as reformers—such as Aung San Suu Kyi and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan—Abiy  used international acclaim to entrench authoritarian rule. The Nobel Peace Prize, awarded for  optics over substance, became a shield rather than a standard. 

Moving forward, global actors must shift from symbolic accolades to long-term engagement  centered on accountability, human rights, and institution-building. Yet, Ethiopia’s future cannot  be dictated externally. It must be forged from within—by Ethiopians committed to transcending  ethnic divides, rebuilding democratic governance, and pursuing inclusive national reconciliation.  Whether the country survives as a unified, stable state will depend on its ability to transform  deep fault lines into a foundation for justice, equality, and peace.

Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com

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