Some, among Amhara nationalists, believe that Amharas unyielding stand about the unity of Ethiopia and being preoccupied with the unity of the country is leaving the ethnic group, unlike others, without an institutional body to defend itself. Considering developments in the politics of post 1991 Ethiopia, and what has happened to the Amhara in the stated period, they have a point. The Tigres are controlling the country and its vital institutes like the military, foreign affairs, security, the economy and other sectors by organizing themselves under the TPLF, the Oromos have political parties, diaspora based TV stations and activists dedicated to lead the struggle of the Oromo and Somalis are fighting to make their Somali region, Ogaden, an independent country separated from Ethiopia. Currently, among the major ethnic groups in the country, it is only Amharas who don’t have ethnic based institutes to defend their interest and Amharas don’t have plan B if Ethiopia ends up Yugoslavia.
The rise of Amhara nationalism could have unexpected outcomes for the future of Ethiopia. On one side, Amhara nationalism would send a strong signal to other ethnic based nationalists in the country who are targeting Amharas that if they continue to attack Amharas, Amharas could also organize themselves and pay in kind. The message is clear -we are about 30 million strong and you could not attack us in our country without consequences. On the other hand, it could also lead to confrontation and conflict with other ethnic nationalists especially with the Tigre nationalists who are controlling every aspect of life in the country and the Oromo nationalists who are trying their best to be more assertive in the future Ethiopia.
A lot of Tigre nationalists and the Oromo nationalists openly encourage Amhara nationalism. There could be different reasons for that. The Tigre nationalists encourage it because they want to masquerade as Ethiopian nationalist as they are leading the country for the past quarter of a century and lately started to realize that in the last 25 years Ethiopia is changed into their economic and political empire and appearing as Ethiopian nationalist than ethnic nationalist would give them more acceptance whereas the Oromo nationalist want to emerge as the uncontested leading political force that challenges the incumbents. Both believe that a rise in Amhara nationalism could disintegrate or at least weaken the Ethiopian unity camp which is considered by both as a powerful established contender. Besides one less established contender, if the unity camp is destroyed, Oromos and Tigres or those whose parents are from different ethnic groups especially those born in big urban centers like Addis Ababa, Nazareth, Harrar, Jimma, Debrezeit and other areas who are supporting the unity camp will not have a chance other than supporting ethnic based political movements. They are also aware from their own experience that creating ethnic based political movement is chaotic and would take long time before it gets shape. If the Oromos who have half a century experience of strong ethnic based political movements fails to bring a consensus among Oromos in pressing issues like unity versus secession, imagine how daunting it would be for the Amharas . Having said this, the Tigre and Oromo nationalists have to be careful in what they are wishing. Once it establishes itself, Amhara nationalism would be a potent entity to deal with and their political chicanery could backfire.
The biggest challenge of the rise of different ethnic based nationalisms within a country is the possibility of conflict and war among different competing ethnic groups. Usually ethnic nationalism movements have a high possibility of being hijacked by hardliners who never hesitate to drag people into war. In a country like Ethiopia, where the ethnic based federal system was implemented as a divide and rule mechanism and openly used to benefit one ethnic group while harming others, every group is lamenting how they are victimized by the other. There are also historical grievances. If there is someone who thinks working with the ethnic nationalists is better than dealing with Ethiopian nationalists, he has to think twice. Dealing with ethnic nationalists is a tricky, volatile game.
After the July 2016 showdown in Gondar where the well armed security forces that moved at night to kidnap Colonel Demeke, a prominent member of the wolkayt Committee, were annihilated by local people, many are wondering about what could be the possible effect of the arms bearing culture of the Amhara in the political dynamics of the country. But if there is anything such light weapons would play, it is a deterrent to genocide not to be openly committed by the minority lead government or other future possible bad wishers. By the way, it is not only the Amhara who have such culture; people in Tigray are also well armed and even within Amhara region, it is mostly farmers in the northern part of the region bordering Tigray and Sudan who have a strong tradition of arms bearing. The culture is developed partly due to the geographical location of the regions and a high risk of cross border attacks and banditry. But what we have seen in the last few months is that the people in Amhara region are using the weapons for self defense and as a deterrent against brutal government crackdown. Government security forces had acted relatively in restrained manner in localities where the people are well armed than unarmed areas. The stark contrast between the response of the government security forces to peaceful demonstrators in Gondar and Bahir Dar last July is a good example. In Gondar where the people are well armed, the government has allowed the demonstration to end up peacefully, whereas in Bahir Dar where people don’t have a strong culture of bearing arms, soldiers had fired live rounds to the peacefully demonstrating crowd and killed 51 persons in one day. Security forces heavy handed response to protesters in Oromia region is partly due to lack of such a disincentive as most of the people in the region don’t own guns.
Based on the current situation in the country, three possible scenarios could happen :
1. The status quo: if Amharas are continued to be targeted by the government and the supremacy of TPLF continued, Amhara nationalism will rise and at least in the short run will forge a front with oromo nationalists to fight the common enemy; this will result in a devastating civil war that could change the political and security dynamics in East Africa and even the Middle East and Europe. There will be a high possibility of disintegration of the country and ethnic cleansing and genocide could be committed in different parts of the country. The ethnic rivalry could also spiral into religious conflicts as there are overlaps between religious identities and ethnic identities in many localities. Foreign powers that have a vested interest could meddle in the conflicts and worsen the situation. Given the situation in Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea and Yemen, a civil war in Ethiopia mean the whole East Africa will be hit by a catastrophic maelstrom never seen before.
2. The formation of democratic government in the country: If the current TPLF led minority government is replaced by a democratic representative government, the imminent danger of civil war could be averted and the country would be transformed into a vibrant, peaceful country. Ethiopian nationalism will get a chance to strengthen itself and regional ethnic based identities will be reconciled with each other and Ethiopian nationalism in a democratic way. In the long run, if individual and group rights are respected and answered by a new constitution and the rule of law, people will start to develop identities based on economic class or other factors and especially rapid urbanization and economic growth could abate the rise in ethnic based nationalisms.
3. The current government is replaced by another oppressive government: The situation stated in scenario 1 will follow and the pattern of the conflict will depend on the nature of the new government and its policy.
The writer can be reached at : mast.dess@gmail.com
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