Eng. Abdi Ali Barkhad
Somaliland
The speech delivered by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud on June 26, 2026, attracted considerable attention across the Horn of Africa, particularly in Somaliland. For many years, relations between the Republic of Somaliland and the Federal Government of Somalia have been characterized by political confrontation, competing narratives over sovereignty, and disputes concerning security, territorial control, and international recognition. Against this backdrop, the President’s speech appeared notably different in tone from many of his previous statements regarding the Republic of Somaliland.
While some observers interpreted the speech as an attempt to reduce tensions and create a more constructive atmosphere for dialogue, others viewed it as a tactical adjustment driven by political and security realities facing the Federal Government in Mogadishu. From this perspective, the speech should be analyzed not only by its words but also by the strategic environment in which it was delivered.
A Changing Political Landscape
The Federal Government of Somalia is currently confronting multiple challenges simultaneously. The ongoing insurgency by Al-Shabaab continues to threaten national security. Relations between Mogadishu and several Federal Member States remain complicated. Political disagreements concerning constitutional reforms, electoral arrangements, and power-sharing continue to generate tensions within the federal system.
At the same time, Somaliland has maintained its separate political institutions for more than three decades, conducting multiple elections, building its own security structures, and operating independently from Mogadishu since restoring its sovereignty on May 18, 1991.
Against this backdrop, many Somaliland politicians believe that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s latest remarks should be viewed as part of a broader political strategy rather than a fundamental shift in policy.
Key Strategic Objectives Behind Speech
1. Avoiding a Direct Confrontation with Republic of Somaliland
One interpretation is that the Federal Government recognizes that opening a major confrontation with Somaliland would create an additional political and security burden at a time when Somalia is already facing significant internal challenges.
Many analysts believe that Mogadishu’s leadership understands that a prolonged conflict in Somaliland’s eastern regions could destabilize the wider Horn of Africa and attract increased international scrutiny. As a result, a temporary reduction in rhetoric may serve strategic interests while other priorities are addressed.
2. Building Political Support Ahead of Future Political Processes
Another possible objective is the consolidation of political alliances ahead of future constitutional and parliamentary developments. Clan representation remains a significant factor in Somalia’s political system. From this perspective, maintaining support among key constituencies is essential for the survival of any administration in Mogadishu. Consequently, policy toward Somaliland may also be influenced by domestic political calculations rather than solely by national policy considerations.
3. Recognition of Somaliland’s Security Capabilities
Over the last three decades, the Republic of Somaliland has developed its own military, police, coast guard, and intelligence institutions.
Many Somaliland supporters argue that the balance of power has changed significantly compared to previous decades. They point to Somaliland’s ability to maintain security across most of its territory and its increasing acquisition of modern military capabilities.
According to this view, Mogadishu may be seeking to avoid a situation in which tensions escalate into a wider military confrontation whose consequences would be difficult to predict.
4. Prioritizing Internal Somali Political Challenges
Another interpretation is that the Federal Government seeks to temporarily reduce tensions with Somaliland while focusing on disputes involving Federal Member States and ongoing security operations against Al-Shabaab.
Given limited political, financial, and military resources, governments often prioritize immediate threats. Consequently, some observers believe that Mogadishu may prefer to postpone major disputes with Somaliland until it strengthens its position elsewhere.
5. Managing International Perceptions
The international community has consistently encouraged dialogue between the Republic of Somaliland and Somalia. Many observers believe that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud understands that negotiations are unlikely to produce a restoration of the 1960 union. Nevertheless, by publicly expressing support for dialogue, the Federal Government can present itself as constructive and committed to peaceful engagement. Such a position may help reassure international partners that Mogadishu remains committed to diplomatic solutions rather than confrontation.
What Republic of Somaliland Expects
If the June 26 speech is intended as a genuine effort to improve relations, many Somalilanders believe that practical actions should follow.
End Interference in the Sool Region
One of the most sensitive issues remains the situation in the Sool region. Somaliland authorities maintain that Sool is an integral part of Somaliland’s territory and argue that external involvement has contributed to instability.
Many Somaliland supporters believe that reducing military activities and political interference in the region would represent an important confidence-building measure.
Remove Administrative Restrictions
Another concern involves administrative measures affecting travel, documentation, and movement between the Republic of Somaliland and Somalia.
Many Somaliland citizens believe that such measures create unnecessary obstacles and increase tensions between the two sides.
Implement Previous Agreements
Several rounds of talks between the Republic of Somaliland and Somalia have produced technical agreements in areas such as civil aviation and airspace management.
Many observers argue that implementing these agreements would help rebuild trust and demonstrate a genuine commitment to dialogue.
The Larger Question
A growing number of Somalilanders continue to ask why Mogadishu dedicates significant political attention to the Republic of Somaliland while Somalia faces major security and governance challenges elsewhere.
They point to the continuing threat posed by Al-Shabaab, tensions between the Federal Government and some Federal Member States, economic difficulties, and unresolved constitutional disputes. In their view, these issues should take priority over efforts aimed at challenging Somaliland’s political status.
The June 26 speech by interim President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud may represent either a tactical pause or a genuine attempt to open a new chapter in relations between Somaliland and Somalia. However, many Somaliland politicians remain skeptical, arguing that words alone are insufficient.
They contend that meaningful progress will depend on concrete actions, including respect for existing agreements, reduced tensions in disputed areas, and a commitment to peaceful coexistence.
Engineer Abdi Ali Barkhad is a Somali Electrical engineer, Consultant, political analyst, and writer known for his in-depth commentary on the politics of the Horn of Africa and international relations. He has published numerous articles analyzing current policies in the region and is a strong advocate for the cause of the Republic of Somaliland. He can be reached at : tra50526@gmail.com
Editor’s Note: Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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