The Second Presidency of Mohamed Farmaajo Awaits: Just ask Prime Minister Roble!

By Dr. M. Omar Hashi

This is quite a game, politics. There are no permanent enemies, and no permanent friends, only permanent interests.

William L. Clay, First Black US Congressman from Missouri

“Know yourself and know your enemy, and you will never be defeated.”

Sun Tzu, Chinese military general, strategist, philosopher

In May 2021, the political fortunes of Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo in Somalia were bleak with the unprecedented re-election of a triumphant Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud. Mohamed Farmaajo’s future viability as a candidate was altogether questioned and a political comeback was seen as improbable, if not, impossible. Today, Farmaajo is the undisputed president-in-waiting for the upcoming 2026 presidential election. How and why Farmaajo achieved the impossible needs to be reckon with.

 The seeds of Farmaajo’s current victory lies is his deep understanding of Somali society and clannish divisions. Farmaajo was confident and patient even while his opponents called him an ostracized leader, both domestically and internationally. His political enemies, foremost, the current President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh and the former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed accused Farmaajo’s government of serious misdeeds: enabling rampant corruption within the Federal Government institutions and fostering a culture of clannism through militias coupled with dictatorial tendencies to extend nepotistic rule. Worst of all, the civilian Farmaajo was likened to the previous military clan dictatorship of Siad Barre. Farmaajo was denounced for playing the “divide and rule” clan stratagem through bribery, arrests, threats of confiscation of private property and murderous conspiracies.

Without any shame the two previous presidents, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Hassan Sheikh, who are themselves close relatives, falsely accused Farmaajo of clannish mimicry of Siad Barre’s dictatorship. The Anti-Farmaajo Coalition complained loudly to the American, European Union and UN diplomats in Nairobi— the real dispensers of political power in Somalia— that they were moderate clan leaders unlike Farmaajo, who was an aggressive outsider. Desperate to ignite conflict inside Mogadishu, the Hassan Sheikh-Sharif Sheikh Ahmed Anti-Farmaajo coalition bribed disaffected segments of Somali National Army (SNA) units, homeless youth and IDP camp dwellers to riot under the deceptive slogan of Badbaado Qaran.

 However, the narrative that was sold turned out to be utterly false; a hypocritical and self-serving lie without substance or merit. Today, it is clear that the accusations and smear campaign against President Farmaajo by Hassan Sheikh and Sharif Sheikh Ahmed was a total lie within a lie.

 Despite Farmaajo’s generous overtures to Hassan Sheikh and Sharif Sheikh Ahmed back in 2021 to amicably settle their disagreements, the two former presidents were ruthless and unyielding to a political compromise. The objective was that Mohamed Abdillahi Farmaajo had to be removed at all costs from Villa Somalia!

The achieve their aims, the Anti-Farmaajo Coalition led by Hassan Sheikh & Co even persuaded the “wild card Prime Minister” Mohamed Hussein Roble—who had the most to lose because he was benevolently appointed by President Farmaajo— to commit ultimate political suicide in aligning with their narrow clannish interests against the Farmaajo’s government.

In hindsight, it is now clear that Prime Minister Mohamed Roble and his clan constituency became the real political victims of the erstwhile Hassan Sheikh-Sharif Ahmed campaign against President Farmaajo in 2021.

 Hassan Sheikh’s Failed Leadership

Today, the real outcome of the anti-Farmaajo campaign is an entrenched political and economic marginalization under Hassan Sheikh & Co against Prime Minister Roble and his clan constituents. Roble acknowledges the reality of Hassan Sheikh’s government is dominated by narrow clannish monopolization of all government representation, whether in Banaadir or throughout the Somali Federal institutions-a clear violation of the 4.5 power sharing arrangement within clans. Hassan Sheikh’s political marginalization of Roble’s clan is coupled with the complete discretionary abuse and embezzlement of state budgetary support and foreign investments.

 In Mogadishu, Roble watches the forced imposition of a one-sided clan-based taxation without representation regime- one that unfairly targets certain districts like Hodan and Garasbaaley because they are deemed by Hassan Sheikh & Co to be more “prosperous” than Kaaraan and Yaaqshiid.

Therefore, for Prime Minister Mohamed Roble and his clan constituency there is no redeeming quality and credibility left for Hassan Sheikh & Co or Sharif Sheikh Ahmed in 2026.

Yesterday, Hassan Sheikh roared back into Villa Somalia, with jubilant triumphalism whipping clannish grievances in street protests across Mogadishu against the presumptuous clan dictator from Caabudwaaq. Once in power, Hassan Sheikh treacherously marginalized Roble. In the process, Hassan Sheikh turned out to be far more clannish, corrupt, nepotistic and unyielding than Farmaajo and even Siad Barre in every way possible to the extent that the whole revival of post-conflict Somalia and Mogadishu itself is at risk of total economic collapse!

The fundamental question then is not how Mohamed Abdillahi Farmaajo achieved the improbable victory against Hassan Sheikh and Sharif Sheikh Ahmed coalition to become the leading candidate for President of Somalia in 2026 but rather to acknowledge the bitter reality that former Prime Minister Roble has had to accept: there are no real allies or enemies in politics.

Prime Minister Roble now knows the bitter truth that Farmaajo had no real enemies and allies. This is why Mohamed Abdillahi Farmaajo will be re-elected for the second time as the President of the Federal Republic of Somalia in 2016.

Conclusion

During the last four years, Mohamed Farmaajo confidently and patiently waited in Doha, Qatar to capitalize on the latent and fundamental divisions among his political adversaries in Mogadishu. Therefore, it is not surprising that Mohamed Farmaajo has taken advantage of this opportune time, with less than 6 months left before the presidential election, to strategically strike Hassan Sheikh and all his political opponents.

To his credit, Farmaajo knew that Hassan Sheikh and Sheikh Sharif would soon turn on each other than him; that they would rather vote for Farmaajo than each other as happened during his successful victory over them in the presidential election of 2016.

More importantly, Farmaajo warned Mohamed Roble back in 2021: Hassan Sheikh and Sharif Ahmed and their political coalitions have nothing to offer you but lies. Farmaajo told Roble that his political adversaries would never vote for Roble or any candidate from “that side of Mogadishu”. Unfortunately, for Roble, he did not heed Farmaajo’s advice. However, Prime Minister Roble now knows that the key to Farmaajo’s re-election in 2026 was always the divisions among his main political rivals.

The writer can be reached at : wadijir@hotmail.com

Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com  

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