Migwi Nduku
Ethiopia has five years to deliver the stretching targets the country set for itself in its 10 Year Development Plan (2021-2030).
A global comparative analysis shows the country needs to socialize a national sense of urgency to accelerate rapid results initiatives to meet its 2030 milestones while catching up or surpassing performance by comparator benchmark countries.
The external comparison is on a select group of countries which have managed to join the upper middle income GNI per capita Atlas Method of between USD$4,516 – USD$14,005.
This includes; South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Mauritius, Brazil, Chile and Puerto Rico.
A review of the economic and political miracles of the Asian Tigers, Asian Tiger Cubs, Mauritius and Latin America economic transformation champions highlights their ‘’secret sauces’’.
The comparisons are on excellent quantitative indicators of economic growth and poverty reduction, fiscal policy and public finance, monetary policy and financial sector, development financing, agriculture, trade, tourism, urbanization transport , energy, innovation and technology ,demography and human resource , gender and social inclusion, justice and public services, peace and regional cooperation, environment and climate change.
The 4 Asian Tigers Economic and Political Miracles.
Singapore (Lee Kuan Yew from 3rd World to 1st World), South Korea (Miracle on Han River), Taiwan (Economic and Political Miracle) and Hong Kong between 1960s and 1990s grew and modernized rapidly. They accelerated investments in education, training and skilling to build a high productivity labourforce. They increased industrial manufacturing GDP above agriculture by levering Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics and Innovations (STEMI). They heavily built capital infrastructure and trade corridors. They prioritized export promotion to Western Europe and North America. They upheld the primacy of strong government institutions and business friendly government policies supporting exporters, low lending rates, liberalized open economies, low taxes, small welfare state, deregulation, efficient government bureaucracy, democratic politics, solid governance and stewardship.
Modernization and Development of the Five Asian Tiger Cubs.
Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Philippines replicated the miracles of Asian Tigers before them to ascend into upper middle income. Malaysia was led by Dr. Mahathir Mohamed, the ‘’Father of Modernization’’. Indonesia under General Suharto, the ”Father of Development” experienced massive transformation of education, infrastructure, local entrepreneurship, and industrialization and GDP growth. The Communist Party of Vietnam “Doi Moi “renovation reforms liberalized the economy, distributed land to farmers, invested in education and health, supported the private sector and attracted FDI.
The Rise of Mauritius and Latin America’s Puerto Rico, Chile and Brazil.
Mauritius miracle saw per capita income reach $1,260 in 1986 as the country transitioned into the low middle income class ($1,146- $4, 515). In 2004 the country joined the upper middle-income category ($4,516- $14, 005) as its GNI per capita Atlas method rose to $5,240. Per capita income has since jumped to $11,540 in 2023 as Mauritius targets to join the high-income countries category with over $14,006 per person. Key drivers of the Mauritian Miracle include macro-economic stability (inflation, interest rates, FX, trade and fiscal balances), low corruption, strong institutions, efficient civil service, political stability, multi-party parliamentary democracy, and financial sector development, favorable regulations, light manufacturing, ICT and open economy with EPZ export promotion driving exports to over 100 percent of GDP.
Puerto Rico’s Operation Bootstrap (1950-1970) economic miracle under President Samuel Quiñones (1903- 1976) was driven by overdependence on favorable US tax incentives for American foreign direct investment industrialization raising per capita incomes and shifting the economy to manufacturing of textiles, electronics and pharmaceuticals. Chile’s economic miracle (1973 – 1990) under General Augusto Pinochet (1915- 2006) saw rapid economic development with GDP growth averaging 7.2 percent over 1976-1981. This hinged on Chilean University of Chicago economist reforms including privatizing State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), banks and universities, trade liberalization, removal of tariffs protecting local industries, low taxes, deregulation, export promotion, independent central bank, stabilization of inflation, currency and foreign debt.
Brazilian Economic Miracle (1968-1973) averaging 11.16% percent GDP growth, average per capita income growth of 8.4%, infrastructure investments, FDI and import substitution industrialization. It was led by a military President Emílio Garrastazu Médici (1905- 1985) albeit with three-fold growth in foreign debt and high inflation at 15.54 percent in March 1974.
Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction Comparative Review.
Ethiopia’s average real GDP double digit 10 percent growth target in the 10 Year Development Plan 2021-2030 may not be achieved as IMF WEO projects Ethiopia’s 2023-2030 real GDP to average 7.49 percent which however lies above Philippines’s 5.9 percent.
Ethiopia will have joined the lower middle GNI per capita countries (USD$1,136 – USD$4,495) reaching real GDP per capita USD$ 1,952 in 2030 but continue being outperformed by Singapore’s USD$ 110,562.
The poverty target of 7 percent by 2030 is at risk of not being achieved given the SDG Index puts Ethiopia’s poverty headcount ratio at $3.65/day at a high of 34.4 percent as compared with South Korea’s 0.14 percent in 2025.
Ethiopia’s Gross Capital Formation (National Investment) target of 36.9 percent of GDP will not be achieved by 2030 with IMF WEO projecting 24.3 percent of GDP versus Indonesia’s 31.4 percent.
Ethiopia’s national savings share of GDP at 22.3 percent of GDP in 2030 will have an imbalance of -ve2 percent of GDP below national investment and lie below Taiwan’s 47.9 percent of GDP.
Export promotion strategy target of 12.9 percent share of exports to GDP risks being derailed with World Bank WDI reporting 5.55 percent which is dwarfed by Hong Kong’s 181.7 percent and Singapore’s 178.8 percent in 2024.
Imports substitution strategy target of 19.4 percent share of imports to GDP is on track at 11.76 percent in 2024 and down from 31.5 percent in 2011 and lies well below Hong Kong’s high of 177.7 percent.
Ethiopia’s current account deficit share of GDP at -ve2 percent will outperform Chile’s -ve3 percent but be thoroughly outclassed by Taiwan’s surplus of + 21.2 percent in 2030.
Economic Structural Transformation of Ethiopia will be slow as the agriculture value added target of 22 percent of GDP may not be achieved as the country stood at 34.87 percent of GDP in 2024 as opposed to Singapore’s 0.03 percent of GDP.
Fiscal Policy and Public Finance Comparative Review.
The general government revenue target of birr 3.9 trillion is forecasted by IMF to be met and stand at birr 4.8 trillion in 2030 buoyed by GDP growth.
Government revenue percent of GDP target of 18.2 percent of GDP may be missed as IMF projects 11.95 percent of GDP while Brazil shows the way at 39.3 percent of GDP in 2030.
Government expenditure target of birr 4.5 trillion by 2030 is expected to be met with IMF forecasting at birr 5.4 trillion.
Public budget percent of GDP target of 23.4 percent of GDP may be missed as IMF estimates 13.5 percent while Brazil leads with 43.9 percent of GDP in 2030.
Ethiopia’s public debt to GDP target ratio of 48.6 percent by 2030 is projected by the IMF to be met at a sustainably low of 29.54 percent of GDP as opposed to Singapore’s high of 177.9 percent of GDP.
Monetary Policy and Financial Sector Comparative Review.
Ethiopia Statistical Service (ESS) reported a decline of inflation 13.9 percent in June 2025 from 33.8 percent in June 2022. The IMF forecasts inflation (end of period consumer prices) of 8.9 percent in 2030 which lies within the single digit bound target but above Puerto Rico’s 1.53 percent.
The USD/Birr is 142.4 percent depreciated after rising 56.58 in January 2024 to 137.16 on 21 July 2025 after IMF bailout FX Reforms conditionality from July 2024 moved Ethiopia from a fixed to a market FX demand supply forces floating exchange rate.
Divergence of formal and parallel rates would persist as the country seeks to increase USD supply from exports, remittances, FDI, tourism and FCY concessional debt.
This will buffer NBE FX reserves which are projected by IMF AIV to rise from 0.5 months of imports cover in 2022/23 to 2.1 months of imports in 2025/26 and 3.4 months in 2028/39.
IMF AIV reports positive real interest rate returns after the end of monetary financing of LCY fiscal deficits.
Digital Financial System (DFS) continues to evolve with Ethio Telecom’s Telebirr mobile money transfer services reaching 51.5M subscribers in Half Year FY 2024/25 financial year.
Safaricom’s Ethiopia MPesa had 2.4 million active 90-day users, 5,300 active agents, and 33,900 active Lipa na M-PESA merchants in its FY2025.
Development Financing Comparative Review.
IMF AIV July 2025 reports low deposits percent of GDP at 19 percent and lending to the private sector percent of GDP at 11 percent which is very low compared to Hong Kong’s 230.9 percent.
Annual growth of credit to private sector and SOEs is forecasted by the IMF to rise 23.4 percent in 2022/23 to 33.8 percent in 2025/26 before declining to 19.9 percent in 2028/29.
Agriculture Comparative Review.
NBE Ethiopia Fiscal Year 2023/24 reported export of fresh-cut flowers worth USD$469.9M plus fresh vegetables and fruits worth USD$65.1M with both totaling USD$535 million worth of horticulture exports which means the 10-Year National Horticulture Strategy stands a chance of delivering the horticulture export receipts target of USD$950M by 2030.
The quantity of horticulture exports in 2023/24 stood at 280,260 tons (Flowers 95,420 tons, fruits and flowers 184, 840 tons ) which lies at a quarter of the 1, 050 tons target for 2030 meaning it may not be achieved.
Trade Comparative Review.
Word Bank WDI reports Ethiopia’s merchandise exports revenues at USD$4.5 million in 2024 which is way off track the USD$18.3bn target (USD$6.7bn from agriculture, USD$9bn from manufacturing, USD$2.1bn from mining, and USD$0.7bn from electricity and other commodities).
NBE reports electricity exports in Q4 2023/2024 as standing at USD$60.4 million which lags the 2030 target of USD$700m for electricity and other commodities.
Ethiopia targets to conclude the accession to WTO membership by the 14th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC14) in Yaoundé- Cameroon in March 2026.
Ethiopia ratified the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and had lined up over 6.300 products and services to begin trading on 1st July 2025.
Tourism Comparative Review.
UNWTO data shows Ethiopia managed to recover the post Covid19 pandemic number of international tourists of 811.600, 604 in 2019 after posting 896,700 of which a whopping 71.9 percent (644,900) hailed from Africa while lagging Indonesia’s 5.89 million.
World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) projects Ethiopia’s international tourist arrivals in 2033 to total 1,455,000, generating expenditure of ETB327.1bn (USD$6.3bn), an increase of 5.1% pa from ETB200bn in 2023.
This is way off the target of 7.3M international tourists by 2030 and so Ethiopia has to exponentially accelerate efforts in this Must Win Battle- MWB.
Urbanization Comparative Review.
Ethiopia targets to build 4.4m urban houses and 2.8m rural centers standardize houses through large scale initiatives like the Integrated Housing Development Programme (IHDP and USD$500m Chaka Housing Project.
The World Bank reports Ethiopia’s urbanization rate (urban population share of total population) in 2024 at 23.6 percent which is low compared with Hong Kong and Singapore at 100 percent.
Ethiopia’s population living in slums share of urban population is high at 64.3 percent in 2022 compared with Singapore’s zero percent.
SDG Index reports the ratio of Ethiopia’s population with convenient access to public transport in cities in 2020 at 31.7percent versus Singapore at 99 percent.
Ethiopia Statistical Service (ESS) 2023 report of urban youths aged 15-29 unemployment rate at 26.8 percent indicate the country has its work cut out to achieve the target of 9 percent by 2030 through creation of 15M jobs.
In comparison, the city states of Singapore and Hong Kong reported very low unemployment rates in 2025 at two percent and 3.5 percent respectively.
Transport Comparative Review.
SDG Index reported Ethiopia’s Logistics Performance Index-LPI- quality of trade and transport-related infrastructure (1=low to 5=high) at 2.18 in 2016 Vis a Vis Singapore’s 4.6.
This indicates that Ethiopia still has a lot of work to do to achieve the 2030 transport targets of building102, 000 km new roads to expand national road network to 246,000 km, expressways to 1,650km, Universal Rural Roads Access Program (URRAP) to 109,000 km, dry ports to 11, railway length to 4,199 km and 6 airports.
Ethiopia Airline in January 2025 reported serving 141 international passenger and cargo destinations including 66 African cities and 2023/24 air passengers at 17.1M which is commendable but still lags an ambitiously high target of 48.4m international flight passengers by 2030.
In comparison, Brazil’s air transport passengers carried in 2021 stood at 61,896,523.
Water Comparative Review.
World Bank WDI reported ratio of people using safely managed drinking water services in Ethiopia in 2022 at 13.24 percent while both Hong Kong and Singapore stood at 100 percent signaling more work is needed to achieve the 2030 targets of increasing rural dwellers with access to water within 1km from 54.88 percent and urban dwellers from 58.9 percent to 100 percent.
Urban population using safely managed sanitation services for Ethiopia in 2022 stood at 17.4 percent as compared to Singapore at 100 percent meaning the country has a lot of catch up growth to achieve the target of building integrated basic sewerage systems for 100 cities and ensuring all rural villages to have access to toilets by 2030.
Ethiopia’s ratio of agricultural irrigated land over total agricultural land was low in 2020 at 0.47 percent in contrast to Mauritius at 17.8 percent and Bangladesh’s global high of 78.9 percent in 2021 indicating the country need to do more to attain the 2030 target of increasing application of modern irrigation techniques from 2 percent to 20 percent but the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam –GERD’s is a game changer in attaining irrigation targets.
Energy Comparative Review
Access to electricity (share of total population) for Ethiopia in 2023 stood at 55.4 percent, rural percent of rural population 43.6 percent, and urban percent of urban population 94.7 percent in comparison to 100 percent by Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Chile, Puerto Rico and Mauritius.
Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam –GERD’s 6,450 MW hydropower project will contribute heavily to achieving the electricity targets on access to citizens from 5.8M to 24.3M, raising grid-based electricity coverage from 33 percent to 96 percent and off-grid from 11 percent to 4 percent, electricity exports from 2,803 GWH to 7,184 GWH and increasing power transmission lines from 18,400 km to 29,900 km. dc
Innovation and Technology Comparative Review
Ethiopia targets to increase access to mobile and internet from 37.2 percent and 18.6 percent respectively to 100 percent by 2030 more so given heightened competition to Ethio Telecom after licensing of Safaricom and another 3rd MNO.
In 2022, Ethiopia’s mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) stood at 57 percent versus Hong Kong’s 319.5 percent.
Individuals using the internet (share of population) in Ethiopia stood at 16.7 percent in 2021 compared with Malaysia at 97.7 percent in 2023.
WIPO Global Innovation Index (GII) 2024 ranked Ethiopia 130/133 with a score of 12.3 percent as opposed to Singapore which was ranked 4/133 and scored 61.2 percent.
Demography and Human Resource Comparative Review.
Ethiopia’s target of raising family planning services access from 41 percent to 54 percent has already been achieved with SDG Index reporting 62.9 percent demand for family planning satisfied by modern methods (share of females aged 15+) in 2024.
The target of limiting population growth rate to a maximum of two percent in 2030 declined to 2.58 percent in 2024 from 2.71 percent in 2020 as contrasted to Hong Kong’s contraction of –ve0.16 percent.
Cutting Maternal Mortality Rate- MMR per 100,000 live births to 140 in 2029/30 remains a challenge at 195 in 2023 and as benchmarked to South Korea’s 4.
Lowering under five years Infant Mortality Rate to 25 is lagging at 46.5 in 2023 Vis a Vis Singapore’s 2.1.
Ethiopia had low physicians at 0.11 per 1,000 people in contrast to Chile’s 3.17 in 2022 while hospital beds (per 1,000 people) was also low at 0.33 in 2016 versus South Korea’s global high of 12.75 in 2021.
Primary school completion rate total (share of relevant age group) of Ethiopia in 2023 stood at 55.9 percent as compared to Thailand’s 103 percent and the 2030’s target of 90 percent.
Gender and Social Inclusion Comparative Review.
Ethiopia outperformed all Asian Tigers, Tiger cubs, and LATAM economic and political miracle countries on proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments by outperforming all Asian Tigers, Tiger cubs, and LATAM economic and political miracle countries at 41.3 percent in 2024 but this however lagged its 2030 target of 50 percent.
By 2030, Ethiopia targets to grow the number of the vulnerable, persons with disabilities, elderly and street dwellers in safety net programs from 1.3M to 1.53M.
Coverage of social protection and labor programs in Ethiopia stood at 22.17 percent of population in 2018 as contrasted with Chile’s 85.6 percent in 2022.
Justice and Public Services Comparative Review
Ethiopia targets by 2030 to increase criminal case clearance and resolution of civil court cases enforcement to 100 percent.
SDG Index reports access to and affordability of justice (worst 0–1 best) score of Ethiopia at 0.434 in 2023 as compared to South Korea’s 0.709 while timeliness of administrative proceedings (worst 0 – 1 best) had Ethiopia scoring 0.364 in 2023 as juxtaposed to South Korea’s 0.814.
Satisfaction with public service delivery is expected to be increased to 90 percent by 2030 by raising its World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) Public Sector Management And Institutions Cluster Average (1=low to 6=high) from 3.1 in 2024 towards six.
Peace and Regional Cooperation Comparative Review
Ethiopia targets to grow its citizens’ positive perception on prevalence of peace and security from 25 percent to 80 percent and build trust between communities and security forces from 40 percent to 95 percent. Increase law enforcement capacity from 10 percent to 95 percent.
The Institute for Economics & Peace- IEP’s Global Peace Index (GPI)for 2025 ranks Ethiopia 138/163 countries with a score of 2.68 versus Singapore which was ranked 6th globally with a score of 1.35.
By 2030, Ethiopia aims to have created 6M overseas employment opportunities for them to create wealth worth USD$7bn, 100,000 jobs inside Ethiopia and grow the Diaspora Trust Fund contributors to 400,000.
World Bank KNOMAD put diaspora remittances inflow to Ethiopia at USD$592M (0.4 percent of GDP) in 2023 from an estimated 979,796 migrants as at 2021.
The Philippines as a benchmark had 6, 159,057 diaspora migrants in 2021 and received remittances in 2023 worth USD$40bn (9.2 percent of GDP).
Environment and Climate Change Comparative Review
Ethiopia targets to reduce Greenhouse Gas-GHGs emissions from 92.7M metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2E) to 162.3M metric tons.
Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF per capita (t CO2e/capita) by Ethiopia in 2023 stood at 1.2 while South Korea was higher at 12.6.
Wildlife protection coverage against illicit activities is targeted to rise from 62 percent to 92 percent by 2030.
Terrestrial protected areas (share of total land area) for Ethiopia stood at 17 percent in 2024 Vis a Vis Hong Kong’s 42 percent.
Ethiopia targets to increase national forest coverage from 15.5 percent to 30 percent by 2030 with the Green Legacy Initiative aiming to plant 50bn trees by 2026.
Forest area (proportion of land area) was at 14.99 percent in 2022 for Ethiopia while its South Korea benchmark grossed 64.2 percent. The country has to accelerate greening efforts to achieve its 2030 target.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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