My lifetime personal observations with historical references and chronology
Tesfaye Biftu,
Cherry Hill, NJ 08002 USA
Summary of the recurring cycles
In my lifetime, in the last 70 years, I have observed several recurring patterns in Ethiopia: a government begins a period of development and institution-building; dissatisfaction and political conflict accumulates; a new government takes power; earlier policies or institutions are dismantled or redirected; and a subsequent government again attempts to rebuild growth and stability; and this cycle has repeated for decades. Even before my time, Emperor Menelik and Haile Selassie, before the first and second world war, have experienced the same cycles. The earlier development cycles were sabotages by war with foreign countries, namely Italy (Adwa and Maichew), but the recent three cycles are all due to internally created conflicts, and resulted with major casualties as each cycle continues.
1. Before 1974: Modernization under Haile Selassie
In the years before the fall of Emperor Haile Selassie I in 1974, Ethiopia was pursuing an ambitious program of modernization. The imperial government introduced successive development plans and promoted manufacturing, transportation, agriculture, education, aviation and electrical power. The country’s first Five-Year Development Plan covered 1957–1961, and a Third Five-Year Development Plan covered 1968–1973. During this period, textile factories and other industrial enterprises were established, while hydropower projects expanded electricity generation. For example, the Koka Dam was completed in 1960, Tis Abay became operational in 1964, and Awash II followed in 1966. [1][2][3]
This period is one in which roads, highways, buildings, and other infrastructure in Addis Ababa and provinces were being developed rapidly, graduates of agricultural schools going into the countryside to establish or manage large farms. These fits the broader picture of an imperial government that was actively promoting agricultural and industrial development, although the pace and benefits of development were uneven. Historical economic data also show that Ethiopia experienced substantial growth during parts of the 1950s and 1960s, in par with Asian tigers Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, … while growth weakened in the early 1970s. [1][4]
2. 1974–1991: The Derg and the socialist period
In 1974, a military committee known as the Derg overthrew Haile Selassie. The Emperor was deposed in September 1974 and died in August 1975. The Derg subsequently established a Marxist-Leninist oriented state and, during 1975, nationalized major parts of the economy. Rural land was nationalized in March 1975; urban land, rentable houses, and apartments were nationalized in July 1975; and banks, insurance companies, and many major enterprises were brought under state control. [5][6]
This period lasted roughly seventeen years, from the 1974 revolution until the fall of the Derg in 1991. The original story describes the period as a major break in Ethiopia’s development and nationalization ultimately did not produce the industrialization and broad economic development that the country needed. The Derg operated a centrally planned economy and that the financial sector which is the engine of growth was overwhelmingly state-owned during the 1970s and 1980s. [5][7]. Towards the end,
the Derge realized the mistakes and began liberalizing certain aspects of private establishments. However, it was too late then.
3. 1991–2012: EPRDF rule and market-oriented reforms
In 1991, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), in which the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was the leading component, took power after the collapse of the Derg. Meles Zenawi became the dominant political leader of the new era, serving first as president of the transitional government and later as prime minister from 1995 until his death in 2012. [8]
The economic direction also changed. Beginning in 1991–1992, the new government introduced market-oriented reforms, including price and trade reforms, changes to the foreign-exchange system, privatization measures, and financial-sector reforms. A particularly important step came in 1994, when legislation permitted privately owned domestic commercial banks to enter the market; the first private bank began operations in 1994–1995. [7][9][10] These reforms did not create a fully free-market economy, but they represented a significant departure from the failed centrally planned system of the Derg.
The Meles era also saw major investments in infrastructure and development, alongside political tensions and controversies. Ethiopia experienced rapid economic growth over much of the 2000s and 2010s, and poverty declined nationally, although the World Bank has documented significant regional and urban-rural differences in the distribution of those gains. [11]
2012–2018: Transition, unrest, and political change
Meles Zenawi died in August 2012, and Hailemariam Desalegn became prime minister. During the following years, Ethiopia experienced substantial political unrest and dissatisfaction, including major protests beginning in 2015–2016 and continuing into 2018. Hailemariam resigned in February 2018, and Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in April 2018. [8][12]
4. 2018 Onward: The PM Abiy government
The beginning of Abiy Ahmed’s government brought significant changes and initially generated considerable optimism. In his first months in office, the government lifted the state of emergency, granted amnesty to thousands of political prisoners, eased media restrictions, and legalized previously outlawed opposition groups. [13] PM Abiy also moved rapidly to improve relations with Eritrea. In July and September 2018, Ethiopia and Eritrea signed agreements that ended the long “no war, no peace” stalemate that had followed the 1998–2000 Ethiopia–Eritrea war. For his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, Abiy received the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. [14]
At the same time, Ethiopia continued major development projects. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), whose construction began in 2011 by PM Meles and completed under PM Abiy’s leadership, became one of the country’s most important national infrastructure projects. The dam is located in the Benishangul-Gumuz region and is intended primarily to expand Ethiopia’s electricity generating capacity. [15] The period also brought continued urban construction and infrastructure expansion, including substantial changes in Addis Ababa and other Ethiopian cities. In addition, major industrialization including Solar Panel production, Textile, Cement and Natural gas production, Oil pipeline, enormous farm development projects, other Hydroelectric dams and over 35 major initiatives were promoted by the new government.
2020–2022: The Tigray War and widening divisions
However, like in the previous two cycles, the reform period was followed by severe political conflict. In November 2020, fighting broke out between the federal government and forces associated with the TPLF in the Tigray region. The conflict subsequently spread into neighboring Amhara and Afar regions and produced a major humanitarian and economic crisis. The World Bank describes the conflict as lasting from November 2020 to November 2022, when a peace agreement was reached. [16][17]
There is supporting evidence for the broader concern about uneven development: a 2020 World Bank regional poverty study found substantial differences in poverty reduction across regions and rising inequality in many regions between 2011 and 2016. [11] The war itself caused extensive displacement, destruction, disruption of livelihoods, and loss of welfare. [16][17]. A similar conflict has also been ongoing with Fano (Amhara), and OLF (Oromo) factions. The previous Meles government also left Ethiopia land locked, which by itself limits growth and initiated new regional conflict.
Recurring cycle continues
What the chronology does make clear is that Ethiopia has repeatedly combined ambitious modernization projects with major political transitions, conflicts, and changes in economic policy.
The larger question raised by this story is whether Ethiopia/Ethiopians can build institutions strong enough to preserve useful economic and developmental policies across changes in leadership, while ensuring that growth is broadly shared and political disagreements do not repeatedly become violent conflict.
The New conflict is much more complex in nature: the Iran and its allies war is affecting the gulf nations on the West side of the Red sea; on the East side Sudan is undergoing major conflict; Egypt has its grudge with Ethiopia over the Nile rive; Ethiopia, the top largest land locked country in the world wants a sea access for its 140 million inhabitants.
Will Ethiopians Unite to save the nation from this looming disaster, and build a strong institution that can for see and abort future cycles , or let the conflict continue till the nation breaks apart like the neighboring countries Sudan and Somalia?
Key Dates at a Glance :
1957–1961: First Five-Year Development Plan.
1960: Koka Dam completed; major expansion of hydropower capacity.
1964: Tis Abay hydropower plant completed.
1968–1973: Third Five-Year Development Plan.
1974: Derg overthrows Emperor Haile Selassie; revolutionary government begins.
1975: Rural land, urban land, rentable houses, apartments, banks, insurance companies, and major enterprises are nationalized in stages.
1991: Derg falls; EPRDF takes power and a transitional government is established.
1994: Legal framework permits private domestic commercial banks; market-oriented reforms deepen. 1995: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia established; Meles Zenawi becomes prime minister. 1998–2000: Ethiopia–Eritrea war.
2011: Construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam begins.
2012: Meles Zenawi dies; Hailemariam Desalegn becomes prime minister.
2015–2018: Major protests and political unrest.
April 2018: Abiy Ahmed becomes prime minister.
2018: Ethiopia and Eritrea restore peace and diplomatic relations.
2019: Abiy Ahmed receives the Nobel Peace Prize.
November 2020: Tigray War begins.
November 2022: Pretoria peace agreement brings the two-year Tigray conflict to a formal end.
Editor’s Note: Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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References
[1] U.S. Library of Congress, Ethiopia: A Country Study.. Useful for the Derg’s 1975 land, housing, and nationalization measures. https://tile.loc.gov/storage
services/master/frd/frdcstdy/et/ethiopiacountrys00ofca_0/ethiopia-countrys00ofca_0.pdf
[2] Oxford Academic, “Modernization, State-Building, and the Hydraulic Mission in Imperial and Revolutionary Ethiopia.”. Provides evidence on hydropower projects including Koka, Tis Abay, and Awash II. https://academic.oup.com/book/58950/chapter/493013774
[3] Ethiopian Government, Third Five-Year Development Plan, 1968–1973.. Contemporary government development-plan source for the late imperial period.
https://books.google.com/books/about/Third_Five_Year_Development_Plan_1961_19.html?id=XN OjXkD_FgG
[4] IMF, Ethiopia: Recent Economic Developments (1994).. Documents the post-1991 move toward a market-based economy and the 1994 banking legislation.
https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/002/1994/015/article-A001-en.xml
[5] IMF, Ethiopia: Recent Economic Developments (1999).. Documents private banking, privatization, and market reforms during the 1990s.
https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/002/1999/098/article-A001-en.xml
[6] U.S. Department of State, Background Notes: Ethiopia.. Provides chronology for the fall of the Derg, the EPRDF, and the early 1990s transition. https://1997-
2001.state.gov/background_notes/ethiopia_0398_bgn.html
[7] Nobel Prize, Abiy Ahmed Ali — Facts and 2019 Nobel Peace Prize materials.. Documents Abiy’s accession in April 2018, reforms, and Ethiopia–Eritrea peace initiative.
https://www.nobelprize.org/laureate/981
[8] Nobel Prize, The Nobel Peace Prize 2019 — Press Release.. Details the 2018 Ethiopia–Eritrea peace process and early reforms. https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2019/press-release/
[9] World Bank, Ethiopia Achieved Positive Poverty Reduction but Inequalities Persist (2020).. Evidence on poverty reduction, regional differences, and inequality.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/11/18/ethiopia-achieved-positive poverty-reduction-but-inequalities-persist
[10] World Bank, Ethiopia Damage and Needs Assessment — Volume A.. Documents the scale and geographic spread of the 2020–2022 conflict.
https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents
reports/documentdetail/099062223114085580
[11] World Bank, Conflict and Household Welfare in Ethiopia.. Provides evidence on conflict, displacement, and household welfare.
https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099122324120026973/pdf/P17948414314e60791b ddc1916bc4acd5d8.pdf
[12] Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam official site.. Official project information stating that construction began in 2011 and describing the dam’s purpose and specifications. https://www.gerd.gov.et/about-the-dam