Unmasking Ethiopia’s Hidden Puppeteers: The Danger of Simplified Blame

By Mohamud A. Ahmed – Cagaweyne
Greenlight Advisors Group, Somali Region of Ethiopia 

Over the weekend, I immersed myself in various articles addressing Ethiopia’s current political turmoil. While some offered insightful analyses and thoughtful reflections, others, although persuasive in their rhetoric, revealed an unsettling intellectual dishonesty intended to propagate a particular political agenda. Agreeing to disagree remains a cornerstone of robust political discourse; thus, compelled by recent global virtual protests specifically targeting Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed, I find it necessary to articulate a counter-perspective that highlights the underlying complexities ignored by simplified narratives.

Criticism of Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed, especially regarding the apparent paradox of his Nobel Peace Prize juxtaposed with subsequent armed conflicts, indeed merits genuine and rigorous scrutiny. However, to singularly attribute Ethiopia’s intricate political crisis to him, while ignoring entrenched structural and historical influences, is as misguided as attempting to solve complex algebra by deliberately omitting crucial variables. Such oversimplifications dangerously distort accountability, undermining intellectual integrity and impeding meaningful solutions.

Indeed, Dr. Abiy’s administration witnessed a distressing escalation of conflicts, notably the catastrophic war in Tigray, which marks one of the darkest chapters in Ethiopia’s recent history. Yet, branding Abiy alone responsible overlooks entrenched dysfunctions embedded deeply in decades of ethnically charged governance, internal factionalism, and authoritarian legacies inherited from previous regimes. Ethiopia’s present challenges are not born solely of recent policies but rather stem from chronic systemic illnesses ignored and perpetuated by preceding leaderships.

As Ethiopia continues to reel from profound trauma inflicted by these conflicts, we must pose critical questions: who profits politically from distilling a multifaceted crisis into the culpability of a single individual? The convenient scapegoating of a sitting leader dangerously diverts attention from the structural realities and enduring historical grievances that birthed and continue to sustain Ethiopia’s violence. Ethnic-based mobilizations, armed insurgencies, and longstanding communal tensions significantly predate Dr. Abiy’s tenure and persist independently of individual personalities.

Moreover, the romanticized narrative of opposition forces often masks unsettling realities. Individuals and factions previously implicated in egregious human rights abuses suddenly find redemption merely by positioning themselves against Dr. Abiy Ahmed. This uncritical heroization risks perpetuating cycles of violence, as yesterday’s oppressors conveniently cloak themselves in today’s liberation rhetoric. History reminds us sharply: “Changing faces without altering foundations merely ensures the repetition of yesterday’s tragedies.” Ethiopia’s yearning for authentic change demands far more than cosmetic political reshuffling – it necessitates a radical transformation in the very ethos of Ethiopian politics.

The proposed solutions from diaspora dissidents, often far removed from domestic realities, frequently oversimplify complex socio-political dynamics. Detached from the grassroots context, these externally devised solutions often exacerbate tensions rather than mitigate them. Real and lasting change must emerge organically within Ethiopia, driven by sincere reconciliation, robust interethnic dialogue, and inclusive governance strategies, rather than imposed ideals disconnected from ground-level realities.

Thus, peace remains elusive not merely because of individual leadership failings but primarily due to collective reluctance to dismantle entrenched ethnic politicking and violent power dynamics. Nelson Mandela’s wisdom underscores this reality vividly: “Resentment is like drinking poison and hoping it will kill your enemies.” Without transcending entrenched resentments and cycles of blame, Ethiopia’s tragic cycle of violence will inevitably persist.

I acknowledge a certain bias in advocating space and time for the current administration to stabilize and recalibrate. Nonetheless, meaningful political resolutions remain unreachable when armed factions persist in pursuing power under the misleading guise of national liberation. Resorting to violence deepens divisions and threatens national cohesion. The dangerous reliance on external actors and constant lobbying of Western powers to punish current leaders in the misguided hope of gaining power through external pressure is not only a political fallacy but an existential threat to Ethiopia’s sovereignty. The stark reality demands a commitment to nonviolent dialogue or facing the grim consequence of national collapse.

The mathematics of peace demands meticulously balanced equations; genuine dialogue, multiplied by sincere engagement, equals sustainable stability, whereas violence, compounded by bitterness, yields endless turmoil. Albert Einstein cautioned, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” Ethiopia urgently needs innovative thinking and transformative dialogue, rather than repeating destructive cycles of blame and violence.

This discussion does not absolve Prime Minister Dr. Abiy of responsibility. His actions and decisions undoubtedly require rigorous examination and accountability. Yet, meaningful accountability extends beyond a single office – it requires profound introspection from all political actors, opposition groups, and civil society. Addressing the endemic disease of ethnic-based politics and systemic violence is fundamental to ensuring Ethiopia’s long-term stability.

Before hastening to replace current leaders without addressing structural foundations, Ethiopians must deeply reflect: Who among us is immune to the corrupting influence of power, ethnic bias, and historical grievances? History harshly teaches that without structural transformation, today’s hopeful reformers inevitably become tomorrow’s disillusioned oppressors. Genuine progress requires more than mere leadership changes – it demands a profound restructuring of Ethiopia’s political heart and societal ethos.

Certainly, Ethiopia has navigated stormy seas during Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s tenure, as often highlighted by his opponents in exile and armed resistance groups. Yet, deliberately overlooking the beacons of progress his administration has illuminated – economic  growth blooming like fertile fields after drought, infrastructural developments bridging divides like sturdy bridges across turbulent waters, agricultural initiatives breathing renewed vitality into the soil, and diplomatic achievements gracefully weaving Ethiopia into the global fabric – risks plunging the nation deeper into the tempest. Constructive and balanced critique, embracing both shadows and light, is vital to charting a resilient path toward genuine national dialogue and enduring reconciliation. Politics driven solely by animosity or the relentless pursuit to unseat a leader without acknowledging his accomplishments anchors Ethiopia in stagnation, hindering its journey toward the shores of prosperity and democratic stability, a destination reached by nations that have fostered environments of peace, thoughtful critique, and democratic engagement.

Indeed, political errors are magnified in a nation as diverse as Ethiopia, with its 120 million people across 80 distinct ethnic groups. The diversity becomes a powder keg when animosity supersedes unity. External observers who thrive on exploiting Ethiopia’s vulnerabilities find comfort in our internal conflicts, strategically ensuring continued dominance as long as divisions persist. Internal unity and profound structural reform remain urgent imperatives to resist such external manipulation.

Furthermore, temporary alliances with former adversaries under the logic of “the enemy of your enemy is your friend” carry profound moral dangers. Aligning with figures historically tainted by atrocities deepens wounds rather than healing them. Regions like Somali, which enjoyed relative peace after enduring prolonged violence, view current coalitions with historical oppressors skeptically, seeing them as betrayals of delayed but inevitable justice. Prudence must prevail before engaging with morally compromised entities, ensuring ethical consistency in the pursuit of genuine national transformation.

Ultimately, Ethiopians face a crucial decision: does lasting peace depend merely on altering leadership or on fundamentally restructuring the nation’s political foundations? The genuine solution undoubtedly lies in the courage to dismantle entrenched systemic challenges and create a foundation for a stable, united Ethiopia built upon inclusive governance and enduring peace.

The writer is a columnist, political Analyst and researcher. He can be reached at :  +251900644648

Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com      

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