In recent years, Ethiopia has undergone one of the most turbulent political periods in its modern history. What initially emerged as a wave of optimism following the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in 2018 has gradually evolved into an era characterized by war, insurgency, political fragmentation, and regional tension. Although multiple peace agreements have formally concluded some of the country’s deadliest conflicts, Ethiopia today remains profoundly unstable. The reality has become increasingly evident: the cessation of war does not necessarily constitute the establishment of peace.
When Abiy Ahmed assumed office, many Ethiopians regarded him as a reform-minded leader capable of addressing decades of political division. His administration released political prisoners, welcomed exiled opposition groups back into the country, and reached a historic peace agreement with Eritrea. These developments earned him widespread international recognition, including the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. Nevertheless, beneath the prevailing optimism, fundamental questions concerning Ethiopia’s political structure remained unresolved.
At the core of Ethiopia’s instability is a long-standing debate regarding the country’s system of governance. Since the early 1990s, Ethiopia has operated under an ethno-federal framework that grants regional states autonomy largely based on ethnic identity. Proponents contend that the system safeguards Ethiopia’s diverse communities and ensures representation for historically marginalized groups. Critics, however, argue that it has institutionalized ethnic divisions, weakened national cohesion, and intensified competition over territory and political authority.
Abiy Ahmed sought to guide Ethiopia toward a more centralized political framework under the Prosperity Party. However, the transition lacked sufficient national consensus and strategic clarity. For many groups, particularly those strongly committed to federal autonomy, centralization appeared less as reform and more as a threat to self-governance. Political mistrust deepened, and armed resistance intensified in several regions.
The most devastating consequence was the war in Tigray between 2020 and 2022. The conflict inflicted immense human suffering, destroyed critical infrastructure, displaced millions, and severely damaged Ethiopia’s international standing. Although the Pretoria Agreement formally ended large-scale hostilities, many underlying grievances remain unresolved. Questions concerning accountability, transitional justice, reconstruction, and political representation continue to generate tension within Tigray. Divisions among Tigrayan political actors and growing distrust between regional and federal authorities further complicate the situation.
Simultaneously, conflict has spread to other regions. In the Amhara region, tensions escalated following the Pretoria Agreement, partly because many Amhara groups believed their concerns had been excluded from negotiations. The rise of Fano militias reflects not only opposition to federal security policies but also increasing resentment toward Addis Ababa. The conflict has displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians and intensified political polarization throughout the country.
Similarly, Oromia continues to experience instability despite repeated attempts at dialogue between the federal government and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). The persistence of violence in Oromia demonstrates the limitations of militarized approaches in resolving deeply rooted political disputes. In many parts of Ethiopia, communities increasingly find themselves caught between insurgent movements and state security operations, while ordinary citizens bear the humanitarian and economic consequences.
Ethiopia’s internal instability is further compounded by growing regional tensions. Relations with Eritrea have once again deteriorated following disputes over sea access and security concerns in northern Ethiopia. Meanwhile, disagreements with Egypt regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) remain a significant geopolitical challenge. These external pressures create additional risks, particularly if regional rivalries begin to fuel proxy conflicts within Ethiopia.
Despite these challenges, Ethiopia’s future is not predetermined. The country continues to possess significant opportunities for recovery and national reconciliation. Ethiopia has a youthful population, considerable strategic importance within the region, strong cultural resilience, and substantial economic potential. However, achieving lasting peace requires more than military victories or symbolic agreements.
First, the government must restore public trust through meaningful political inclusion. Peace agreements cannot succeed if major stakeholders feel excluded from negotiations or political participation. Durable stability requires dialogue that includes regional actors, opposition groups, civic organizations, and affected communities.
Second, accountability and transitional justice are indispensable. Many Ethiopians across different regions have experienced violence, displacement, and trauma. Without credible efforts to address these grievances, resentment and mistrust will continue to perpetuate cycles of conflict.
Third, Ethiopia requires a comprehensive national dialogue concerning the future of its governance system. The debate between centralization and ethnic federalism cannot be resolved through force alone. Sustainable political stability depends upon establishing a constitutional and political arrangement that balances national unity with regional autonomy.
Finally, regional diplomacy must remain a central priority. Ethiopia cannot afford simultaneous internal fragmentation and external confrontation. Constructive engagement with neighboring countries, particularly Eritrea and Egypt, is essential for long-term security and economic development.
The lesson from Ethiopia’s recent experience is unequivocal: peace is not merely the absence of war. Genuine peace requires institutions that command public trust, political systems capable of accommodating diversity, and leadership willing to prioritize national reconciliation over short-term political advantage.
Ethiopia today stands at a critical crossroads. One path leads toward deeper fragmentation, recurring violence, and prolonged instability. The other leads toward difficult yet necessary political compromise. The decisions made by Ethiopia’s leaders and by its broader political actors will shape not only the future of the country but also the stability of the Horn of Africa for years to come.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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