By Dr Ayele Meshesha
All Ethiopians know that the UK, EU, USA, and other Western countries support Abiy Ahmed Ali and his regime for some reason. Even when they appear not to be supporting him, for example, by not sending election observers for the recent election dramatically, they still do. They know it was a complete election farce and wanted to protect their own image, yet behind the scenes they give him the green light without saying so openly. One of the main reasons may be that they want stability in the Horn of Africa. They do not want to face the consequences of a failed state at this moment, especially while the entire Middle East is trembling because of the conflict with Iran. It also seems that Abiy Ahmed Ali and his allies know this and try to intimidate the Western world by implying that if they fail to govern the country, it will become ungovernable forever and the region will descend into crisis.
Among several pieces of evidence, we can mention the former general, now ambassador, Bacha Debele. He deliberately gave an interview undermining the rebel forces within the country, outlining the consequences if they fail to lead the nation, and claiming that the best option for the country is the existing Abiy Ahmed Ali-led regime. Otherwise, the general threatened that they would deliberately destabilize Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, the entire Horn of Africa, all the way to the Bab el-Mandeb. This is a laughable claim. This is like inflating the potential of the cards in your hands. The West so far has got it wrong. Where did they lose it? Did they do so willfully and by design? This needs deeper investigation. Time will tell and history will record it. However, let us mention a few core ideas where these Western countries went astray, assuming that they only want Ethiopian stability and not its destruction.
- The West assumes that Abiy Ahmed Ali comes from the largest ethnic group and that it is therefore fair for the country to be led by elites from this group. The elite faction that mainly came from the former OPDO party (renamed the Prosperity Party) consolidated power over the other parties from the Oromia region either by force or through negotiation. What the West failed to understand is that the wing of the party that seized leadership consists of the incompetent and ruthless elements. Figures such as Dr. Lemma Megersa, who were more centrist, principled, and charismatic, were forced out by those unfit to lead a country of such complexity. You cannot transform a pig simply by awarding him a Nobel Peace Prize and other flashy honors. He may say yes to the IMF, the World Bank, and other demands of yours. But in the end, he is not delivering stability or growth for the country. We are assuming that we are on the same side that you’re looking for stability for the country. If not, if you have designed this precisely to destroy this nation and the region, then congratulations: you have brought the right gangs to power and supported them until they burn the country down.
- The West continuously believes that the current problems are mainly created by other groups and therefore gives the benefit of the doubt to the Prosperity Party gang to lead the country. In reality, the main destabilizing force in Ethiopia and in the Horn of Africa is this group and its gangs. To mention a few examples:
a) They first destabilized Wollega. The first command post was established in Wollega. Why? Because there were many highly educated and leading Oromo thinkers such as Lemma Megersa, Bekele Gerba, and others who could have been more reasonable partners in leading the country together with other Ethiopians. So they terrorized the people there.
b) Then they created conflict with Tigray. Yes, because of the problems accumulated during the 27 years of previous leadership, many Ethiopians initially supported him in fighting the Tigray forces. He deceived the people by claiming that the Northerners had crossed the line by attacking the Northern Command. Now Ethiopians know better and no longer support Abiy and his gangs in taking even an inch of further action against the Tigray forces.
c) This incompetent and low-level thinking group then turned to fighting the farmers in the Amhara region. This was the gravest mistake these gangs have ever made. We know that they try to undermine the Fano forces in the region. We also know that Western media deliberately gives low coverage to whatever crimes the gangs are committing there. Furthermore, they downplay the real strength of the Fano in the Amhara region and the rebels in the Oromia region.
d) In addition, Abiy Ahmed Ali and his UAE-backed gang are active in Sudan supporting the RSF. They want to start a new conflict with Eritrea, and they want to send forces into Tigray again. Even the so-called ambassadors have come out and signaled that they will create further chaos in the region.
Abiy and his gangs are not the right people to lead a country of 130 million people in the Horn of Africa. If the West looks clearly, the only truly chaotic force for the countries of the Horn is Abiy and his gangs. Not just him alone, together with all his incapable associates, they are the root cause of the problem. They all must go.
- The west is afraid that if the current government fails, the country will descend into chaos. Because this government controls the banks, the tanks, and some of the strongest and most vital institutions such as Ethiopian Airlines and the telecommunications sector, as well as the city of Addis Ababa (which has been made to look stunning with money from the gangs and from Arab sources), Western powers prefer to stay behind the existing leadership. They choose to allow the gangs to navigate through the problems until they somehow emerge from them. They are simply afraid of the alternative.
Now, however, all the forces opposed to Abiy Ahmed Ali and his gangs are coming together for their own survival, and Abiy’s days are numbered. The TDF/TPLF forces from Tigray, the Fano forces from the Amhara region, the OLA forces in Oromia, and the forces from Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz, and Gambella have united to overthrow Abiy and his allies. They have the support of the majority of the people across the country. The only areas still controlled by Abiy are Addis Ababa (for various reasons) and parts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region, where the smaller ethnic groups fear being swallowed by the larger populations around them. Even these groups are longing for a redeemer to liberate them from the gangs.
This unity has gained real momentum. It appears that these forces now have genuine representation from each region and have understood that they must come together and solve the problems collectively. Of course, Abiy and his gangs are trying to present themselves as the true representatives of the Oromia region. But their claim is false, just as the Amhara Prosperity Party’s political DNA is fake in the Amhara region.
Way forward
It is time to let the Prosperity Party gangs leave the leadership. They are corrupt. They are genociders. They are incompetent. The country needs better forces who understand the complexity of Ethiopia’s political dynamics. There is a rumor that Abiy and his gangs are trying to base their forces in Jimma. Just as the RSF is basing itself in southwestern Sudan with UAE support, Abiy might attempt something similar. Can this work? The situation in Ethiopia is completely different. It cannot work at all. Ethiopia is not Sudan.
The era in which the elite of only one ethnic group dominates the political scene is over in this country. There must be a system that gives true representation to each group of people according to fair laws and principles. Stop supporting only one ethnic elite. Ethiopians should come together willingly for dialogue and reconciliation, not through the fake commission led by the doctoral advisor of Abiy Ahmed Ali himself. The same man who allowed him to obtain a fake PhD will grant him anything else he wants.
So save the country and the people. Sit down with the forces that have already come together and allow a genuine change of leadership to take place. The gangs may try to inflate their ability to do harm. They may claim they can crumble Addis Ababa and make it ungovernable, or that they will terrorize the whole of East Africa. This is all nonsense. Instead, allow the united forces to come together. You will see the country return to order and peace in a very short time—within weeks, months, or even a year. Otherwise, with these gangs remaining in control of the banks, the military, the key institutions, and the capital, they will continue to massacre people in Oromia, Amhara, Tigray, and other regions. They have already shed the blood of millions. Stop them from going any further. It is time. Ethiopians need your help right now!
Editor’s Note: Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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