By Addissu Admas
The saber rattling is going unabated between the TPLF, headed by Debretsion Gebremichael, and the Federal Government of Abiy Ahmed. Both are unwilling to concede even a little from their declared positions. The former wants no less than its full restoration as an (armed?) party, the latter insisting that TPLF become de jure a new party, with a regional election duly monitored, one hopes, by an independent third party. It is appropriate that we begin considering first both sides’ main demands and reasons before identifying the real issue at hand.
PM Abiy has stated that the TPLF’s (i.e., the one headed by Debretsion) refusal to re-register as a virtually new party may lead to new conflicts. The question is why can’t the TPLF satisfy this simple request by NEBE (National Election Board of Ethiopia), or, on the other hand, why can’t the federal government of Ethiopia allow the TPLF’s continue to exist without re-registering anew? Is this fight really on this seemingly simple issue? Must this apparently banal issue lead to another war that could possibly end Ethiopia’s existence as a nation state? The accusation that both parties are hurling at each other appear evenly grounded to a casual observer; and even rather commonplace. But a deeper inquiry may show unrevealed and unresolved underlying issues.
Why is NEBE insisting that the TPLF re-register as a new party, and why is the TPLF refusing to do so? Why does the TPLF want to be re-instated no question asked? The stated official reasons provided by both parties are ostensibly reasonable and yet leave one wondering if the reasons they provide are the only ones.
NEBE contends that the TPLF lost its party status when it started the 2020-2022 war and, a few months after, was declared a “terrorist organization” by the House of Peoples Representatives on May 6, 2021. Before it even applies for re-registration as a “new party”, the TPLF must in effect hold a general assembly to elect a new leadership. The Federal government maintains also that, as far as NEBE is concerned, “there is no legal mechanism for reinstating a previously banned party without a formal process”. Thus, the TPLF must re-register under a revised ‘parties’ proclamation’ because, quite simply, there is no legal mechanism for reinstating a party. NEBE appears to imply that these rules were not written solely with the TPLF in mind but are general rules for any party previously banned as a terrorist organization.
The TPLF refuses to re-register as a new party and demands that it be legally and fully reinstated to its historic status. This, it contends, is in line with the Pretoria Agreement. It argues that its reinstatement should have taken place automatically as soon as its designation of “terrorist organization” was lifted (Nov. 2022; see article 7.2.c of the Pretoria Agreement). Not reinstating the TPLF as it does go, according to it, “against the Pretoria Peace Accord”, if not exactly literally, at least in spirit. It is NEBE’s fault, it claims, that it failed to make allowance for reinstatement, insisting only on a new registration. In essence, the TPLF is implying also that its previous status as a political party has been completely ignored or dismissed.
The question then boils down to why can’t the federal government just let the TPLF be reinstated, retain its leadership and do business as usual? Is this in any way harmful or dangerous for the federal government, and for Ethiopia as a whole?
I was never sure of TPLF’s designation as a terrorist organization. Meaning, it wasn’t clear if it could stand up to strict legal scrutiny. This is in no way to diminish TPLF’s unforgivable deeds, but to simply shift the perspective on the matter. After all, this is a party that had already ruled Ethiopia for over 27 years, unchallenged, and with an iron fist. It did in fact start the war of 2020-2022 by murdering an unknown number of soldiers of the Northern Command. As far as conventional usage of the term is concerned, a terrorist organization targets primarily civilian living spaces to create panic and disorder. The TPLF’s intent was to recapture federal power with the clear backing of the United States. Moreover, it conducted a conventional war that it ultimately lost. In reality, it led a conventional war where an untold number of civilians were maimed, killed and the extent of the material damage is still unknown. True, tens of thousands of unarmed civilians have died by the mismanagement of the war. However, both sides have been blamed for it. In this scenario, it is not clear where the appellation of terrorist organization applies.
My point is, rather than insisting that the TPLF lost its status as a legitimate party because of its designation as a terrorist organization and therefore the need for it to re-register as a party, I would insist on its holding an election to be monitored by international observers. That, in itself, should determine the fate of the party rather than insisting on laws that have no precedent, or none that we are aware of.
If the TPLF wants to ignore or thwart by some means an open and fair election to determine the future leadership of Tigray, then the government of PM Abiy Ahmed needs to re-involve the same leaders who concluded the Pretoria and Nairobi accords to render again their services for such end.
To conclude, the real issue is not really whether the TPLF should be reinstated as a party or not, or whether it must re-register as a new party anew or not. Believing this to be the whole issue and trying to find a compromise over it misses the true point of the matter. What the TPLF, and specifically Debretsion’s party is demanding in effect is to be reinstated as the sole hegemonic party of Tigray by subordinating the principal issue, which is the calling for a general free and fair election involving the entire people of Tigray.
For fifty years, the TPLF has de facto considered itself to be the sole voice for the Tigrean people by virtually making it impossible for any other voices to arise within the territory it dominated by force. This is in truth what it is aiming and demanding to continue. And this is why the most important question of calling for a region-wide election has been relegated to a secondary issue.
The government of PM Abiy Ahmed, and specifically NEBE, must not waste time and energy trying to outmaneuver the TPLF through legal wrangling to find legitimacy for whatever action it wants to take. Nor should it engage in saber rattling expecting that the other one will blink. What the Federal Government needs to insist on is to establish the conditions for the peoples of Tigray to have a free and fair election to elect the party and the leaders they desire and deserve. If and when this takes place, the issue of reinstatement or re-registering a new of the TPLF will not only become secondary, but likely irrelevant.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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