By Dr. Taye Minale
Olusẹgun Ọbasanjo showed up in Mekelle without an appointment, looking forward to meeting the Tigray forces last weekend. Critics of Ọbasanjo are coming out, accusing him of acting as a spy for Abiy Ahmed Ali and his associates. They claim that the sudden trip to Mekelle without a pre-planned appointment with Tigray leaders shows that Abiy is using the old man. First let us remind ourselves of the role of Olusegun Obasanjo in the process.
What is the role of Olusegun Obasanjo in this conflict?
The former president of Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo’s role in the Ethiopian conflict was primarily as a mediator and peace envoy, not as a military or political actor in the war itself. Obasanjo was appointed AU High Representative for the Horn of Africa by African Union Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat in August 2021, with the Ethiopian/Tigray conflict becoming his principal focus. As a result, he conducted shuttle diplomacy, travelling between Addis Ababa and Mekelle; he sought to establish a negotiated settlement that would produce a cessation of hostilities and political dialogue, and ultimately helped negotiate the November 2022 agreement. The result was at least good since it silenced the gun temporarily!
However, taking credit for the Pretoria Agreement is an inflated claim for several reasons. In fact, it reflects the failure of the Nigerian and other mediators to create a meaningful agreement. To mention some:
(i) The Pretoria Agreement was created by the parties involved in the conflict. Both sides understood the problem and wanted to end it. The agreement could therefore have been facilitated by anyone.
(ii) The implementation of the agreement was hijacked and controlled by a few individuals, including Abiy Ahmed Ali, Getachew Reda, Redwan, and the generals Tadesse, Tsadikan, and Birhanu. As a result, it was not implemented carefully. It was followed only by meetings in Nairobi, Halala Kela and Friendship Park in Addis Ababa. That is all. It was effectively hijacked from the start.
(iii) The setup was not inclusive of other conflicting parties, and as a result the Pretoria Agreement was not sustainable. There is now no Pretoria Agreement. TPLF is out of it since the agreement was totally abused by Abiy Ahmed Ali and his gangs.
Given this, Obasanjo’s role was a failed one. In fact, Abiy is using him for his image. It is reported that the Nigerian ex-president has received gifts such as houses in Addis Ababa and is doing business with Abiy Ahmed. This means they are closely aligned. He is conflicted, and his perceived closeness to Abiy Ahmed and individuals in the Ethiopian federal government makes him an unsuitable person to bring peace and reconciliation to the country. That is why Tigray forces consider him biased.
How is Obasanjo helping Abiy?
Given that Abiy Ahmed Ali and the Tigray forces are now at war, with the federal government attacking Tigray several times a day using drones, any involvement in this situation should be undertaken with greater care and responsibility. According to Dr. Milkesa, a former minister in Abiy’s cabinet, in an analysis on his show referring to his inside information, Obasanjo came to Addis Ababa to attend the final ceremony of the failed national dialogue. However, Abiy Ahmed Ali and he had another hidden plan: to travel to Mekelle unexpectedly, without an appointment or announcement. They did this deliberately. Here are some of the reasons why the former minister and other analysts are suggesting.
- As an agent to create confusion among the coalition forces. Abiy Ahmed wants the news that his government and the Tigray forces are negotiating. This helps him send the message that the other coalition forces, including Fano, OLA and others, will start to doubt each other. The pretext of creating the illusion that TPLF members are trying to play both sides is exactly what Abiy wants at this point. Obasanjo, knowingly or unknowingly, is serving Abiy Ahmed precisely in this way. The coalition forces, composed of more than nine groups, are coordinating an attack against Abiy Ahmed Ali and his allies. When this happens, Abiy and his allies know that their days are numbered. Within a week or two, everything in Addis Ababa, the government’s only stronghold, will crumble. Abiy is afraid and he is trying to delay that.
- Leading a team of spies. Obasanjo travelled there with other people who are equipped with modern gadgets that can gather information on the ground. They are spies. Therefore, Obasanjo, knowingly or unknowingly, is serving as part of the spy squad sent to Mekelle.
- Contact point to track the TPLF leaders. Obasanjo meeting the Tigray leaders means Abiy gets the chance to track the whereabouts of the leaders. As Abiy’s only strength is drone attacks, he will try to obtain their coordinates and target them. There was a drone attack immediately after Obasanjo left. Did it hit any leader? No one knows. But Obasanjo is already playing the game with Abiy.
- Obasanjo provides diplomatic cover for Abiy Ahmed Ali. The rest of the world, the EU, USA, UK and other Westerners, thinks that Obasanjo represents the AU peace negotiation process in this case. Hence they observe that Abiy Ahmed Ali is trying his best to stick to the international peace initiative framework. In fact, most of them have issued a joint local statement in support of AU-led mediation efforts. This in itself is not bad. But unless you are deliberately and willfully playing along with the hidden schemes of the bad players, or unless you are a low-IQ person who does not understand what is going on, or even a person who denies the real circumstances on the ground, that Abiy Ahmed Ali has lost control of governing the country and his government is on the verge of crumbling, you will not go out and buy the shit Abiy is trying to show.
It seems the Tigray forces have understood these trivial tactics of the childish leader Abiy Ahmed Ali, who is reportedly staying day and night in the situation room of the drone command centre. As Dr Milkesa said, Abiy is back to his original profession of radio operator, looking for the leaders of the TPLF, Fano and OLA, hoping he can spot them using drones and press the button to kill them when he can. But reportedly, he is daily killing civilians and innocent citizens in Tigray, Amhara and some Oromia regions. The African Union, represented by Obasanjo, and even the rest of the world , especially the embassies that reside in Addis Ababa, are comfortably standing with the number-one genocidal group of the 21st century, led by the incompetent leader Abiy Ahmed Ali.
Editor’s Note: Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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