Negalegne M. Mandefiro
Foreign Policy and Conflict Analyst
Ethiopia faces renewed conflict risks amid unresolved trauma from past wars, requiring honest dialogue and healing rather than further violence. The country’s political elite’s failure to pursue reconciliation threatens to deepen divisions and suffering.
- Renewed conflict risks: Clashes along the Afar–Tigray border and ongoing violence in the Amhara and Oromia regions threaten to plunge Ethiopia into another devastating war.
- Lasting trauma from the Tigray War: The conflict caused mass atrocities, displacement, and destruction, leaving deep psychological and social scars yet to be addressed.
- Political elites hinder peace: Federal and regional leaders continue to propagate and militarize nationalism, echoing rhetoric that led to past conflicts, risking the repetition of disaster.
- Need for healing and accountability: Ethiopia requires truth-telling, restorative justice, and inclusive dialogue to confront trauma and rebuild trust among all communities.
- Federal government’s role: The government must end military operations targeting civilians, protect vulnerable communities, and engage in negotiations to resolve conflicts peacefully.
- Civic resistance and public voice: Citizens, activists, and diaspora must reject hate narratives and promote peace through dialogue and informed social media engagement despite repression.
- International community’s responsibility: Global actors should move beyond expressions of concern to actively support ceasefires, transparency, justice mechanisms, and humanitarian aid to prevent further violence in Ethiopia.
What’s Happening; What has Happened
A recent clash along the Afar–Tigray border sparked concerns that the country may be headed into another destructive cycle of war. The Afar regional state accused Tigray forces of crossing its border, seizing villages, and attacking civilians. The Tigray authorities denied the accusation while blaming the federal government for using a ‘Hara Meret’ militia to destabilize Tigray. This renewed crisis is emerging amid the ongoing conflict in Amhara and parts of Oromia.
Ethiopia has endured a cycle of violence over the past six years, with no lasting solutions in place to restore its stability. The Tigray War was marked by widespread atrocities, sexual violence, and displacement, leaving long-term scars on communities. The infrastructure damage caused by this war was substantial, requiring over 40 billion USD in rebuilding over the next five years.
Meanwhile, in Amhara and Oromia, ongoing clashes between federal and regional rebel forces continue to kill and displace residents. In the last three years in particular, the Amhara region has been engulfed by widespread kidnapping, school closures, and drone strikes that usually target civilians and public facilities. The western part of the Oromia region remained embroiled in a long-standing conflict despite two rounds of unsuccessful peace talks.
Yet, amid such a nationwide crisis, Ethiopia’s political elite, instead of taking tangible measures for reconciliation, post-conflict rehabilitation, and recovery, both federal and regional actors persist in broadcasting state-sponsored propaganda, vilifying one another, and romanticizing a militarized posture. The recent rhetoric from both the federal government and Tigrayan political elites bears an alarming resemblance to the toxic discourse that preceded the 2020–2022 Tigray conflict. If the lessons from that war haven’t been learned, the consequences of another could be even more disastrous.
The Weight of Trauma and the Need for Healing
Ethiopia’s wounds are not merely political; they are psychological, generational, and structural. The country has not yet recovered from the trauma of the Tigray War, nor from the ongoing violence in the Amhara and Oromia regions. Civilians who lost family members or were displaced have received little to no assistance. Infrastructure has not been fully repaired, and the humanitarian situation is dire. Millions remain in need of aid, and humanitarian access remains limited.
A society that fails to address its trauma is likely to “perpetuate” it. Ethiopia is on the same path. For the country to heal and progress, it needs a sincere national effort to confront its past tragedy through truth-telling, restorative justice, and inclusive dialogue. Unfortunately, Ethiopia’s government continues to recycle its propaganda to justify repression in the name of unity or stability.
Healing, therefore, is not a luxury; it is a national necessity. As scholars of transitional justice and peacebuilding have long argued, reconciliation cannot occur without accountability and truth. The government and regional actors must halt all forms of violence and begin an independent, inclusive, and internationally monitored dialogue that acknowledges the grievances of all communities, including the Amhara, Oromo, Tigrayan, and others.
The Federal Government should end its Intransigence.
Ethiopia’s federal government has repeatedly demonstrated an unwillingness or inability to resolve internal conflicts through peaceful and inclusive means. The prime minister and other top officials continued to downplay and delegitimize organized regional militias, referring to them as weak, mini-bandits, and visionless traditional militias. On the contrary, these groups have evident territorial control, administrative capacity, and sustained military effectiveness in several localities. Rather than pursuing negotiation, the government has resorted to indiscriminate military operations that have too often targeted civilians and public infrastructure, exacerbating humanitarian suffering and deepening societal mistrust.
The Federal government has persistently failed for over five years to protect civilians from repeated, ethnically motivated attacks, especially against Amhara communities in Oromia. Numerous reports documented atrocities in western Oromia, where dozens of civilians were killed or abducted. The most recent incident was the killing and kidnapping of Orthodox Christians in the East Arsi zone.
Therefore, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has a constitutional and moral duty to end the ongoing conflict in Amhara and Oromia and to address the concerns from the Tigray region. Meanwhile, the Tigray regional leadership and militia forces in other areas must avoid provocation and rhetoric that could trigger another war. On the other hand, rebel groups fighting the federal army, mainly in Amhara and Oromia, should participate in peace talks if conducive platforms are established. Sustainable peace will not come from unyielding propaganda and military might but from truth-telling and inclusive, honest dialogue.
Untapped Weapon: Civic Resistance
A coordinated public mobilization backed by effective civic resistance is the only peaceful force capable of ending the current crisis and preventing another wave of violence. The collective pressure from ordinary citizens provides the most direct check on state abuses and conflicts driven by elites. This could be a broad public mobilization and peaceful protests led by community networks, faith organizations, and professional groups. The diaspora can also play a vital role by actively engaging in coordinated public diplomacy and informing the international community, policymakers, and human rights organizations about the dire situation in Ethiopia.
Conclusion
At this time, Ethiopia’s bare minimum quest should be for peace, healing, and a future. The echoes of past wars are still loud, and the drums of new ones are beating again. Public silence, whether out of fear or fatigue, will only embolden those who profit from war.
Ethiopians, both at home and abroad, should unite around a shared moral belief: that no political cause can be sustainably achieved through violence and destruction. The government must end its wars in Amhara and Oromia. Regional forces and rebel groups must also refrain from provocation, and both must be willing to engage in an independent, inclusive, internationally monitored dialogue.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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