By – Habte H.
Ethiopia stands today as the world’s most populous landlocked country, with over 120 million citizens but no direct access to the sea. This reality is not just a geographical inconvenience; it is a strategic, economic, and existential challenge for a nation striving to break cycles of poverty and underdevelopment. Yet, while Ethiopia urgently needs and indeed deserves access to the sea, the current path suggested by Abiy Ahmed, and Co is the most dangerous and self-defeating one possible.
How Ethiopia Lost the Red Sea
Ethiopia was once a state with direct access to the Red Sea. This changed through the combination of colonial manipulations, the meddling of foreign powers such as Egypt, and the short-sightedness of Ethiopia’s rulers who failed to protect the long-term sovereignty of the nation. The secession of Eritrea, and later the permanent loss of Djibouti, were devastating blows. What Ethiopia inherited from those episodes was a zero-sum game: a proud, resource-rich, and populous country trapped inland, paying enormous costs for port services and heavily reliant on fragile diplomatic ties.
Haile Selassie, Mengistu Hailemariam, and later Meles Zenawi all mishandled this vital national interest. Instead of preserving or negotiating durable solutions, they allowed one of Ethiopia’s greatest strategic assets to slip away. What was lost through poor leadership and foreign intrigue cannot simply be regained by wishful thinking – or worse, by war.
Abiy’s Dangerous Gamble
Today, Abiy Ahmed and his circle of Oromo generals appear fixated on forceful solutions. Rumours and rhetoric about invading Eritrea to “reclaim” Red Sea access have grown louder. But this is neither realistic nor legitimate. Abiy and his party had a historic chance to re-open negotiations and build trust with neighbours. Instead, their egotism, narcissism, and erratic political ideology squandered opportunities. Now, with internal legitimacy gone and the country fractured, the PP seems to be turning outward, beating war drums to divert attention from domestic crises.
Several reasons make Abiy’s approach unacceptable and doomed:
- Negotiation, not force, is the only viable option. In today’s world, military adventurism brings massive human and material losses without sustainable gains. A war for ports would destabilize the Horn for generations.
- History warns against illusions. It took decades of struggle for Eritrea to defeat the heavily armed Derg. Ethiopia cannot expect a quick or bloodless takeover in the 21st century.
- Abiy lacks internal strength. A government deeply unpopular and unstable at home cannot successfully prosecute a war abroad. Attempting one risks permanent closure of diplomatic doors.
- The timing is wrong. Ethiopia today is governed by a party widely despised internally and lacking legal legitimacy in the eyes of many citizens. Waging war under these conditions makes the project illegitimate from the start.
- No sustainable outcome. Even if Ethiopia were to capture coastal territories by force, hostility with Eritrea would be entrenched, and Ethiopia’s long-term access to the sea would remain fragile and insecure.
- The real motive is political diversion. Abiy is not acting to solve Ethiopia’s strategic problems but to distract from his collapsing internal support. By creating external enemies, he hopes to rally a disillusioned public. But such tactics never work in the long run.
What Ethiopia Really Needs
Ethiopia must pursue sea access, but the strategy must be different. The path forward lies in regional diplomacy, economic partnerships, and mutual benefit. The Horn of Africa is already fragile, and another reckless war could unravel the entire region. Instead, Ethiopia should negotiate port rights, co-invest in infrastructure, and build interdependence that secures sustainable access without destabilizing its neighbours.
Djibouti, Somaliland, and even Eritrea can be partners if approached with seriousness and fairness. Ethiopia’s population size, market power, and resources give it strong leverage at the negotiation table. But that leverage must be exercised through diplomacy, not threats.
Conclusion: Stop Abiy’s Reckless Adventure
The call for war sounded by Abiy Ahmed and Co. is not a solution – it is a reckless gamble that would destroy Ethiopia’s prospects. War will not open the sea; it will bury Ethiopia deeper into isolation, hostility, and endless suffering. True patriots must resist this narcissistic adventurism. Ethiopia and Eritrea alike deserve peace, stability, and prosperity.
Ethiopia’s long-denied access to the sea can and must be achieved – but it will only come through responsible leadership, negotiation, and vision, not through Abiy’s war drums. Citizens, intellectuals, and regional actors must speak loudly now to stop Ethiopia from sliding into another tragic and unnecessary conflict.
The Abiy way is not the Ethiopian way.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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I am against Abiy who is the master of deception. However, I will be with him if he decided to get back port of Asseb and surrounding area by any means. It was unfair we lost Asseb when Eritrea decided to separate. Herman Cohn suggested to Meles to negotiate on Asseb but he didn’t do it assuming he Tirgray eventually would join Eritrea to make Ethiopia permanently land-locked. I don’t think the international community would cry for Eritrea which is under dictator Isayas for the last 34 years.
The existance of Eriteria as a nation hinges on the life span of Isayas Afewerki a dictator who ruled Eriteria since 1980 after the elimination of a rival liberation front ElF . Buying a time till his death a prudent way to reclaim port of Assab
In saying “Haile Selassie, Mengistu Hailemariam, and later Meles Zenawi all mishandled this vital national interest” you lumped together three historical events without caring to provide evidence. Meles definitely and deliberately mishandled Ethiopia’s interests. Mengistu Hailemariam? Not quite. Haileselassie? Not at all. Go figure.
King Haie Selasie abrogated the Ethio-Eriteria federation, while Mengstu intesefiy the terror upon Eriterians civilian population and killed General Aman Andom the pacifier for Eriterians crisis. Melse Zenawii had capitulated for every Isais Aferki’s demands for the sake of political stability to rule Ethiopia at hand of woyanee regime.
Good points. Haileselassie and Mengistu ruled during West-East rivalry. I understand they should have not carried on using force. But Meles’s was unnecessary. Even President Carter had to wonder why Meles was depriving his country a sea outlet! Meles repeated a similar folly during the 1998-2000 conflict when Tsadkan and few others brought up idea of reclaiming Assab. You need to read Dr. Yacob Hailemariam’s book on the legality of reclaiming Assab.
Good points. Haileselassie and Mengistu ruled during West-East rivalry. I understand they should have not carried on using force. But Meles’s was unnecessary. Even President Carter had to wonder why Meles was depriving his country a sea outlet! Meles repeated a similar folly during the 1998-2000 conflict when Tsadkan and few others brought up idea of reclaiming Assab. You need to read Dr. Yacob Hailemariam’s book on the legality of reclaiming Assab.
ሠበር Conclusion: Ethiopia doesn’t need any caveman’s consent to re-own its Land & Sea. Ethiopia also offers Free Shipping back to Eritrea for the ≥300K Eritreans in Addis.
Affar [south of Massawa to north of Djibouti]: It is the homeland of Ethiopian Affars. It has never been part of Eritrea. Eritrea annexed Affar in 1991 with TPLF’s blessing. The ‘Eritrean Affar’ was also concocted in 1991 to suit that narrative.
Imperial Era [IE] & Derg Era [DE]: During the IE, Affar was part of the Wollo Province. Under DE, Affar was an Autonomous Region like Gambella [formerly part of Illubabor].
Info: For those still in Stone Age with no Radio/TV/etc., Ethiopians elected Abiy’s Party [Abiy by default] with an on-site scrutiny by ‘International Observers’ [AU/UN/EU/US].
Ethiopia | Eritrea: Egypt has been using Eritrea(ns) to destabilize Ethiopia since the 1960s. Egypt has now turned Eritrea in to an Anti-Ethiopia Proxy Mercenary Hatching Hub.
Eritrea & Peace: Since its ‘independence,’ Eritrea has invaded Ethiopia, Sudan, Djibouti, and Yemen [The Hannish Islands]. Isn’t that why ‘Eritreans’ flee Eritrea in droves daily?
NB: ‘Eritreans’ are no more than the Property of Isayas Afewerqi [PIA]. So, can Ethiopia even hold talks with PIA about ጨው እና በርበሬ? It’s like Stone Age Era there!
Abiy Ahmed is in deep trouble and has brought forth the issue of port as an Amhara fooling tactic. I do not think his tactic will work because he has lost trust among the Amhara.