By Staff Writer
NAIROBI, Kenya — Worsening rainfall deficits driven by the El Niño climate phenomenon threaten Ethiopia’s electricity generation, raising concerns over energy security and power exports across East Africa.
With hydroelectric facilities generating approximately 95 to 97 percent of the national energy supply, state-owned utility Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) warned that prolonged dry conditions through late September could force emergency interventions, including load shedding and reduced cross-border electricity sales.
Projections from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute indicate that below-average seasonal precipitation across the central and western highlands could suppress water accumulation behind major dams.
EEP Public Relations Director Moges Mekonnen emphasized that if precipitation deficits persist through Sept. 30, critical hydroelectric reservoirs—including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)—will fall short of seasonal filling targets.
Insufficient seasonal inflows into the GERD’s 74-billion-cubic-meter reservoir could curtail baseline output at Africa’s largest hydroelectric facility.
This shortfall would force operational adjustments, including scaling back energy exports to neighboring nations, curtailing power allocations to high-consumption industrial sectors like data mining, prioritizing vital infrastructure, and maximizing output from wind power facilities.
The energy warning highlights a sharp geographical divide across the Horn of Africa, where El Niño produces severe rainfall shortages in western and central zones alongside heightened flood risks in eastern and southern regions.
Non-hydro sources, primarily wind farms like Aysha II and Adama, currently contribute under 5 percent of grid output, underscoring the system’s vulnerability to hydrological shocks.
Federal authorities noted that environmental programs have planted 48 billion tree seedlings over the past seven years—with 30 percent targeted around the Abay (Blue Nile) basin—to reduce reservoir siltation and preserve watershed hydrology.
The African Union and regional climate bodies have urged member states to prepare for persistent weather volatility, citing severe risks to agricultural yields, municipal water supplies, and regional energy infrastructure.
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This is not confined to the old country. El-Nino is causing major deficits where dams are at their lowest capacities due to historical severe droughts and in some cases dams being breached causing deadly floods because of too much rain. In the old country this weather phenomenon is drenching the central and eastern parts of the nation with too much rain resulting in deadly raging floods and landslides that killed hundreds while leaving the southern western parts of the country bone dry causing crop failures. Let’s hope it will be a one year occasion and end soon.