Dagmawi S. Mikael
In 2018, Abiy Ahmed was welcomed as a democratic reformer—a leader who promised to open political space, heal historic wounds, and guide Ethiopia toward stability. Six years later, that promise has collapsed. Ethiopia is not merely struggling; it is unraveling. And the blame lies squarely with the Prime Minister and the Prosperity Party he transformed into a one-party state.
Today, Ethiopia is a country consumed by war, governed by fear, and trapped in one of its worst economic crises in modern history. The government’s narrative of “reform” has proven to be a façade—rhetoric masking a militarized and increasingly autocratic project. Abiy has not built a new Ethiopia; he has presided over its fragmentation.
A State at War With Its Own People
Abiy’s Ethiopia is one where dissent is treated as treason and political grievances are met with battalions rather than dialogue. The militarization of politics has hollowed out civilian authority, replaced regional administrations with military command posts, and normalized violence as a governing tool.
In Amhara and Oromia, counterinsurgency campaigns amount to collective punishment:
- villages sealed off,
- young men rounded up en masse,
- house-to-house raids,
- and indiscriminate killings of civilians caught between armed groups and the state.
These operations are routinely hidden behind information blackout warfare—internet shutdowns and telecom restrictions timed to coincide with military actions. This tactic, perfected during the Tigray war, continues to conceal abuses and silence communities.
Hunger, too, has become a weapon. Aid has been blocked, humanitarian workers detained, and relief efforts politicized. Ethnic profiling—through targeted arrests, job dismissals, and travel restrictions—has further deepened the fractures in an already fragile country.
Promises of transitional justice have collapsed. Investigations were abandoned once they threatened those in power. Courts function as instruments of repression, and forced conscription sweeps up young men in multiple regions.
Federalism—the constitutional backbone of Ethiopia’s political system—has been gutted. Loyalists, not elected leaders, govern regions once promised autonomy.
Economic Free-Fall
If war is the signature of Abiy’s rule, economic decline is its inevitable consequence.
A rapidly militarized budget has starved health, education, infrastructure, and social services. Foreign investors—once Ethiopia’s engine of industrialization—have fled due to instability, legal unpredictability, and arbitrary policymaking.
The currency crisis is acute. Forex shortages and a soaring black-market rate have created fertile ground for corruption. Agriculture has declined under insecurity, fertilizer shortages, displacement, and policy confusion. Manufacturing—once Ethiopia’s rising star—has stalled. Industrial parks now operate at a fraction of their capacity, with many companies downsizing or departing.
A historic brain drain is underway. Doctors, engineers, academics, entrepreneurs—Ethiopians across the professional spectrum are leaving in record numbers, draining the country of vital talent.
And Ethiopia’s 2023 sovereign default was no surprise. It was the logical result of years of opaque borrowing, central bank overdrafts, and economic mismanagement.
Public services reflect this collapse. Hospitals lack basic supplies. Schools struggle to operate. Local government is paralyzed in conflict-affected regions. The state is failing at its most fundamental responsibilities.
The Architecture of a Modern Autocracy
The Prosperity Party now monopolizes every lever of the state. Opposition parties have been jailed, exiled, or suffocated through bureaucracy and intimidation. Elections have become rituals of control, not expressions of public will.
Decision-making is concentrated within the Prime Minister’s Office and intelligence networks. Parliament is symbolic. State media has become a propaganda machine constructing a personality cult around Abiy while silencing independent journalism.
The result is a profound rupture between society and the state. Ethiopians are exhausted—by war, repression, and economic hardship—and disillusioned with institutions that no longer serve them.
Ethiopia Deserves Better — And The Path Forward Is Clear
Ethiopia will not escape this crisis through denial, propaganda, or more war. The country needs a new direction—one rooted in openness, justice, and shared power. That path begins with several urgent steps:
1. Reopen Political Space Fully and Unconditionally
Opposition parties must be allowed to organize, campaign, speak, and operate freely.
- Release political prisoners.
- Restore licenses of banned parties.
- Permit exiled leaders to return without intimidation.
Democracy cannot breathe in a suffocated political environment.
2. End the Climate of Fear
Remove the military from civilian governance.
- Halt mass arrests and collective punishment.
- End house-to-house raids.
- Stop internet shutdowns designed to hide abuses.
Ethiopians must be able to express dissent without risking jail or death.
3. Establish a Truly Independent National Dialogue
Not the staged forums controlled by government loyalists, but a genuine negotiation bringing together:
- opposition parties,
- regional leaders,
- civil society,
- faith institutions,
- women’s and youth groups,
- and the diaspora.
Ethiopia’s future cannot be dictated; it must be negotiated.
4. Restore Genuine Federalism
Regions must regain autonomy stripped away during the Prosperity Party’s centralization drive. Imposed leadership and militarized governance only deepen resentment and fuel rebellion.
5. Launch a Real Transitional Justice Process
A credible, independent process must investigate all actors—not selectively.
- Protect victims.
- Offer reparations.
- Ensure accountability insulated from political interference.
Peace is impossible without justice.
6. Stop the Wars and Pursue Negotiated Peace
There is no military solution in Amhara, Oromia, or Tigray.
- Declare humanitarian ceasefires.
- Open aid corridors.
- Engage in mediated peace talks.
- Demobilize militias with international support.
A country cannot bomb its way to unity.
7. Rebuild the Economy Through Stability and Transparency
Shift national priorities away from war and toward recovery.
- Reduce military spending.
- Stabilize the currency.
- Bring transparency to public finances.
- Revive agriculture with inputs and security
- Rebuild investor confidence.
Without economic revival, social stability will remain out of reach.
8. Protect Media Freedom and End Propaganda-Rule
Unblock the press. Allow independent journalism. Stop criminalizing reporters. A nation cannot rebuild while blindfolded.
9. Rebuild Institutions, Not Personal Rule
Strengthen courts, parliament, local government, and the civil service.
Personality-driven governance is unstable. Institutional governance endures.
10. Land Reform and Codified Property Rights
Ethiopia’s economy and social cohesion cannot recover without addressing land insecurity:
- Clearly codify property and land ownership rights to protect farmers, urban residents, and investors.
- End arbitrary expropriations and politically motivated land seizures.
- Ensure that land disputes are settled through independent courts, not local power brokers or military authorities.
Secure land tenure is critical for agricultural productivity, investment, and long-term stability. Without it, poverty, displacement, and conflict will continue to feed each other.
The Choice Ahead
Ethiopia stands at a crossroads. It can continue down the path of war, repression, and economic collapse—or choose a new path grounded in openness, justice, and shared power.
Abiy Ahmed once promised to unify the country. Instead, he may be remembered as the leader who broke it.
A different Ethiopia is still possible. But it requires confronting the reality of the present—and demanding a government grounded in legitimacy, not fear, violence, and propaganda.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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