By Tanaado Baahale Mohamed
Once hailed as Africa’s defiant beacon for resisting Europe’s 19th-century Scramble for Africa, Ethiopia now teeters on the brink of collapse—haunted by the very imperial legacies it once defied. While Emperor Menelik II’s 1896 victory at Adwa against Italian colonizers remains a symbol of African sovereignty, Ethiopia’s own late-19th-century territorial expansions sowed seeds of discord that fester today. The annexation of Oromo, Somali, and other territories under a centralized Amhara-dominated crown created hierarchies of power and identity that now fuel rebellions from Tigray to Ogaden. This unresolved history collides catastrophically with modern crises: a peace deal with the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) lies in tatters, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s regime flounders amid insurgencies and economic freefall, and Eritrea—a former province lost to Ethiopia’s imperial unraveling—exploits the chaos. As ethnic factions revive century-old grievances and rumors swirl of rebel alliances backed by Asmara, Ethiopia risks fracturing into a mosaic of warring states, mirroring the fragmentation it once resisted during the colonial carve-up of 1884.
The ONLF Debacle: Peace Deals as Political Theater
The ONLF’s repatriation in 2018 was touted as a triumph of Abiy’s “medemer” (unity) philosophy. Yet, five years later, the group alleges systemic exclusion from regional governance and security structures. This mirrors a broader pattern: peace agreements in Ethiopia often serve as PR tools for Addis Ababa rather than frameworks for genuine power-sharing. The Somali region’s marginalization underscores the federal government’s failure to reconcile its centralized authority with the autonomy demands of restive states—a contradiction tearing the nation apart.
Tigray’s Agony: Isolation as a Tinderbox
The Tigray war (2020–2022) left over 600,000 dead and a region in ruins. Though a ceasefire halted active combat, Tigray remains cut off from national political processes, its reconstruction funds frozen, and its leadership, the TPLF, treated as pariahs. The Amhara region’s occupation of Western Tigray—a zone now ethnically cleansed of Tigrayans—remains a flashpoint. With Eritrea’s dictator Isaias Afwerki still hostile to the TPLF, Tigray’s isolation risks metastasizing into a frozen conflict that could reignite at any provocation
Abiy’s Ally to Fano’s Revolt
The Amhara region, instrumental in Abiy’s war against Tigray, now hosts Ethiopia’s most potent insurgency. The Fano militia, once a federal partner, accuses Abiy of “selling” Amhara interests by neglecting territorial claims in Tigray and Oromia. Federal troops have responded with brutal crackdowns, displacing half a million Amharas. This schism reveals the fatal flaw in Abiy’s strategy: reliance on ethnic militias to fight his wars has only armed and empowered rivals who now turn their guns on the state.
The OLA and the Crisis of Inclusion
In Oromia, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has expanded its reach, exploiting widespread anger over land dispossession, political exclusion, and state violence. The government’s designation of the OLA as “terrorists” has justified indiscriminate drone strikes and mass arrests, further alienating Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group. Abiy, an Oromo himself, has failed to address the community’s historic grievances, instead doubling down on militarization. The result is a self-sustaining cycle of rebellion and repression that destabilizes the nation’s economic and agricultural core.
Western Abandonment and Eritrea’s Shadow
Once a Nobel laureate celebrated for democratic reforms, Abiy now presides over a regime accused of war crimes and rigged elections. Western donors, disillusioned by the Tigray war’s atrocities and the suppression of dissent, have slashed aid and imposed sanctions. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s relationship with Eritrea—once Abiy’s staunch ally—has soured, with Asmara resentful of perceived slights and eager to weaken Addis Ababa. Eritrea’s hostility could incentivize it to covertly support a coalition of anti-Abiy forces, including the TPLF, Fano, OLA, and ONLF—a nightmare scenario for Ethiopian unity.
Economy, Institutions, and the Human Toll
Ethiopia’s GDP growth has plummeted from 10% pre-pandemic to fewer than 6%, while inflation exceeds 30%. The national currency, the birr, is in free-fall, and debt defaults loom. Institutions like the judiciary and electoral commission are hollowed out, and the military is overstretched, relying on drones from Turkey and the UAE to hold territory. Over 4 million remain internally displaced, while 20 million need food aid due to drought and war. These metrics align with Global South “failed state” frameworks: loss of territorial control, eroded legitimacy, and incapacity to provide security or services.
Will Eritrea Fuel a Rebel Alliance?
The greatest danger lies in the potential unification of Ethiopia’s disparate rebellions. A TPLF desperate to end Tigray’s isolation, Fano’s Amhara nationalism, the OLA’s quest for Oromia’s self-rule, and the ONLF’s unmet demands could—if tacitly backed by Eritrea—form a loose anti-Abiy front. Such an alliance might not seek secession but rather to fragment Ethiopia into ethnic zones, rendering the federal government irrelevant. Eritrea, with its historical desire to weaken Ethiopia, could provide arms, funding, or safe havens to accelerate this fragmentation.
Conclusion:
Ethiopia is not yet a failed state, but it is sliding inexorably toward that abyss. To reverse course, Abiy must abandon his reliance on coercion and initiate an unconditional national dialogue, including the TPLF, OLA, Fano, and ONLF. The constitution’s ethnic federalism model needs renegotiation to balance regional autonomy with shared nationhood. International actors, meanwhile, must pressure Eritrea to cease meddling and broker talks before the state fractures entirely.
If these steps are not taken, Ethiopia—a civilization-spanning empire turned modern federation—may dissolve, triggering a humanitarian catastrophe and regional chaos. The choice is stark: a negotiation.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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I sense These days :
on this page articles posted as new upheaval is brewing in Ethiopia which was an event known by public as norm by OLNF “Ogaden Liberation Front” activists. where were you for last 6 years now flooding this website with such alarming news