By Habte H.
In recent years, a powerful narrative – both written and implied – has taken hold in Ethiopia’s political discourse: that influential Oromo leader, including Abiy Ahmed, Shimelis Abdisa, and other key figures within federal and regional structures, are not merely governing but believe that they are laying the groundwork for a millennia-long Oromo hegemony. This vision imagines a political order lasting a century, akin to the Solomonic, Aksumite, or Zagwe dynasties, but cantered on Oromummaa as a ruling ideology.
Proponents of this view argue that the Oromo people have been historically denied their rightful place in Ethiopia’s power structure and that the present moment offers a historic chance to correct centuries of exclusion. In pursuit of this objective, some within the leadership appear willing to tolerate severe human, social, and economic costs to secure what they frame as permanent dominance.
But is this belief accurate? And more critically: in today’s Ethiopia – and today’s world – is this project even feasible?
- The world has changed: Hegemony is harder than ever
In pre-modern times, long-lasting dynasties were built on a formula of cohesive populations, a unifying imperial ideology, near-total monopolies on violence and information, and minimal external scrutiny. Crucially, none of these pillars exist in contemporary Ethiopia. Today, digital information defies state control; international norms, however imperfect, check the worst abuses of power; and a politically conscious public, shaped by decades of discourse on rights and democracy, demands accountability. In this interconnected and informed landscape, a project of single-group ethnic hegemony is not merely morally dangerous—it is a structural impossibility, destined to fragment under modern pressures.
- The TPLF Precedent: A Failed Blueprint for Control
The TPLF-led EPRDF regime offers a potent contemporary lesson in the limits of engineered dominance. It was a system meticulously built for endurance, fortified by a formidable security apparatus, rigid party discipline, and pervasive intelligence networks. Yet, within less than three decades, it imploded. Its collapse was driven by overwhelming public resentment, fatal fractures within its own elite, and the unsustainable gap between its proclaimed “revolutionary democracy” and the lived reality of ethnic favoritism and injustice. If this sophisticated, entrenched project could not last a generation, what logic suggests a fledgling Oromo-centric hegemony could endure for a millennium?
- Motivation Without Competence Is a Recipe for Collapse
Perhaps the most alarming aspect of the current hegemonic ambition is not its existence but its execution. The drive appears fuelled more by historical grievance and zero-sum ethnic calculus than by a vision of competent, inclusive statecraft. Governance has increasingly relied on coercion, ethnic mobilization, and the systematic appointment of loyalists overqualified professionals – a practice openly acknowledged in some political circles. This erodes state capacity and is deeply unjust not only to non-Oromo Ethiopians but also to capable Oromos side-lined by a system that values loyalty over merit. No fragile, multi-ethnic state can sustain itself on such foundations.
- The Old Tools of Empire Are Gone
Historical empires-maintained control through a passive populace, a monopoly on violence, tight control of information, and minimal foreign interference. Today’s would-be hegemons hold none of these cards. Ethiopians are politically aware and less tolerant of naked domination. Violence is decentralized, information escapes state control, and regional and international actors – however opportunistic – create limits on extreme behaviour. Attempting to build a centuries-long ethnic empire now is like sailing a wooden ship in the age of satellites and drones: the tools are obsolete for the times.
- The Project Harms the Very People It Claims to Elevate
The greatest tragedy may be that this hegemonic pursuit inflicts profound damage on ordinary Oromos, in whose name it is allegedly advanced. Most seek security, dignity, economic opportunity, and cultural equality – not dominion over others. By chasing ethnic supremacy, the leadership risks fueling Oromophobia, reinforcing damaging stereotypes, and ensuring that the legitimate aspirations of the Oromo people are buried under the backlash against an unattainable fantasy. Years of instability, economic decline, and social fragmentation under the current order have already tarnished the reputation of Oromo leadership – and, unfairly, that of Oromo citizens broadly.
- Other Ethiopians Will Not Acquiesce – And Should Not
Other nations and peoples within Ethiopia have rightly perceived the attempt to institutionalize long-term ethnic dominance. The response has not been submission but growing resistance. A political project perceived as locking in ethnic supremacy for generations does not produce stability – it guarantees protracted conflict. Ethiopia’s future cannot be built on the permanent subordination of any group. The only viable foundation is a democratic, just, and equitable political order.
In Short: A Dangerous and Impossible Fantasy
In short, the pursuit of enduring ethnic hegemony is both morally indefensible and practically impossible. It sacrifices the legitimacy of Oromo political leadership, deepens inter-ethnic resentment, corrodes state institutions through ethicized patronage, and pushes the country toward violent polarization. The age of millennial dynasties is over. What Ethiopia needs is not ethnic entitlement, but inclusive governance, justice, and real democracy, not hegemony, but competence and fairness.
It is time for all leaders – Oromo and non-Oromo alike – to abandon the fantasy of eternal ethnic rule and focus on building a state where no group dominates, and no group lives in fear of domination. That is the only path forward for a united, functioning Ethiopia – and the only ground on which all its people, including the Oromo, can walk with dignity.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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A 1000-year Oromo rule is “A Dangerous and Impossible Fantasy” because you plucked it out of thin air. You need to stop quoting long-winded and headless Abiy Ahmed and Shimelis Abdissa.
This is one of those articles writing out of hot air that I read in utter contempt. Sir/Madam, please go back and read the factual history of the old country and read it with undivided attention. While doing so, please have experts analyze your genome. You may either find a pleasant surprise, or you may stop talking/writing altogether to let people think that you have lost it all.
Your answer is not supported by good arguments. You simply said: Oromos can’t rule Ethiopia for 1000 years because old tools of empire are gone. Your mentioning of Solomonic, Aksumite, or Zagwe dynasties, is not productive and it didn’t help you in your reasoning.
The reason behind the long lasting dynasties of Solomonic, Aksumite, and Zagwe dynasties, is the unity of purpose. Ethiopians were united against foreign invaders such as the Ottomans, Egyptians, Italians, and Islamists. When the threat gets reduced, the unity of the ethiopians evaporated, forcing the empires to collapse.
What is uniting the Oromos is their Clan based social structure and their hate for the Amharas. The Oromo Clan based social and organizational structure emphasizes closer kinship ties. Clans and kinship ties influence family life, social activity, political alliance, and even how individuals interact within their community. The Oromos will either rule for 1000 years, or declare their independence and form the Oromo ethnic state. When the Amhara people are eliminated, the unifying cause of the Oromos will evaporate, causing the collapse of the Oromo hegemonic interests and the Oromo hegemonic aspirations.