By Samuel Estefanous
(Part I of Between Arkebe Workshops and Adanech Broadways)
Pretty much a done deal, isn’t it? I mean the outcome of the 7th National Election. It is a shame when elections are so damn predictable to the last polling station. Democracy loses purpose and meaning. As this is being written, the only surprising outcome recorded was the HoPR seat won by an independent candidate upsetting the incumbent MP, Dr.Abebaw of ANM. Look the first part of this piece was written before the election and this second part afterwards but little is left for margin of error. All the declared 17 non-PP candidates were made to win by default to serve PP’s broader election strategy. If you ask me it is tokenism writ large.
The Broadway camp is winning in flying colors. However it looks too damn good to be enjoyed. I am sure top PP cadres are pondering all night long-what is the catch here? They might be poring over articles sponsored by Western think-tanks like Chatham House which are running headers that read ‘Ethiopia needs more than an Election….’
On its part, the Opposition should take the time to figure out ‘How come Dr.Abebaw had lost to an obscure low profile independent candidate?’ It is more than a seat lost. Never forget that taking Addis folks for granted is tantamount to being a confirmed political rookie.
1-Before even the dust settles
In the preceding article I reiterated that I enjoyed reading Berket Simon’s books though I took issue with the findings. Guess who goaded me to read Bereket in the first place? Tesfaye Gebreab and Ermias Legesse. They depicted a hydra headed monster in their blind effort to be unconditionally loved and respected by town folks. I was like he couldn’t be as bad as all that if indeed he was, he might as well have been an evil maverick. He was neither evil nor a maverick. Appears to me, he is just a man who had a solid purpose in life and who had given it his all, right or wrong.
In one of his writings he proudly narrates how following the landslide wins (by EPRDF in the 5th National election) the diplomatic community in Addis descended at his office in droves demanding ‘what is the point of staging an election if you are ‘winning’ all the 547 seats?’
Bereket discards diplomatic finesse and boasts how he had reduced the diplomats to ‘blushing crimson red’. He was so elated by this alleged victory that the altercation with the diplomats became a subtitle in the book-what is the fate of multiparty democracy in the context where a single party wins all polls? Guess who is having the last laugh? A pity our dark complexion has spared us ‘blushing’ to the root of our hair, otherwise Bereket would have blushed beetroot red.
If it has got the common sense beyond the narratives, PP has the benefit of hindsight to capitalize on EPRDF’s epic failures and blunders. I have reason to believe that the spirit of the leadership is dampened by the excessively wide margin of victory and the fear of the untoward consequences resulting from the ultimate Election Victory de ja vu. Believe me unlike Berket, Dr.Abiy is in no mood to deride Addis Diplomatic Corps until they blush. He knows how to pull the strings like a master puppeteer. Otherwise Addis wouldn’t have hosted a record number of heads of government and state in the past twelve months while Ethiopians are suffering the full impact of state capture, inter-ethnic conflict, and the curse of the toxic social media.
After all he isn’t a member of the cast of ‘that 70s Show’ starring EPRP, AESM et al.
2-Pinning all hopes on Corruption to effect regime change
EPRDF was cut into half by that flesh eating killer parasite called corruption. The first victim of corruption is the culprit himself, his family and friendship loop. They begin to rot inside out and lose that mysterious sense of direction and purpose that keeps a politician going. Corrupt officials are cruel and vicious. Empathy isn’t in their vocabulary. They become paranoid and begin kicking in all directions. They tend to raise towering fortified concrete fences in all their houses located in multiple towns and man the sentry boxes with merciless battle hardened security details.
They are already behind bars-I mean behind fences. Next they frequent travelling abroad and trying to network with associates in Dublin, Washington or Dubai. Before they know it they are already pitted against each other. A rift opens and afterwards it is business as usual. Bingo regime change is effected just like that! We are already witnessing it. I mean , isn’t the Auditor General’s report alone alarming enough? Ethiopia is angling the fishing rod into the pond and PP officials are swallowing the bait. In no time they will be reeled in and relocated to a cozy little place called Central.
Unless it watches it’s back that is. All corrupt politicians, officials and businesses play one winning card-ethnicity. Both in government and Opposition ethnic politics and corruption are like hand and glove. Their partnership is enviable. A few years ago, we were riding a mini-van taxi to one of the Sheger townships and to say the cab was packed like sardine is an understatement. After complaining repeatedly, one of our fellow commuters called the cops on the driver and conductor. The driver was duly fined and instructed to report to the station ‘after taking the commuters to the last destination’. We didn’t go much when the driver with a great sense of being betrayed and like one who had suffered the ultimate injustice tearfully inquired of the lady…how could you do this to me being one of us?!
3- Tax ‘em till they drop dead!
When Minister Ahmed Shide disclosed the 2.34 trillion birr budget our jaws dropped. You know why? It is a bad omen foretelling the coming hard times when we might begin to pay in wads of two hundred birr bills for a family meal of four. As if that isn’t enough, Shide went on to break the details. The one that caught my attention was the chunk of the budget (1.6 trillion birr) is projected to be financed by domestic revenue. Right away, economists began painting the actual grim reality. They told us in terms of hard currency per capita reckoning, the 2.34 billion budget spending ratio is actually lower than that of the poorest country in the World-Burundi!
You can imagine the cumulative effect of the combined forces of these factors on the wage earning public. The transition from hunger to anger becomes instant and is ethnic neutral; it creates a natural bond of comradeship across all spectrum of life.
The revised Income tax proclamation has already begun edging out established business. You have only to read the press release by Ethiopian Pulses, Oil seeds and Spices Processors and Exporters Association to learn of the predicament business is enduring. Add to that the lukewarm work ethic in Ethiopia and the predatory nature of the regulatory bodies.
They are hacking away at legit businesses. In this connection to a certain extent I agree with what the Premier had said on one occasion-ironic as it may sound, Ethiopia suffers from lack of labour as much as Canada does. Look, the FDI is hooked on the presumed abundantly available comparative cheap labor and on the fact that Ethiopia got one of the lowest median ages in the world (19years). The stats are impeccable but the reality on the ground doesn’t match up. You know what the Chinese foremen do to counter the lukewarm work ethics? They shortened the length of the spade handle by half to prevent workers spending half the day on the long stem and dozing off.
Bottom-line, multinational companies are driven by profit, if they don’t get it they will scout for the next better destination which heralds a spiking unemployment rate, something any sensible government fears like the plague.
God Bless.
The writer can be reached at : estefanoussamuel@yahoo.com
Editor’s Note: Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
__
Join our Telegram Channel: t.me/borkena
Like borkena on Facebook
To submit a press release, send the submission to info@borkena.com
Add your business to Ethiopian Business Listing / Ethiopian Business Directory
Join the conversation. Follow us on X (formerly Twitter) @zborkena to get the latest Ethiopian news updates regularly.
To Support Borkena : https://borkena.com/subscribe-borkena/—one- time support or small monthly options available. Inquire information about it : info@borkena.com