The Marriage of Convenience between Isaias Afwerki’s Regime and Ethiopian Political Groups
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
Gezahegn Engida
Ethiopia’s political opposition is once again facing a familiar test — how to deal with Isaias Afwerki. The ongoing dispute between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Isaias over the Port of Assab has forced opposition groups to take a stand. The question is whether they have learned from the past, when some of them served as Isaias’s tools and allies, often against Ethiopia’s own interests. Judging by today’s discussions, the answer seems to be no. The same old excuses are being repeated: “We will ally with the devil,” “There are no permanent friends or enemies,” or “If we don’t make this alliance, our people will perish.”
Half a century ago, Ethiopian opposition groups made a similar mistake. Driven by their hatred of Mengistu Haile Mariam’s brutal regime, they sided with Isaias and his rebel movement, Shabia, which was heavily supported by Egypt and other Arab states. Together with the TPLF, OLF, and others, they weakened Ethiopia’s army by opening new battlefronts, spreading disinformation, and even joining in military operations. Without their help, Eritrea’s secession — despite Shabia’s later claims — would never have succeeded.
Now history threatens to repeat itself. Many in the opposition are letting their anger and bitter contempt toward Abiy’s dictatorship cloud their judgment about Ethiopia’s real national interest — in this case, the rightful effort to regain access to the Port of Assab.
The Danger of Short-Term Alliances
History shows that short-term political alliances with harmful groups almost always end in disaster. When politicians focus only on quick wins or power struggles, they ignore what truly matters for their country’s long-term stability.
One of the biggest mistakes leaders make is confusing tactical advantage with strategic interest. A short-term deal might bring temporary relief or help defeat an opponent, but if it goes against the nation’s long-term goals, it creates deeper problems. Slogans like “We will ally with the devil” or “There are no permanent friends or enemies” may sound clever, but they often justify reckless choices that weaken national unity.
These alliances are usually defended with emotional claims like, “If we don’t do this, our people will perish.” But such arguments hide a deeper failure — the inability to see the bigger picture. Leaders focused only on their immediate enemy ignore the long-term threat posed by their so-called allies. They may win a political battle, but lose the nation in the process.
Somalia’s tragic history is a warning. Over the years, various groups formed temporary alliances to fight their rivals, only to tear the country apart and destroy its central government. Ethiopia’s political elites have made similar mistakes, repeatedly teaming up with long-time adversaries — including Egypt, Sudan, and others — just to weaken domestic opponents. These short-sighted choices have repeatedly damaged Ethiopia’s unity and national strength.
In the end, chasing power through dangerous alliances reveals a lack of vision. When leaders choose convenience over principle, they risk the nation’s future. The lesson is clear: shortcuts to power may seem tempting, but they often lead to ruin.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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This article seems reasonable at the outset but it forgets the reason why Abiye is demanding sea access at this time before stabilizing the country? Why not deal with Amhara Fano and OLA politically and come up with a long term solution for the country than for his political interest? It is otally unfair to blame the opposition. Eritrea’s issue is always internal for Ethiopia.
This is spot on! Now history threatens to repeat itself.
“Many in the opposition are letting their anger and bitter contempt toward Abiy’s dictatorship cloud their judgment about Ethiopia’s real national interest — in this case, the rightful effort to regain access to the Port of Assab.”
This is not simple, we face a three-way dilemma : 1. Assab was rightly Ethiopian, and Ethiopians don’t recognize a treaty between two anti-Ethiopian bandits, Meles and Isayas. 2 War is the worst method of solving the issue. 3. On one side we fight Abiy, a tyrant, his regime a dictatorship , on the other Isayas is rallying our enemies in the Horn. Isayas has always fought to unmake Ethiopia, using naive Ethiopians, and mercenaries.
There’s no one to support in this alignment – it’s like preparing simultaneously for fire, flood and earthquake.
Whatever the choice, in this particular territorial controversy, war is not an alternative .The international community – which has forgotten the Ethiopian people must now act to stop the madness – for its own sake too.
There are no opposition groups in Ethiopia, because it is ethnicity that dictates everything in Ethiopia.
You said : ” when leaders choose convenience over principle, they risk the nation’s future. ”
Abiy Ahmed came to power with ethnic political convenience.
You said : ” shortcuts to power may seem tempting, but they often lead to ruin.”
The shortcut that brought Abiy Ahmed to power is ethnic politics.