By Dula
Ethiopia is in crisis. Millions are displaced, and ethnic violence continues unabated. Once a beacon of African independence and resilience, the country now teeters on the brink of collapse. The root cause is not hidden in ambiguity—it is visible in broad daylight. It is not a question of economic complexity or ideological differences. It is, fundamentally, the poisoned seed of ethnic federalism—the Killil system—introduced by the TPLF regime in the 1990s.
It has grown into a tree of discord, death, and destruction. It requires a drastic and immediate action to excise from Ethiopian life to liberate and transform Ethiopia. It has served no Ethnic group, and the only ones who benefited were TPLF operators.
To the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission,
Despite this reality, the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission is wasting time and resources on superficial discussions instead of addressing this fundamental issue. Without tackling the problem of ethnic federalism, Ethiopia will never be a stable, economically or politically viable country. The current structure is making Ethiopia a battlefield for internal militias and a target for foreign adversaries like Egypt.
Ethnic Federalism Is the Core Problem
Ethnic federalism was presented as a way to empower oppressed groups. In reality, it entrenched tribal divisions, gave rise to armed militias, and undermined any possibility of national unity. Under this structure, regions became ethnic strongholds, where local elites mobilized their populations along tribal lines, not civic values.
The Commission’s Failure to Prioritize the Real Issue
The National Dialogue Commission was established to resolve the crisis, but it has become part of the bureaucracy. While lives are lost daily to ethnic conflict, the Commission is fixated on vague consensus-building exercises, bypassing the hard but necessary debate on dismantling Article 39 of the constitution—the clause that gives regions the right to secede. The Commission’s failure to address the structural problem of ethnic federalism is not neutral. It is a political choice, one that delays justice, postpones reform, and contributes to national instability.
Civil War Warning Signs Are Already Present
In her book How Civil Wars Start, political scientist Barbara F. Walter identifies clear patterns that precede civil conflict: factionalized elites, politicized identity, and weakened central institutions. Ethiopia today fits this profile exactly. Walter writes, “The most dangerous type of factionalism is one built around identity.” Ethiopia’s constitutionally mandated ethnic boundaries guarantee that every political question becomes an ethnic one. Every grievance turns into an identity grievance. Every protest turns into tribal conflict. These are the exact ingredients that fuel civil wars. Ethiopia is not approaching the edge of war. It is already in a low-grade civil conflict in multiple regions. Pretending otherwise does not help. The sooner this truth is accepted, the sooner meaningful reform can begin.
What Must Be Done Immediately
We urge the Commission and the Ethiopian government to take the following urgent steps:
- Repeal Article 39 and End Ethnic Federalism
Article 39 provides a legal pathway for national disintegration. It must be removed. No functioning state can survive with a built-in exit clause for its regions. - Redraw Administrative Boundaries
Ethiopia’s internal boundaries must be redesigned around economic and geographic logic, not ethnicity. The old provincial system worked better than the current fractured model. Economically viable zones can promote integration rather than separation. - Ban Ethnic-Based Parties and Media
These institutions are designed to deepen division. A party should represent ideas and policies, not bloodlines. Similarly, tribal media must be held accountable for incitement and misinformation. - Federalize All Regional Militias
Local ethnic armies pose a direct threat to national unity. They must be integrated into a single federal force under central command. - Adopt a Merit-Based Governance System
Appointments and opportunities should be based on qualifications and performance, not ethnic background. This is essential for rebuilding trust in government.
Ethiopia Is at a Crossroads
The country’s future now hinges on whether it can move beyond its current ethnic structure. The Woyane system of governance has collapsed. What remains is a fragmented state vulnerable to foreign manipulation and domestic implosion. Ethiopia has already become a playground for foreign actors like Egypt, who exploit its internal divisions to advance their own agendas. Ethiopia will not survive if Killil remains. The choice is simple: either dismantle the ethnic federal system and create a unified civic nation, or continue down the path toward state failure.
Conclusion
The Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission must recognize that there can be no meaningful dialogue without addressing the real problem: ethnic federalism. This is not a time for academic exercises or roundtable diplomacy. It is time to make the hard decisions necessary to save the country. Start by advocating the repeal of Article 39. Push for the end of Killil. Recommend a merit-based, unified system. Anything less is a betrayal of your mandate—and of the people.
Dula Abdu is a U.S.-based writer and former lecturer specializing in economics, politics, finance, and technology.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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ኢትዮጵያ እየዳከረች ነው!
It is historically timely to repeal Article 39 : The Oromo dominated government is trending to greater Ethiopianism, using as political catalyst the territorial claims of Red sea coast, the inauguration of the Grand Dam, the disarray of ethnic extremist forces from Norh and South. The ” boy king ” can turn him self to ” Wise King “
1). ኢትዮጵያ ለኢትዮጵያውያን :- ስለ ኢትዮጵያ የመናገር መብት – ኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ የሚኖሩት ኢትዮጵያውያን ብቻ መሆን አለበት። ለምንድነው ENDC- ውጪ ሐገር በውጭ ሐገር ዜጋነት ለሚኖሩት ‘ትውልደ-ኢትዮጵያውያን’ – የኢትዮጵያ ጉዳይ ውስጥ ጣልቃ መግባት የሚፈቀደው? የሚወሰነው ውሳኔ የሚጎዳው – ኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ የሚኖሩትን ኢትዮጵያውያን ሕይወት አይደለም ወይ?
2). ኢትዮጵያን ለቀቅ – [NO ‘ዲ’ያስፖራ]:- የኮቪድ ወረርሺኝ ያነሰ ይመስል – TPLF የኢትዮጵያን ሰሜን ዕዝ በተኙበት ጨፍጭፎ – ማይካድራ ላይ ደግሞ ≥600 አማራን ጨፍጭፎ — በአሜሪካ እና በግብፅ ድጋፍ ኢትዮጵያ ላይ ጦርነት አውጆ – እንደገና ሥልጣን ለመያዝ ደብረ ብርሐን የደረሰ ጊዜ — ምዕራባውያን ደግሞ በአሜሪካ መሪነት TPLFን ደግፈው – ኢትዮጵያ ላይ እገዳ እና ማዕቀብ በጣሉበት ወቅት — አብይ ለዳያስፖራው→“አንዲት ስኒ ቡና የምትጠጡባትን አንዲት ዶላር እንኳን ለኢትዮጵያ ላኩ!” ሲል – አንዲትን ዶላር እንኳን ኢትዮጵያን የነፈገ ተባይ ዳያስፖራ – ስለ ኢትዮጵያ የመናገር መብት ይገባዋል ወይ?
3). Democracy|Domestic Terrorism [DT]|Egypt’s Proxy Domestic Terrorists [EPDT]: Ethiopians elected Abiy’s Government in an on-site scrutiny by AU/EU/UN/US. It’s up to Ethiopians to remove or keep Abiy! Armed insurrection to topple elected governments is DT. In Ethiopia, DT is being fuelled by Former Regimes’ Beneficiaries [FRB] & EPDT [EPLF/ELF | TPLF/TDF | OLF-IFL’O | ‘Fanno’ (Misnomer)]. Ethiopia’s Defense Forces are doing their best in containing the Ethiopia-Destabilizing FRB, EPDT, etc.
4). Former & Present Regimes: The Monarchy failed to airdrop even 100g [10¢] bread for famine victims and made Ethiopia “World’s Poster Child of Poverty & Famine.” The Derg accelerated the downward spiral by resorting to Socialism/repression/killing. Then, Egypt’s Proxy Thugs [TPLF| EPLF/ELF] invaded/occupied/looted Ethiopia [1991-1998]. When TPLF fled to Tigray [2018], Ethiopians elected Abiy’s Party & Abiy became PM. Abiy turned Ethiopia in to “World’s Poster Child of Prosperity & Greenery.” Go & See Abiy’s Ethiopia! Abiy is an Ethiopian Ethiopians should be proud of & support!
Ethiopia’s National Dialogue Commission is a hoax. ENDC is another tool that Abiy Ahmed is using to extend the life of the EPRDF – PP ethnocentric political system. The EPRDF – PP ethnocentric political system is at its peak and must be replaced with a new system, or it will regress and causes destruction. Abiy’s delusional grandeur is already causing the death of millions of Amharas. What can solve Ethiopia’s problem is a new constitution. The regime of Abiy Ahmed must be replaced with a transitional government. The primary mission of the transitional government is to prepare a new constitution for Ethiopia. Ethiopia needs a federal system similar to that of the USA. The transitional government must request economic and military assistance from the USA. If agreed, the USA need to send American troops as advisors to assist the transitional government. The existing Police force must continue its duties during and after the transitional government. Ethiopia’s National Defense Forces must be replaced. Bloodshed cannot buy loyalty.
– In the new constitution, Ethiopia must be governed by the principles of human rights.
– The new constitution must guarantee justice, human rights, civil rights, and private ownership of land.
– In the new constitution, Ethiopia needs to be restructured and modeled after the USA federal system.
– In the new constitution, member states to the new Ethiopian federation must use Amharic and their local language equally without any discrimination and limitations as working languages of their state.
– In the new constitution, Ethnic based political organizations must be prohibited by law.
– In the new constitution, Oromo and Tigrian politicians must be prohibited by law from participating in any separatist activities globally.
– The new constitution must guarantee private ownership of land.