By Selam Adefiris
Abiy made the biggest mistake of his leadership when he sent the army to the Amhara region almost two years ago. He and his military generals intended to disarm the forces there in only two weeks, and now, after two years, Fano has become a more powerful and formidable force in the Horn of Africa, while Abiy and his military have become weaker and more fragile by every measure. Hence, they are engaged in continuous drama and fabrication just to appear strong and to give the impression that they are in control of the situation. The prime minister devised a sole strategy to survive – UNDERMINING FANO. First, let us speak out the facts.
Bitterly defeated by Fano
Since Abiy foolishly launched the military operation against the people of the Amhara region, tens of thousands of military personnel have either perished or been wounded, and many more have been displaced. Only a handful of main Fano leaders died, while dozens of military generals, colonels, and higher officials from the Abiy side have been destroyed in just two years.
Fano’s Military might have increased immensely
Fano armed itself with tens of thousands of weapons of different kinds and ammunition in these two years. When Abiy’s faulty military operation in the region began, the Fano forces had few weapons, but at this time, most Fano forces, including the farmers in the area, are now equipped with modern and heavy weapons. Before this conflict, most of the farmers in the region owned small rifles, which were old types; now they are talking about sophisticated weapons. Even in some places, they have started to make their heavy weapons. Now, the business in the region includes heavy artillery and weapon systems. Their knowledge and exposure to technology increased, thanks to Abiy and his generals. They were not supposed to step foot in the complex Amhara region, which is naturally high land and has very complex terrain giving advantage to the people living there for centuries.
Fano the new potential Military force of the country
When it comes to the number of Fano forces across the Amhara region, the number now exceeds many times that of Abiy’s army. In fact, one can say that there is a new military force in the Amhara region, in the name of Fano forces, that is built on a higher moral ground and mission than the so-called Abiy military force. In places where Fano forces are in control, in almost 80% of the Amhara region, the rule of law and order has returned to where it was before this conflict. However, in areas where Abiy’s command forces are present, there are daily atrocities of various kinds committed against civilians, women, and children in broad daylight. This means the army has been reduced to a’ terrorist’ level by terrorizing and killing civilians, women, and children using drones and heavy artillery, as it controls the nation’s banks and tanks. During the Derg and TPLF rebels’ fight, the rebels were highly disciplined fighters who later constituted the army of the TPLF-led regime for three decades. Now, a new military is in the making or has already been formed to defend the rule of law and create stability and sustainability across the Horn of Africa. The international community has understood this equation. Abiy and his commanders know this very well. This is at the heart of the matter. What, then, should Abiy and his gangs do?
The main strategy against Fano forces: UNDERMINE!
Abiy and his gangs know that things are getting out of control. They cannot lead a country without the full participation of the Amhara people, the Oromo, the Tigray, the Somali, the Afar, and so on. Especially, the Amhara people living in the mountains and fertile parts of the country, providing stability and sustainability, should be with him. Otherwise, his government is shaky. If a riot starts in Addis, he will be gone in only one week. If war breaks out with any neighboring country, he will be easily defeated. So what options does this power maniac have? To use media, social media, and the digital front as a weapon to undermine Fano forces. To dominate the narrative, he produces dramas: port diplomacy drama, economic drama, ethnic conflict drama, speaking lies in parliament, cycling in cities to take pictures and videos, and many other small and big dramas. The tens of thousands in his digital army use that as content to share on all fronts of social media.
They continuously say Fano has disappeared, they are weak, they are divided in regions, they cannot be a meaningful force, and so on. Perception is everything. Abiy is playing with fire. He is deceiving himself and others, as if the Fano forces are just small rebels, almost gone or will disappear soon everywhere. But the hard truth is that Fano is becoming a large, formidable force in the country and in the region. While Abiy prepared to report to the parliament and to the international community that he was cycling in Bahir Dar city, the capital of the Amhara region, as a show-off that he is in control using picture diplomacy, Fano quietly prepared a unified attack across the Amhara region – OPERATION UNITY. Boom! In only three days, they devastated many areas and amassed a lot of weaponry. Now, the military has come out and said General Migbe, a senior TPLF military leader, is coordinating this front. Both the General and the Fano forces have denied it. One time he will say Eritrea is helping Fano, and now he is saying, operation unity of Fano in these days is led by General MIgbe. Why such a blatant lie? The answer is simple. The narrative that “Fano is weak; Fano cannot be united; Fano has become nothing,” and so on, is dismantled in just a few days when they come out and amass victory easily. Hence, they want to deflect the victory of Fano forces as a victory for one military General from TPLF.
Conclusion
Abiy knows that he cannot defeat Fano. He used the money to buy some. He used drones to kill the main leaders of Fano. He tried to divide Fano forces using different schemes. Nothing has worked. The more he tries to undermine Fano, the stronger it becomes. By now, Abiy should be sitting and cursing the day he decided to send his army to the Amhara region. He actually is in life support, in political terms. His hands are now soaked with a lot of blood from Welega in the Oromia region, Tigray, and the Amhara region. He has become the curse of the country. That is his legacy. He knows that the image he is trying to build now will be washed out of the history books so quickly. He has lost his way.
What he can do is admit that he has made mistakes and give up power to others. This might not happen since he is stubborn and loves power. He better leave the country by finding a good arrangement like Mengistu Hailemariam. The international community, other countries, and people who love peace should negotiate to remove this man from power. Even the army can restore its dignity by disobeying this power mania before he destroys the country even more by instigating a huge ethnic conflict. Somebody should stop him.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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