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Mohammed A. Ahmed (Cagaweyne)
Yes, if it genuinely decides to address the security threat posed by the group to both Somalia and Ethiopia.
The relentless menace of Al-Shabaab looms ominously over the Horn of Africa, with Somalia at the heart of this upheaval. Ethiopia, sharing an extensive and vulnerable border with Somalia, is keenly aware that the collapse of Somalia to Al-Shabaab would spell disaster for its own security. The pressing question is: can Ethiopia, with its formidable military prowess, aid Somalia in vanquishing this formidable adversary? Despite grappling with its own security dilemmas and internal armed opposition, Ethiopia possesses the potential to forge a robust alliance with Somalia. If both nations prioritize the eradication of Al-Shabaab and transcend their national security differences, they can extinguish the flames of conflict threatening to engulf the entire region.
Should Al-Shabaab seize control of Somalia, Ethiopia would undoubtedly be the next target. The group’s expansionist ideology and history of cross-border incursions highlight the critical need for Ethiopia to act decisively. Ethiopia’s security is inextricably linked to Somalia’s stability. Therefore, Ethiopia’s engagement is not merely an act of regional solidarity but a strategic imperative. Although the Somali Regional State has demonstrated resilience in countering the threat posed by Al-Shabaab, the current tranquility may be fleeting if a comprehensive military strategy, coupled with robust intelligence sharing, is not established with the Somali Federal Government. This collaboration is essential to confront a formidable adversary that possesses the patience and strategy to conquer one state at a time.
The Somali government is beset by inexperience and a lack of cohesive leadership, severely undermining its capacity to sustain an effective campaign against Al-Shabaab. The glaring absence of a unified belief system within the government ranks results in ephemeral military offensives that fail to yield lasting outcomes. Al-Shabaab astutely recognizes that as long as Somali leaders prioritize personal gains over national security, their rhetoric will remain hollow, and their military endeavors profit-driven. This strategic misalignment allows Al-Shabaab to exploit the government’s vulnerabilities, ensuring their continued dominance and the perpetuation of regional instability.
The recent Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Somaliland and Ethiopia has introduced a new layer of complexity to the already volatile security landscape in the Horn of Africa. This agreement has ignited a war of words between Somalia and Ethiopia, potentially opening another front in an already fraught region. The Somali government must navigate this diplomatic rift with caution to avoid exacerbating its security challenges.
Ethiopia, on the other hand, must meticulously reassess its national security priorities. It is imperative that Ethiopia acknowledges the interlinked nature of its security with that of Somalia. Any misunderstandings between these two brotherly nations must be set aside to focus on the paramount mission: defeating Al-Shabaab. All other concerns are secondary to this critical objective. The quest for regional stability and access to strategic maritime gateways will remain unattainable as long as Al-Shabaab continues to operate within Somalia and potentially seeks to extend its influence into Ethiopia under the guise of defending Somalia’s sovereignty from perceived Ethiopian aggression.
Al-Shabaab’s recent military setbacks, such as the debacle in Jubaland, have not diminished its unyielding resolve. The group’s heinous massacre in Liido, Mogadishu, served as a grim reminder to the Federal Government of Somalia that Al-Shabaab remains an indomitable and persistent threat, resolute in its mission to seize control, regardless of the time it takes. The Somali populace, exhausted by the relentless terror and instability inflicted by Al-Shabaab, is prepared to rally behind any institution, government, or international campaign that promises to eradicate this scourge. This includes support for Ethiopian efforts, provided that recent provocations between the two nations are amicably resolved. Ethiopia possesses a significant asset in Somalia, not only through military support but also through crucial intelligence capabilities, which can be instrumental in the mission to curb the Al-Shabaab threat. This threat was recently exacerbated by a war of words that played into Al-Shabaab’s hands.
Al-Shabaab’s continued relevance is sustained by its ability to recruit young, impoverished individuals. The Somali government’s intelligence apparatus is compromised and infiltrated by Al Shabaab operatives, ensuring a steady flow of information to the terror group. This infiltration severely hampers the government’s ability to purge its military and intelligence agencies of these elements, perpetuating a vicious cycle of instability and insecurity.
To effectively assist Somalia, Ethiopia must commit to a comprehensive strategy that addresses the root causes of instability. This includes bolstering Somalia’s military capabilities, enhancing intelligence cooperation, and supporting socio-economic development to undermine Al-Shabaab’s recruitment efforts. Moreover, Ethiopia must collaborate closely with regional and international partners to ensure a coordinated and sustained effort against the terror group. Although Eritrea provides military assistance to the Somali Government and likely strengthens its alliance with them, Somalia shares a border with Ethiopia, not Eritrea – where the terror group poses a threat to both nations. Many ostensibly astute individuals appear to be self-centered, prioritizing their tribe or clan and material possessions, and may fail to recognize the real threat at home, where future generations are at risk. The prospect of prosperity is bleak. Somalia could lose its entire territory to an enemy that disregards borders or ethnicity, a brutal force that threatens humanity. Fighting against such a force with empty rhetoric based on historical context will neither defend the nation nor halt the terror group.
Recent victories in Jubaland may be short-lived if international and neighboring countries do not provide financial and military support for these efforts. The massacre in Liido was orchestrated by the terror group to alleviate the pressure on them, as they felt threatened by recent military successes in Jubaland. This act of brutality was intended to shift the narrative from their defeat in that region to their resolve to target all Somalis if perceived as weak. For instance, many soldiers involved in that mission in Jubaland were either trained in Ethiopia or were former armed opposition members of the ONLF who signed a peace accord with the Ethiopian Federal Government in the Ogaden Region. This collaboration could be vital for both countries to build robust forces capable of confronting the terror group before they become susceptible to being co-opted by Al-Shabaab, whose strategy has proven to be solid and gaining momentum.
Ethiopia can strategically leverage support from the Somali Region, one of the regions of the Ethiopian Federation, an area closely monitored by Al-Shabaab. Initially, Al-Shabaab perceived Ethiopia as vulnerable due to its intense internal conflicts. However, the regional special forces and
the Ethiopian Federal Defense Forces delivered a resounding response, thwarting these attempts with remarkable military prowess. Despite these successes, the threat remains ever-present. Ethiopia has the opportunity to fortify these forces within the national army, enhancing their capabilities. Additionally, Ethiopia can assist Somalia by deploying these valiant warriors who understand the local language and embody a unique culture of heroism. These defenders are renowned for their unwavering commitment to protecting their territory from any perceived enemy, including Al-Shabaab.
In conclusion, Ethiopia has the potential to play a pivotal role in defeating Al-Shabaab, but this requires a genuine and sustained commitment to addressing the multifaceted security threats in the region. The stability of both nations hinges on their ability to collaborate and confront this common enemy with unwavering resolve.
Mohammed A. Ahmed (Cagaweyne) can be reached via phone : +251900644648
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For the Ethiopian people it is the Abiy Government which is the immediate existential threat than Al-Shabaab so this article is dead on arrival for the people of Ethiopia. Why not the Somalia Government resolve its issues with Al-Shabaab through negotiation. We all know how the group is created and became strong.
The fact that Al-Shabaab is gaining strength and threatening the current Somali government is seen as a positive development for Ethiopians who value freedom. If Al-Shabaab gains a foothold in Somalia, the Ogaden region could become a target. However, this is a matter for the Oroo prosperity party to address. Let them do the fighting!!!