By Abel Tewodros
As Ethiopia heads toward its seventh national election in June 2026, a familiar question resurfaces: will the government release political prisoners as an election-year gesture, only to resume repression once ballots are cast?
Detention Without Trial
For years, Ethiopian authorities have silenced critics through detention without trial. Journalists, opposition politicians, human rights defenders, academics, and ordinary citizens have been jailed for speaking against government policies, often languishing for months or years without court hearings. Their “crime” is frequently nothing more than exercising freedom of speech.
The Committee to Protect Journalists reports that at least 54 journalists and media workers fled Ethiopia since 2020, while 30 have been imprisoned since 2018. Human Rights Watch documented thousands detained in Amhara between September and October 2024, including judges and academics. Opposition parties say hundreds of their offices have been illegally closed nationwide.
The 2018 Promise and Its Collapse
This repression contrasts sharply with the optimism of 2018, when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office. He released thousands of political prisoners, welcomed exiled opposition groups, and pledged transparency. More than 6,000 detainees were freed, a move celebrated internationally as the dawn of democratic transformation.
But the reform period proved short-lived. Within months, critics were re-arrested, dissent suppressed, and anti-terrorism laws weaponized against opposition voices. The 2021 elections, conducted amid conflict and mass detentions, marked the end of reform and the return to authoritarian governance.
Symbolic Gestures Before Elections
Ethiopia has seen this pattern before: symbolic gestures ahead of elections, followed by renewed repression. Governments release high-profile prisoners, accelerate condominium housing handovers, and showcase infrastructure projects. These headline-grabbing announcements project openness and progress but fade once electoral attention subsides, leaving censorship and centralized power intact.
For more than three decades, elections have been widely criticized as rigged. Yet these tactics create favorable conditions for the ruling party, manipulating both domestic voters and international observers.
A Calculation of Political Advantage
The emerging strategy is clear: arrest critics without due process, restrict freedoms, marginalize opposition, then release select prisoners before elections to signal reform while repression continues.
This approach serves multiple purposes. It demonstrates “mercy” to families of detainees, projects democratic openness abroad, reinforces a narrative of stability through development programs, and preserves the option of renewed arrests once scrutiny diminishes.
Opposition parties have not missed the pattern. In November 2025, a coalition demanded “the immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners,” along with reopening of offices and neutrality of security forces during campaigning.
Reform or Repeat?
As the 2026 election approaches, Ethiopia faces a crossroads. Will this cycle mark genuine reform respect for free speech, judicial independence, and due process, or another round of political theater designed to placate audiences at home and abroad?
Releasing prisoners without addressing the causes of detention risks turning justice into a campaign tool. True reform requires ending arbitrary arrests, restoring judicial independence, and guaranteeing freedom of expression for all citizens, regardless of political affiliation.
Absent substantive institutional change, pre-election gestures remain superficial, failing to halt the erosion of democratic norms. Whether the coming months bring real change or symbolic performances will test the government’s commitment to democracy. Without consistent respect for civil liberties, such gestures will be seen as empty performances rather than credible steps toward accountability.
Abel Tewodros can be reached at : abeltewodrosarticles@gmail.com
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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