Elections held amid active wars, systematic repression, and the exclusion of credible opposition cannot reflect the will of the Ethiopian people
AMHARA DIASPORA GLOBAL FORUM
Press Release
The Amhara Diaspora Global Forum calls upon the international community to withhold recognition of Ethiopia’s national elections scheduled for 1 June 2026. The Forum expresses grave concern that these elections are being conducted not as a genuine democratic exercise, but as a procedural instrument to confer legitimacy on the incumbent regime in the absence of political competition, civic freedom, or institutional independence. These elections cannot produce a legitimate outcome. The international community must not lend its credibility to a process that has none of its own.
An Election Without Democratic Preconditions
Ethiopia enters the 2026 election cycle under conditions antithetical to democratic competition. The ruling party exercises absolute dominance over all branches of the state; opposition leaders have been imprisoned, forced into exile, or administratively barred from participation; and no credible political formation has been permitted to organize, campaign, or contest the process.
The freedoms essential to democratic participation have equally been denied: freedom of assembly has been criminalized; journalists face systematic arrest and censorship, with a significant number currently imprisoned; and internet shutdowns and digital surveillance are routinely deployed as instruments of political control.
The National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) lacks operational independence, public trust, and access to more than two-thirds of the country’s population and is widely regarded as an instrument of the ruling party. Its claim of 50 million registered voters is unverifiable and contradicted by conditions on the ground.
Elections Under Active Armed Conflict
Active armed conflicts across multiple regions directly prevent universal suffrage and free electoral participation:
– In the Amhara Region, federal forces are engaged in sustained military operations against the Amhara Fano National Movement (AFNM). An estimated 80 percent of the region is under AFNM control and inaccessible to electoral administration.
– In Oromia, hostilities between federal forces and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) continue unabated, with significant civilian displacement and movement restrictions.
– In Tigray, the post-conflict environment remains fragile and contested. The region has been totally excluded from the country’s governance institutions, including the federal parliament, and cannot take part in the elections.
Conducting elections under these conditions disenfranchises more than two-thirds of Ethiopia’s population. The Forum recalls that international electoral standards — including those of the
African Union and the United Nations — explicitly preclude validation of elections held amid active conflict and mass disenfranchisement.
Post-Election Risks
The Forum cautions that international recognition of the electoral outcome would carry severe consequences:
– Political and security deterioration: the government is expected to treat recognition as a mandate to expand emergency powers, intensify military operations particularly in Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray regions, and intensify suppression of opposition, independent media, and civil society.
– Economic deterioration — including high inflation, debt distress, declining foreign investment, and suspended donor support — will deepen, compounding humanitarian need and foreclosing prospects for stabilization.
– Entrenchment of armed resistance: the absence of political alternatives will drive the expansion of armed movements and heighten the risk of state fragmentation.
– Regional destabilization: the government may seek to externalize its internal crisis through direct military action that further destabilizes the Horn of Africa.
The Forum urges the international community to prepare contingency frameworks for a potentially increasing political volatility and a rapid, non-linear change.
Calls upon the International Community
The Amhara Diaspora Global Forum calls upon the international community to:
– Withhold recognition of the June 1, 2026, electoral outcome and refrain from any statement or action that confers legitimacy upon this process.
– Issue public statements accurately characterizing the conditions — including active conflict, the imprisonment of political figures, and the exclusion of credible opposition — under which these elections are being held.
– Demand the immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners, including journalists, opposition leaders, and civil society representatives.
– Insist upon full compliance with international humanitarian law and unimpeded humanitarian access to all conflict-affected populations.
– Support credible accountability mechanisms for atrocities committed in the course of Ethiopia’s internal conflicts, consistent with international legal obligations.
– Condition future diplomatic and financial engagement upon concrete, verifiable progress toward political openness, cessation of hostilities, and civilian protection.
– Actively promote inclusive, internationally mediated dialogue as the only sustainable pathway to durable peace and legitimate governance in Ethiopia.
The Amhara Diaspora Global Forum reaffirms its unwavering commitment to a peaceful, democratic, and united Ethiopia — one in which the rights and aspirations of all its peoples are protected under the rule of law. The Forum calls upon the international community to stand on the right side of history at this critical juncture.
About the Amhara Diaspora Global Forum
The Amhara Diaspora Global Forum is a non-profit organization with a global membership committed to the promotion of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law in Ethiopia. The Forum engages diplomatic missions, multilateral bodies, and international media to advocate for peaceful, inclusive political solutions to Ethiopia’s ongoing crises.
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