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No reason for war with Eritrea, Ethiopians need to reject any move in that direction  

Eritrea Ethiopia War
Source : FutureAfrica

borkena 
Editorial 

The threat of a possible new war between Eritrea and Ethiopia became a point of discussion, sometime last week, among a considerable number of Ethiopian news outlets. A conversation about it has been observed among Ethiopian activists on Social media platforms. 

The fear is predicated on the development that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has mobilized and deployed a huge number of Ethiopian Defense Forces along Wolkait – an area that is historically part of Gonder.  Anchor Media reported about it last week citing a source from the area.

The Eritrean government, as always, did not say anything about it. The Ethiopian government did not deny or explain why the extensive deployment of forces is needed. The border threat from Sudan does not seem to be a factor in the decision given the fact that the country itself is in a destructive civil war much of which is being waged near the capital Khartoum. Even if that was the case, the deployment could have been mainly in Humera rather than Wolkait. 

The United States government has portrayed  Wolkait as part of Tigray – as seen in many of the statements that the State Department issued during the course of the two-year war between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Federal government under Abiy Ahmed. It should be recalled that it was the TPLF that triggered the war with the Federal government of Ethiopia when it suddenly attacked the Northern Command of the Ethiopian Defense Force. At the time, the government needed support from the Eritrean government to rescue the remaining members of the Northern Defense Force and thousands of Ethiopian soldiers crossed to Eritrea to recover and reorganize. According to official sources from Eritrea, as many as 3000 Ethiopian soldiers were massacred by the TPLF in unsuspecting circumstances.  In a video footage that was released last week, the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Defense Force, General Abebaw Tadesse, was seen saying that Ethiopian and Eritrean forces have fought alongside and that they spilled their blood together to reverse the attack from the TPLF.  

On the ground, there does not seem to be a  reason – particularly national interest, security issue, or others – for the two countries to go to war. The state of no war-no peace situation that existed for over two decades ended in July 2018 when Abiy Ahmed traveled to Asmara. He is on record that his government accepts the ruling from the Boundary Commission on the issue of Bademe. 

However, there are unconfirmed rumors that Abiy Ahmed’s government could attempt to mobilize by playing  Asab (access to the sea) card. Reports from DW Amharic that were published a few days ago seem to suggest that dissident groups from Eritrea are mobilized as ethnic Afar aspiring for their own destiny.  From conversations among Ethiopians that made it to social media platforms including YouTube, it is clear that Ethiopians ( especially in the Amhara region of Ethiopia) will not support the war project with Eritrea. They rather see Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government as a sort of existential threat to Ethiopia. 

In the post-Pretoria agreement, Abiy Ahmed and TPLF leaders appeared to have formed what looks like a political and military alliance whose goal is puzzling. The United States has been an influential factor in bringing the TPLF back to Ethiopian body politics.  

Obviously, the United States (and its allies) has a geo-political interest in the region and the TPLF has always been a trusted partner to the United States – something that explains that campaign to give TPLF a political and diplomatic cover during the war that claimed over 1 million lives. 

Abiy Ahmed’s government is not different from TPLF on the issue of making Ethiopia a vassal state to the United States and its allies. It has been demonstrated, among other,  in the way it handled the war with TPLF including the release of TPLF leaders (without forgetting disastrous economic decisions). If his government is contemplating war with Eritrea, it is sure to be part of the U.S. regime change agenda in Eritrea. If the war happens, it is going to be a destructive one in view of what looks like the inevitable involvement of great powers. That is why Ethiopians need to reject any move for war against Eritrea. Activists and political leaders should mobilize if the Abiy Ahmed regime is indeed moving along that destructive path.

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9 COMMENTS

  1. QUOTE: “…Ethiopians need to reject any move for war against Eritrea. Activists and political leaders should mobilize if the Abiy Ahmed regime is indeed moving along that destructive path.”UNQUOTE

    Humble Reaction, 3 July 2023
    ha). SANE ADVICE.

    hu.) Expressing my opinion, I don’ t believe Aby Ahmed will move toward the direction to attack Eritrean People >>> not
    out of fear, but out of WISDOM.

    he). Indeed, SANITY BEGETS WISDOM

  2. Now there is a need to re-organize the Tigray defence force with a new and young leadership. The Tigray forces which will be stronger and well led will overthrow the Eritrean dictator and his proxy Abiy Ahmed. and in the end regain Tigray sovereign lands. Then it will be safer and right for Tigray to formally declare its long cherished independence.

  3. Can’t discount a scenario where Abiy creates pretext to start war on Eritrea.

    1. He wants to start war & play the nationalist sentiment to bolster his dwindled popularity & credibility. #Assab??]
    2. Wants to cut the #Wolkait natural bridge that links Amhara Region with Eritrea by handing Wolkait over to Tigray. Part of #Pretoria. Also to deny Amhara opposition from getting supplies via Eritrea.
    3. It’s part of the #US dictated #Pretoria pact to reinstate #TPLF in its arrogant glory and to keep the #TPLF #Eritrea animosity alive.
    4. US still on its failed dream of toppling #Isaias
    3. Recent agreement between #China & Eritrea for deeper partnership. #Isaias’s visit to #SaudiArabia, #UAE to strengthening ties & form partnership for Red Sea security worrying US. New World Order sentiment creeping into Africa, the Horn & Red Sea.

  4. This won’t surprise anyone because the politics and personality of dictatorship often thrives with fabricated crises — one after another . These crises bear no benefits whatsoever for the public interest except massive destruction and human death but they give authoritarians quasi legitimacy and prolongs their rule as masses cowed and forced to choose between ever present security danger dilemma versus other pressing politico and socio-economic issues such as demanding the government an electoral process, democracy, other political reforms, accountability , respect of human rights , etc. As frightening and destructive as plot seems, surely it presents itself a heck of opportunity not to be missed easily by the wannabe despotic like Abiy .

  5. It would be the height of madness at this point to go to war against Eritrea. Ethiopia is still in turmoil with factionalist movements roaming the country, and has come out of the war very much diminished. To what end and for what good is this war? Ethiopia has functioned well without Assab for over three decades. That cannot be the reason. The TPLF will gladly take the opportunity to exact revenge against Isaias for his invaluable help in ending the TPLF war. If Abiy plans to join them , he will not only appear duplicitous, but will end up creating one more enemy for Ethiopia. However, I would not be surprised if Abiy takes such a mover since he has shown time and again taking adventurous decisions.

  6. Editorial,

    What led you to be so concerned about a possible war between Eritrea and Ethiopia? Have you received news from a reliable source about it? Is your website owned by those who are Eritreans? Someone about 6 months ago told me you are not an Ethiopian or Ethiopians. They told me that you picked a name of a river in Northern Ethiopia for this website. Is that true? It does not matter to me but we should know if it is true or not.

  7. It was obvious and straight forward that the Ethiopian government will change their face after the defeat of the TPLF regime. morover, inorder the Abiys government to continues began to claim over Asseb. Through out history the Amhara people had and still have the hunger of controlling Assab. so, Abiy took this as a pretext to sustain in power. further due to the pressure of USA that Abiy launched a fake proposal to the Ethiopian people. This will escalate the tension in the Horn of Africa and particular between Eritrea and Ethiopia if they moved in to war. the war will not not be simple it will take thousands of people, so the Ethiopian government must undo its claims over Asssb.

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