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HomeOpinionThe ENDF’s Tactical Halt Outside Of Tigray Is Actually Highly Strategic (Andrew...

The ENDF’s Tactical Halt Outside Of Tigray Is Actually Highly Strategic (Andrew Korybko)

Ethiopian forces marching to the north in December 2020 after TPLF attacked Northern Command of ENDF (Photo : file/FDEDF)

By Andrew Korybko
Follow him on Twitter : @AKorybko

The ENDF’s successful completion of its “National Unity in Diversity” operation has resulted in the armed forces deciding to remain outside of the Tigray Region for the time being. Although many observers consider this to have been done for tactical reasons, it’s actually highly strategic. Government Communication Service Minister Legesse Tulu said that the authorities learned about a false flag “genocide” plot by the TPLF and its international allies to implicate the ENDF in war crimes. 

According to the information that was revealed, they’ve already transported a large number of their terrorists who were killed during the government’s liberation counteroffensive in the Afar and Amhara Regions to mass graves in their home region. Upon the ENDF’s entrance into Tigray, the TPLF plans to accuse it of “genocide” there and has coordinated this information warfare provocation with foreign media who’ve already agreed to dutifully play along. 

By wisely avoiding this trap, the ENDF ensures that it’ll fail. There will be no revival of the regularly debunked “genocide” claims, including through false flag plots. This throws a wrench in the US-led West’s to artificially manufacture another pretext for justifying the next phase of their preplanned pressure campaign against Ethiopia. By denying them this, any forthcoming moves in that direction will be even less credible than all their prior ones, which further erodes the US-led West’s reputation. 

The ENDF won’t just be sitting around, however, since they’re hard at work helping the liberated regions recover from the TPLF’s occupation. All sorts of war crimes were committed during this time and entire communities were devastated by these atrocities. The authorities will help the victims while also exposing the extent of the TPLF’s terrorism there. Coupled with their foiling of the US-led West’s information warfare provocation, this will serve to decisively reshape global perceptions of the conflict.

There’s another strategic element to the ENDF’s tactical halt outside of Tigray, and that’s the government’s planned national dialogue with all peaceful forces in the country. To be clear, this doesn’t concern terrorist groups like the TPLF and its allies, who are unable to participate in this process. They’ve proven that they’re threats to peace, have committed war crimes, and thus aren’t legitimate stakeholders in the country’s future. 

These strategic dynamics are putting immense pressure on the TPLF. They’re contained to Tigray, whose residents will now have to hold them accountable for the disastrous war that was waged in their name. The terrorist group has eschewed responsibility for the conflict and all of its consequences, but their crushing defeat on the battlefield and the ENDF’s tactical halt outside of their home region means that the TPLF has to answer to the locals and finally provide for their most basic humanitarian needs.

Up until this point, the group has weaponized international aid shipments and even stolen many of the UN trucks that were used to deliver supplies. This was done to manipulate the international media into claiming that the ENDF was deliberately starving the residents of that region. That false information warfare narrative now has no basis whatsoever upon which to be advanced. In fact, it’s becoming abundantly clear that the aforementioned activities are yet another of the TPLF’s many war crimes. 

The best-case scenario would be for the TPLF to disarm, demobilize, hand over those of its members who committed war crimes so that they can face the justice that they deserve, and seek to reintegrate the rest of their members into their local society with time. That, however, is unlikely to happen since the TPLF’s agenda is to destroy Ethiopia with the full support of their international patrons if they can’t return to power. 

Nevertheless, a window of opportunity is opening – however narrow it might be – for Tigrayans to peacefully resist the terrorist group that committed all sorts of atrocities in their name. It’s predicted that the region’s humanitarian pressures might further intensify since the TPLF is incapable of effective governance and has a track record of weaponizing aid shipments. This might seek to motivate responsible residents to demand accountability and even possibly push back against the group. 

As was earlier mentioned, Ethiopia’s planned national dialogue is open to all peaceful members of society, especially those Tigrayans that never joined the TPLF nor supported its terrorist war against their diverse compatriots in the neighboring Afar and Amahra Regions. The Tigrayan people are also victims of the TPLF, including due to the group’s brainwashing that misled some of them, which observers should always keep in mind.

The participation of peaceful Tigrayans in the planned national dialogue won’t just be “token” like the TPLF’s foreign media allies will predictably claim, but substantive for the exact same reason that was mentioned above. This will also show how sincere the authorities are about the processes’ inclusivity, which in turn is yet another nail in the coffin of the US-led West’s information warfare against them. More and more, Ethiopia is exposing the US-led West’s many falsehoods. 

To recap, the ENDF’s tactical halt serves the strategic goals of evading the TPLF’s false flag “genocide” trap in Tigray; prompting that region’s residents to hold the terrorist group accountable; enabling the authorities to focus on helping the liberated regions recover from the terrorists’ occupation; and facilitating the planned national dialogue that will also include peaceful Tigrayans. All of this further discredits the TPLF and their allies, which in turn enhances Ethiopia’s international credibility. 

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10 COMMENTS

  1. Stopping the gain, high moral and the momentum is not strategic. Genocide on Amhara must end and TPLF is responsible for the Genocide!!

    It is giving the loser an opportunity to breath, organize and to start a new war just like it did in the past. It also prolongs the war and human sufferings. Tigrayan TPLF murderers and rapists do not know decency and living in peace or have the capability to understand living as civilized humans. They worship power to repress and loot money as they can that they hooked to.
    Regardless how much Egypt, Sudan or White media and paid TPLF activists trying hard to resuscitate TPLF, TPLF criminals have no support in Ethiopia and Ethiopians are ready to bury TPLF and go on with a new life in peace. Keep the momentum and Finish the War!!!
    Let TPLF victims return back to their peaceful lives although will never be able bring back those precious families lives TPLF in cold blood murdered. Rebuild the destroyed places and services and hold TPLF responsible to pay for the devastation and massacre they caused.
    The loot is loaded to and stashed around in various places in Tigary and let Amharas and Afars fighters and people collect their stolen wealth.

  2. Although we can see that there is disagreement and discontent among Tigrayans, I don’t understand how ordinary Tigrayans are expected to stand up against the TPLF without some kind of backing from outside: TPLF will surely murder anyone they consider a “traitor”. Is it fair to leave Tigrayans in the hands of the TPLF?

    • Tigres must rise up to their number one enemy that TPLF has been/is. No Ethiopian blood should be spilt for them anymore (already 100,000 perished in their instigated war against Eritrea). No more! They should feed and protect themselves from hunger too.

  3. The brightest minds could give birth to such extraordinary reasons like this to help ENDF and fanos from further destruction. They know TDF will destroy fano and ENDF terrorists if they re-enter Tigray, land of lions.

  4. The fascist TPLF forces have commenced attacks on the Afar region and these attacks could be tactics to invite the Ethiopian forces into Tigray and accuse them of Genocide. The continuation of such provocative attacks do not have any or little military significance but the TPLF will use them for its political and diplomatic wars. As the Tigrayan forces have suffered heavy losses and the human resources of the TPLF to sustain wars are being depleted, the TPLF leaders could face disobedience or even a rebellion in Tigray. Thus, it is important for the TPLF to beat war drums and deflect the attention of `Tegaru` to avoid these scenarios. But the economic and social collapse and crises the `Tegaru` are facing will deepen and possibly result in the end of the TPLF rule in Tigray. As the poorest region ,most dependent on the federal government, Tigray is the most vulnerable one. On the diplomatic front, through continuing the war the TPLF hopes its US and western allies will step up the pressure on the Abiy Ahemd government. It is now realistic to believe that the US and other western powers who worked behind the stage for regime change in Ethiopia using the TPLF as the main proxy have given up their plan.

  5. Good discussions and various viewpoints are raised here.These are all healthy, important and the bedrocks of democratic governance. Compare these discussions with the nonsense, ethno-fascistic shouting of TPLF sycophants. Over there, dissent is not allowed for a second. Everyone must be in line and bow down to the one fairy tale of the TPLF looters. Now having said all that, we must emphasize and push PM Abiy to recognize the responsibilities that fall on his shoulders day in day out. The PM was elected to office by an election process considered the most reliable and open, despite the numerous shortcomings, in Ethiopian history. The NEBE, still at its nascent stage, can flourish into a truly independent authority that can validate election results and certify them without any ruling party interference in the long run. These results give the PM the mandate to secure the safety of every Ethiopian citizen in any part of Ethiopia, including Tigrai. There is no equivalence between a terrorist minority group called TPLF with the federal government of Ethiopia. The supreme law of a land in a federal system is one and the same for all regions. TPLF must and will disarm, the perpetrators, planners and organizers in the TPLF camp must be held accountable before the law. There is no exception. Tsdakan, Getachew, Debrestion and similar elk in the group must be charged with insurrection, treason and crimes against humanity. Let’s remember that in most nations the punishment for treason is death /capital punishment. None of these individuals, hereto, should ever hold any public office in any parts of Ethiopia. Why the PM let Ethiopian forces leave Tigray in June, and why the TPLF managed to resurrect and come back to cause so much death and destruction in Afar and Amhara for over 5 months, how and why they infiltrated all the way into Shoa, some over 500 km away from their region needs an answer by the PM. Ethiopians understand that remnants from the previous regime, saboteurs from the OLF wing masquerading as pro Ethiopia PP members, compromised state office holders in the Amhara region are all part of the equation. Irrespective of his or her ethnic background, treason against the state is a crime that must be dealt with immediately.

    As far the non existent Western Tigray is concerned, it has been discussed and repeated ad nauseum that the Wolqait, Tsegedeand etc areas were, are and will continue to be parts of Gonder/Begemeder. The so called western corridor has been aptly described by none other than Dr. Aregawi Berehe, one of the original founders of TPLF, as an illegal annexation of part that did not belong to Tigray in the first place. It was done to attain the pipe dreams of the then Marxist-Leninist zealots and political ideologies, the recent ethno centric fascist and the current murderous juntas 60 plus years illusion and delusion of building “Great Tigray”. Secession from Ethiopia by TPLF ruled Tigrai is a possibility. That should not worry Ethiopians at all. If the majority of Tigreans want that quoting their fanatic Meles words, rest of Ethiopia says “Mengedun cherq yadergelachew”. However, there shall be consequences, those who call themselves non Ethiopians but Tigreans first and last must be ready to be deported from every corners of the new to be Ethiopia Proper. There is a precedent for that too, again from the fanatic Meles’s camp, I.e. “if the government of Ethiopia says we don’t like their eye colors and must leave, they must leave”. This was how Eritreans born and raised in Ethiopia were treated by TPLF. Karma??????

  6. Here is the bottom line. TPLF must disarm, and all perpetrators of the crimes in the Afar and Amhara regions must be held accountable. Any PP member, any Amhara or Afar region sycophant in government leadership opening, suggesting, and condoning escape routes and opportunities for TPLF thugs to get away with crimes against humanity, treason and insurrection against the Ethiopian state will be guilty of abetting and protecting terrorism against citizens of Ethiopia, The moment Abiy tries to gloss over his constitutional duty to protect the lives of every Ethiopian citizen in all corners of the country, will be the beginning of the end of this sad saga in Ethiopian history. The people of Ethiopia en masse, the diaspora in droves in several continents have provided him the support. His election gives him the mandate to bring peace and security. The destruction in Afar and Amhara by TPLF thugs and terrorists must be compensated. Insurrectionists, plotters and financiers of TPLF, and enablers and saboteurs in PP must be exposed and experience the full weight of the long arm of the law. If Abiy fails to abide by his constitutionally mandated duty to uphold the laws of the land, then the legitimacy of his actions, hidden motives and ulterior goals, if any, hidden from the Ethiopian people must be brought out in the open. These untouchable subjects can no longer be kept under the lid. Abiy cannot play pastor and prime minster simultaneously using the political pulpit. Human laws are in place to protect the vulnerable, and the voiceless and to serve justice in the physical world we live in here and now. If as a pastor Abiy wants to preach forgiveness and reconciliation, that can be offered to the criminals such as Debretsion, Getachew , Tsadkan and their psychopathic clique behind prison bars while serving their prison sentence. They can receive daily sermons in their prison cells, and must pay restitution to society for the remainder of their lives. If the law of the land is capital punishment, that too they shall receive, and say good bye and sorry before their journey commences.

  7. tplf should pay for all the material destruction it did on Afar and Amhara people when Ethiopia goes ahead and demonetizes all the salsawi woyane funds in America and Europe. As for the psychological damage – it can only be compensated the old way “an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth” (That’s what the bible says)

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