Sayint Group
This analysis leverages several methodologies which allows for the inclusion of dynamic factors in order to provide a comprehensive 360 degree view of the existential threat facing the Amhara people, EOTC and Ethiopia. It must be known that these 3 pillars are one and the same.
This analysis also assumes that the code names such OLA, TDF etc…. are distractions. We use the proper names TPLF and OLF/PP since these are the actual players.
- Aims to identify the Root Causes, which enables long term solutions
- Considers Realpolitik approaches (strategic national interest) applied to global, regional and domestic powers and their influence
- Evaluate situations pragmatically as compared to ethically, ideally or emotionally
- Understand the factors as they are thereby removing aspirational or wishful belief/faithful devotion
- Avoiding reductional rationale which tends to oversimplify complex affairs
- Applies Game Theory methodology thereby considering key known and undeniable factors
- Strategic goals, principles and the self interests
- Past and present history, ideology, behaviors and motivational factors
- External forces application of undue influence
- Advantages and Disadvantages
WORLDWIDE CIVILIZATIONAL CLASH
The current wars & the impacts to Amhara & Ethiopia
The root cause of the worldwide conflicts and wars:
- The primary reason is the fundamentally irreconcilable, and diametrically opposite world views & the obsession by the collective west to impose complete hegemony on the entire world using it’s proxies. In this case the agents are TPLF and OLF/PP.
The purpose of creating conflict by the collective west via transnational capital:
- It is not to win but to create chaos and extraction of resources upon the blood of human beings. (refer to the US Department of War: National Security Strategy <NSS> 2026)
- Profit, Power, Hegemony
- The 3 main rivals who are in conflict are the American Empire/Zionists against the Russian Federation & Peoples Republic of China.
- China is currently an indirect participant kinetically and direct participant via the economic sanctions.
REALPOLITIK: Alliances of forces in current global politics
Summary of 3 examples of alliances with divergent strategic objectives, which ended in fractured disastrous consequences. In addition foreign intelligence services had a significant role in funding and bringing to power their selected agent in Syria.
Parallels and cautions from these examples can be drawn with the current so-called TIBIBIR of 7 Ethiopian forces.
- Syria: The country is being run by a former terrorist
- Ethnic and sectarian violence is out of control with massacres now common place across the country
- The country is fractured
- External countries like Turkey and Israel have invaded and taken over parts of the country
- Libya
- Has become a failed state in all definitions and continues to disintegrate
- Deepening divide between competing centers of power
- Fragile economic indicators and rising external pressure
- Incidents within the country
- LNA Military Intelligence Chief Killed in Car Bomb
- Drones Strike Libya’s Largest Oil Refinery
- Mass Escape From Jail in Western Libya
- Sudan & South Sudan
Sudan
- Civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF): April 2023
- Leading to widespread violence, humanitarian crises, and significant displacement of civilians
South Sudan
- Collapsing Transition, Militarized Politics, and the Unraveling of the Revitalized Peace Deal
GAME THEORY ANALYSIS
Analyzing a high-stakes alliance—such as a joint coalition between former enemies like the TPLF, OLF and AFNM—requires looking at short-term tactical advantages against deep, long-term risks. Crucially, this analysis focuses exclusively on the strategic position of the TPLF & OLF at this time, examining how it is using its own political power, institutional machinery, and organizational experience rather than looking at other coalition members like Afar or Gumuz movements. Looking purely at political strategy instead of taking sides, these kinds of temporary deals show why “marriages of convenience” can be powerful yet extremely unstable.
Advantage(s)
More Global Attention:
Presenting a large, combined front helps get the attention of foreign governments and global news, making it harder for leaders to dismiss the groups as just small, isolated rebellions.
Tactical Advantages
Short-Term Military Pressure:
By coordinating actions in different regions, these groups force the Abiy regime to split its military, intelligence, and supply resources across multiple areas at once.
Combining Strengths: This setup pairs the TPLF’s decades of organizational experience, trained leaders, and global diplomatic contacts with Amhara forces’ strong local movement and fighters on the ground.
Better Bargaining Power: Working together gives both groups stronger leverage when dealing with peace talks or political negotiations with home and foreign leaders.
Key Strategic Disadvantages and Major Risks
Strategy of false equivalency has been attempted by this TIBIBIR,
This TIBIBIR diminishes the Amhara genocide and equates it with the fabricated claim by TPLF and OLF that they also have an existential threat. These secessionist groups rather have a political conflict with the Abiy Ahmed regime.
Inevitable Clash of Strategic Ideology Political Goals:
The main focus of Amhara groups is on dismantling the ethnic apartheid constitution. This is root cause of the Amhara genocide which began in 1974 with the coup d’etat by the Communist Derg and systemized in 1991 by TPLF/EPRDF. This includes maintaining the unity and territorial integrity of Ethiopia. Subsequently the sovereignty of Ethiopia directly conflicts with the core belief of TPLF & OLF/PP in ethnic-based federalism and the constitutional right to break away (Article 39).
Intentional Collective West Backing overwhelmingly favors TPLF and OLF:
Eventually this so-called alliance/TIBIBIR is likely to fall apart. The TPLF’s strong foreign connections primarily with the US State Department and possible support from neighboring countries (like Eritrea, Sudan, or Egypt) leave less organized and experienced groups at a huge disadvantage.
Risk of Being Pushed Aside:
Because of the TPLF’s powerful networks and long history in power, the Amhara face a huge risk of being used for short-term support and then sidelined later—as was done after the fall of the Derg regime in 1991. The US State Department through the assistant secretary of state for African affairs Herman Cohen designed and carried the TPLF to power by sabotaging and subverting all other groups.
Anger from Supporters and Sudden Collapse:
Since this deal is based only on fighting a common enemy rather than sharing real values, it faces major backlash from the core supporters on both sides, making it likely to fall apart as soon as main goals change. The Amhara people know by experience and intuitively that a deal like this with those who have committed crimes against them is a deep betrayal.
No Real Unified Command or Strategy:
As shown by public statements calling these steps purely administrative, there is no single shared military command, leaving the alliance weak on the ground. The TIBIBR also stated that peace is their strategy during a joint press conference. Peace as a strategy is a cynical and nonsensical goal which shows the shallow and brittle nature of this coalition.
Looking closely at how this alliance works shows that while working together short-term can change things on the battlefield, the massive differences in goals, unequal power, and risk of one side taking over create huge problems down the road. Without a clear, shared plan for what comes next, deals like this usually fall apart or turn back into conflict once initial goals are reached.
GAME THEORY & STRATEGIC ANALYTICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
Minimum Preconditions necessary prior to considering any engagement by Amhara Fano forces with TPLF & OLF
- Ban & bar the Ethnic Apartheid Constitution
- Genocide has been committed on Amhara by TPLF & OLF including their numerous proxies via the EPRDF and PP regimes
- Continuity of Ethiopia in it’s current form as a country with non ethnic regions
- Territorial claims by TPLF and OLF are wholly fabricated and will revert back to pre EPRDF status
The conclusions drawn from the analysis of the factors and application of game theory is that the so-called TIBIBIR alliance is likely headed into a calamity for Amharas if not corrected immediately.
1. Amhara Fano must remove itself from the so-called TIBIBIR and continue to build its own strength internally (it’s only been at most 3 years)
2. Build alternative multi polar alliances with other non western world powers. (Refer to the strategy and tactics of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali)
3. Neutralize and de-legitimize TPLF and OLF as #1 and 2 are implemented.
The short term gain does not outweigh the long term strategic errors and likely chaos for Amharas.
Reasoning:
1. TPLF and OLF strategic goals & self interest
- A fabrication of liberation ideology which in and of itself is self contradictory and baseless
- Establish their own nation
- Full support of ethnic apartheid constitution
- Innate and ideological divergence with Amhara/Ethiopia/EOTC. These differences have been shown to be irreconcilable for 50 yrs plus
2.Patterns of behavior TPLF and OLF
- Based on “them and us” reductionism socially and politically
- Consistent patterns of betrayal and assassinations
- Their elites foundational arguments emanate from demonstrably false narratives
2 generations indoctrinated with dialectic philosophies leads them to act in diametrically opposite nature of Amharas and other Ethiopians
3. External foreign influences & decision makers
TPLF is overwhelmingly supported by the US State Department and CIA which leads to the following results
a. TPLF has significant networks at the UN
b. TPLF has access to mainstream media journalists and so called European and American based analysts and researchers
c. TPLF receives funds and logistical support from various third party entities including the funds they embezzled for 27 years (1991-2018)
d. TPLF can simply declare independence once it is able to invade Welqait with the support of the group within AFNM in the so-called TIBIBIR. (Henok who claims he represents Amhara in the TIBIBIR during a joint press conference stated “we will disarm the Amhara Welqait/Tekeze Defenders and charge them with crimes…”
Editor’s Note: Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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