Behind Ethiopia’s muted political response may lie a deeper story of fear, fatigue and disappointed hope
By: Habte H.
A “pseudo-parliament” like Ethiopia’s may renew a dictator’s term, but it cannot renew the people’s trust by decree. After Ethiopia’s so called “Parliament” reappointed Abiy Ahmed as prime minister on 5 October, I deliberately followed the responses across the social media spaces I regularly visit. I also consulted impressions with others who had been watching.
What caught my attention was how little spontaneous celebration I encountered. In the spaces I followed, and through rapid social media assessments conducted, congratulatory messages appeared largely confined to government-run media and a few prominent PP members. Beyond those, I saw little or none of the ordinary citizens’ enthusiasm, whether support or opposition. What I encountered instead was not indifference but refusal: a silent unwillingness to see him return.
I found myself wondering: where were the ordinary voices? In the Ethiopia I know, people readily celebrate achievements, exchange good wishes and argue passionately about public affairs. This time, in the spaces I followed, there seemed to be more watching than speaking.
When speaking feels costly
Another question troubled me: if people were dissatisfied, why did I not encounter more open rejection? Fear offers one possible explanation. Human Rights Watch has documented arrests of journalists and media workers, restrictions on independent media, and detention of journalists following critical social media posts. Against that background, hesitation about speaking publicly is understandable.
Imagine composing a critical comment, then pausing before pressing “post.” Could it affect your work? Could it worry your family? Would you be comfortable explaining it if someone questioned you? These are illustrative questions, but they help explain how silence can develop without anyone issuing a direct instruction to remain quiet.
Fear can become a locked door between private conviction and public expression. People may have plenty to say while deciding that saying it is too costly. An arrest affects more than the person detained. Others notice. Families worry. Readers become cautious about sharing what they think. That is why quiet should never be casually counted as approval. A citizen may avoid confrontation and still feel profound disappointment.
The election that was not a choice
The deeper issue is not merely who occupies the office, but how the office was acquired. A government can announce an electoral victory and stage an inauguration. Genuine public enthusiasm, however, depends on whether citizens believe the outcome reflects their choices. That belief rests on whether the election behind the appointment permitted meaningful competition, and here, the record is difficult to defend.
Before the June vote, Reuters reported opposition allegations of arrests and legal obstacles restricting political activity. The government denied those allegations. Insecurity also prevented voting in Tigray and some Amhara constituencies. Whatever one makes of each claim individually, the cumulative effect is a contest whose credibility was compromised before a single ballot was counted. An election conducted under those conditions may produce a winner, but it cannot produce a mandate.
Calling an election a victory does not settle questions about its credibility. For someone who believes the result was predetermined, congratulations may feel dishonest, why celebrate a choice you do not believe you were meaningfully allowed to make? The muted response I encountered is not, in that light, a mystery to be explained but an outcome to be expected.
Yet rural voters deserve respect, too. Their limited presence online does not make their views less valid. Claims that they were forced to vote require evidence, not assumptions about their education or residence.
The weight of disappointed hope
Abiy’s early leadership inspired substantial optimism and the opening of political space in 2018. For those who welcomed those changes and later became disillusioned, disappointment carries the weight of an earlier promise.
Trust is like a savings account: each fulfilled commitment adds to it, while repeated disappointments draw it down. An inauguration cannot replenish what years of experience have depleted. The silence I observed cannot establish how much support Abiy retains. Nor does it prove that his departure is imminent. Supporters, opponents and uncertain citizens may all remain quiet for different reasons.
But it raises a question his government should take seriously: do people still feel hopeful enough to welcome another term? The answer requires more than official congratulations. It requires safe criticism, meaningful participation, accountability and improvements people can recognise in their own lives. The applause I did not hear is a reason to listen.
A term renewed, a mandate denied
There is a distinction between holding power and earning it. The first can be arranged through institutions that answer to the ruler. The second must be granted by the ruled. What we are witnessing in Ethiopia is the former masquerading as the latter, an appointment dressed in the language of election, a continuation of power presented as a fresh mandate.
Those who congratulated Abiy did so knowing the machinery behind the result. Some did so out of genuine loyalty. Others did so because silence or refusal carried risks they were unwilling to take. The refusal I sensed in the spaces I followed was not the absence of opinion. It was the presence of opinion too dangerous to speak.
Even those who once supported him now hesitate to denounce his appointment openly. That hesitation is itself a verdict. When citizens cannot say what they think, the absence of protest is not consent. It is fear wearing the mask of calm.
A leader can secure another term in office. Giving people a reason to welcome it is the harder achievement, and one that no decree, no inauguration and no orchestrated victory can manufacture.
Editor’s Note: Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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