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If indeed an alliance called Tsimdo, also known as “Cooperation of Ethiopian People’s Forces for Survival”, has been formed out of some seven opposition armed parties with the most divergent objectives, it may only tell us to what length the current government has gone to alienate them rather than justify the necessity of their coming together. In other words, their political objectives, from what we gather from the bits and scraps available to us, are so at cross-purposes that they have no business coming together to overthrow the existing order. It is not hard to predict that sooner than later they will fight each other before they even achieve their stated objectives.
Furthermore, it is very likely that Tsimdo could very well be the brainchild of the TPLF and EPLF (or People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), as it prefers to be called), the only armed parties of the past half century that have succeeded to capture state power. The two know clearly that today they cannot confront alone the vastly enlarged, better equipped and trained military of PM Abiy Ahmed and FM Berhanu Jula. Even though the government of PM Isayas Afewerki is not part of Tsimdo it will become the primary beneficiary of the disruption, diversions and destruction that it is likely to cause for the rest of the country. It is also very likely that the EPLF will become the primary conduit for all the help the Alliance will receive. An additional benefit for the TPLF will be that it will increase its grip over Tigray to the detriment of the Tigrean people and all opposition parties in it.
It goes without saying that the government of el Sisi of Egypt will become the prime supplier of military hardware and intelligence. Unless of course Washington has other objectives in mind. If the American government’s objective is to return its old ally, the TPLF, to power, it could not have devised a better plan. It seems, however, that PM Abiy’s faith and ideology, for all their worth, align better with America’s than the self-declared Marxists EPLF and TPLF. To be sure, however, America would support any government regardless of the ideology that governs it as long as it does her biddings.
Forming an alliance just for the sake of removing a government without stating at the outset a) one’s vision for the country b) what form of government will replace the existing one c) how the constituents of the alliance plan to form an all-inclusive government (i.e. including the existing non-armed parties) and d) whether it has intention of replacing or amending the existing constitution, etc….can only be met with scepticism rather than support. Tsimdo needs to have more than a desire to overthrow the current government. To be taken seriously it needs to have political goals most Ethiopians support. As far as we gather, the political objectives of the constituting members of Tsimdo are not only divergent, but irreconcilable on several points.
The TPLF, as its very name indicates, was founded and essentially fought for Tigray’s independence just as the ELF first and then EPLF was for Eritrea’s independence. This latter reached its objective with the help of the latter. However, the TPLF, a forever opportunistic party, rather than securing Tigray’s independence went on to demolish the Derg and its military apparatus to wield power over all Ethiopia for nearly three decades. When it lost its position of power through the very process it created for the EPRDF, rather than accepting the will of the coalition, it retrenched to Tigray not only to evade accountability, but to regroup and devise ways to return to power! What this tells us is that it never embraced any form of democratic rule or had in mind the good of all Ethiopians. We have ample evidence, nay incontrovertible proof, that the TPLF has done everything in its power to make the current government fail for the sole purpose of preparing the way for its return to power.
Just as the EPLF sought help to secure the independence of Eritrea from the TPLF, it now appears that the TPLF is expecting the favour to be returned despite their long estrangement that began even before the Badme war. Because of PM Abiy’s strategic blunders, unnecessary manoeuvres, constant making and braking of alliances and harping endlessly on the necessity of access to the Red Sea, the government of Isayas Afewerki is more than happy and ready to endorse any real or perceived enemy of Abiy Ahmed. In other words, the Ethiopian premier has only himself to blame for the emergence of Tsimdo.
Let us not forget that Ato Meles Zenawi was able to maintain his political party in power for 21 long years, i.e. Until his death, not because the TPLF had won militarily over its rivals decisively or maintained a vast army (which it did not) or was given powerful weapons by its foreign supporters (which it does not appear to be the case). Let’s give credit where credit is due. Ato Meles exercised his “divide and govern” politics with such consummate dexterity that armed opposition were totally discouraged from opposing him in anyway. PM Abiy, on the other hand, appears to have chosen primarily the way of confrontation and intimidation. Tsimdo, in fact, appears to be an emotional rather than a rational response to his politics of power.
It may be bold to say that an opposition armed militia called Fano would not have arisen and gone against the federal government had PM Abiy let its members keep their guns to defend themselves. I am not sure what the Prime Minister’s calculations were. However, one may speculate, they turn out to be mistaken. First, being armed in the Amhara region is such an integral part of the culture that going against it would have only produced suspicion and hostility in the people. Secondly, just as a matter of common sense, Fano had been a decisive factor in defeating the TPLF. Depriving it of its weapons was tantamount to inviting the TPLF, which had kept its weapons, to attack it at will and go on to reclaim the lands Tigray never owned historically. Although the disarmament injunction was issued to all the regions (Killils), it was obvious to all that the primary target was the Amhara region.
I am not sure how a nationalist and essentially anti-ethno- federalist militia such as Fano can find common cause with the TPLF which, as stated above, has antithetic views and objectives to it. If indeed there are two most dissimilar political groups, they could not be more so than Fano and the TPLF. In fact, no one would be surprised if they are the ones to part ways first. From all indications, Fano is viscerally opposed to ethno-federalism; appears to be nostalgically attached to Ethiopia’s imperial past as a unified nation and does not seem to embrace the politics of self-determination.
As far as the OLA and the other liberation armies which have joined Tsimdo, I believe that even their armed struggle is unwarranted because their demands can be addressed within the existing political regime if enough pressure can be brought upon it by non-violent means. Their political agenda and goals align very much with the guiding principles of Ethiopia’s ethnic-federalist constitution. Their grievances are more policy based than ideological, except perhaps on secondary points. They oppose the government of Abiy for not going far enough in securing the autonomy and independence of their people. Their gamble is that they will secure a better deal if Tsimdo wins. I am not sure how that can be reconciled with Fano’s vision for Ethiopia!
I do not believe that Ethiopia can support in good conscience Tsimdo not only because it is bound to fail, but because it may very well accelerate the permanent disintegration of the country; or worse yet cause the country to become a failed state. Our appeal should not only call for Tsimdo to dismantle its unholy alliance, but for the government of PM Abiy to pre-empt its consolidation, and the probable support it may garner. He can do so by opening ever widely the democratic space that has been closing since the end of the Tigray war. This means that he needs to invite all armed opposition parties to the table, wherever that may be, to a national reconciliation conference whereby they will be guaranteed to operate in the country or outside to pursue their legitimate political objectives without making recourse to armed struggle. PM Abiy should not make the same mistake that his predecessors have done in believing that he can defeat all armed opposition parties by expanding the army, purchasing very expensive military hardware, and adopting new-fangled strategies. He needs to choose the way of peace if he wants to succeed in preventing the country from going into an unnecessary and endless war and losing a whole generation of Ethiopians and become in the process the one to end Ethiopia as we know her. In fact, this is the right approach if he really desires to be worthy of the Nobel Prize he has been awarded.
Editor’s Note: Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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