The political battle between Abiy Ahmed Ali and Jawar Mohammed is, so far, 2 win versus 0 win. Abiy Ahmed Ali of Jimma has politically outmaneuvered Jawar Mohammed of Arsi twice, while Jawar has had no comparable political victory over Abiy. The final outcome is not yet known, but it seems that Jawar Mohammed’s chances of further outmaneuvering Abiy Ahmed Ali, or winning other political battles, may be coming to an end, along with his political lifeline. Of course, he could still seek to strengthen his influence in the area he comes from. However, resorting to or supporting violent actors would be a dangerous and unacceptable last resort. Any to mobilize the mob he used to, even using the money he has amassed may not help him score political wins any further.
Win Number 1
Following the downfall of the TPLF-led government, Jawar Mohammed argued that Ethiopia had effectively developed two competing centers of power: the formal government led by his political opponent, Abiy Ahmed Ali, and what he portrayed as a Kerro government driven by popular mobilization and street power. The second government enjoyed power share informally on the ground and he enjoyed that moment in Addis Ababa for a brief time. However, his political opponent outsmarted him with a well thought trap that he simply jumped into straight forward. The killing of the renowned Oromo musician Hachalu Hundessa in June 2020was the trap, as most Oromo politicians have come out and elaborated on how that event happened. In the aftermath, Jawar and his supporters mobilized in response to the crisis. They just play into the hands of Abiy Ahmed Ali. From Abiy’s government’s perspective, however, the unrest presented an opportunity to reassert the state’s authority and demonstrate its control over the country’s legitimate instruments of coercion.
Jawar and other opposition figures were subsequently arrested and imprisoned. Abiy Ahmed Ali´s government crackdown significantly weakened the political and organizational structure surrounding Jawar Mohammed and demonstrated the limits of street-based mobilization when confronted by a centralized state security apparatus. This became a major political victory for Abiy Ahmed Ali. Rather than allowing a competing center of political power to develop outside the formal state, his government used its institutional authority to dismantle much of the opposition’s organizational capacity and bring its principal leaders under state control: in prison accused in connection to the death of many people. The subsequent fate of members of the Kerro movement was also mixed. Some adapted to the new political environment and entered business or other economic activities; others were imprisoned, killed, or forced into armed movements in the countryside.
After a while, some elders reportedly intervened and facilitated negotiations between the two political players. According to this account, Jawar Mohammed was asked to step away from the political scene, effectively leaving the Oromo political field to Abiy Ahmed Ali of Jimma. In return, Jawar would be released from prison and allowed to go into exile again, reportedly with millions of birr. Abiy Ahmed Ali won the political confrontation by essentially neutralizing his opponent without having to eliminate him politically or physically. By releasing Jawar and reportedly providing him with substantial financial resources, Abiy was able to remove a major political challenger from the domestic political arena. In political terms, this was Win Number 1 for Abiy Ahmed Ali: his government ultimately prevailed over a competing form of street-based political mobilization, while Jawar’s political influence and organizational leverage were substantially weakened.
Win Number 2
After remaining largely silent for some time and, according to claims circulating about the alleged arrangement, using the money he received, Jawar Mohammed eventually returned to the political arena to oppose Abiy Ahmed. Some claim that he sold his house in Bole for millions and that he received additional money as part of an arrangement to leave the political field and allow Abiy to consolidate his position. But this time, Jawar faces a very different political landscape. He no longer appears to have the same Kerro mobilization behind him. Many of those who once supported him have reportedly moved on or distanced themselves from him following his imprisonment. Some reportedly tell him, “We are now making money with Shimelis Abdissa, go away!” Others accuse him of being unfaithful to the movement, saying, “You sold us out to others.” The central question, therefore, is: How can Jawar Mohammed challenge Abiy Ahmed Ali again when much of the political network and street mobilization that once gave him leverage has weakened or moved elsewhere?
Desperate Jawar Mohammed appeared as a center politician and joined forces on social media with other heavyweight Ethiopian politicians and influencers, like Lidetu Ayalew (center politician), Neamin Zeleke (Ethiopia First), Tewodros Tsegaye (Tigray-first-oriented activist), and so on. He also joined an alliance with Oromo scholars and elites in the diaspora, trying to create political momentum. Even at one social media event arranged by Lidetu and Tewodros Tsegaye, Jawar Mohammed participated while Zemene Kassie, the leader of Fano, and the godfather of the TPLF, Sibhat Nega, were speaking. This is a historical gathering where extreme politicians were coming to terms against Abiy Ahmed Ali. Most Ethiopians thought maybe Jawar Mohammed had changed. Maybe prison had changed him, making him more centrist than extremist. Maybe he had matured and now presented himself as a leader of a nation rather than a mob leader who attempted to cut off the heads of others with a mencha.
Abiy Ahmed Ali planned another political strategy to dismantle the recent unity made against him, from inside the country to the region and the diaspora. Right now, there are coalitions being formed against his government. Political forces have come together on social media. Those on the ground, Fano, TPLF/TDF, OLA, and other forces, have reportedly come to terms over the last eight months. Military buildup is being planned to overthrow Abiy Ahmed Ali and remove him from 4-Kilo within a few days. This is a priority for Abiy Ahmed Ali. It is reported that Abiy has budgeted 6 billion birr: 2 billion to be invested in Oromo politicians and opponents, 2 billion to buy Fano soldiers and those who can help him divide the Fano resistance, and finally, 2 billion birr budgeted for Tigray to fight the TPLF/TDF.
Some of this plan seems to be working. Yesterday, one Fano leader in Gondar surrendered to government forces. But so far, the big catch for Abiy Ahmed Ali is the old political player Jawar Mohammed. According to reports from different Oromo political insiders, Jawar was offered a lot of money again, and he failed to do so. Not only that, Abiy deliberately allowed some of his generals to connect with Jawar Mohammed to do the unthinkable: overthrow Abiy Ahmed Ali and keep the perceived Oromo hegemony. For this, Jawar Mohammed is being informed about current military actions, such as drone strikes and other secrets, so that he feels welcomed and feels like an insider of the system again. That is why he came out and spoke in the media several times about the drone operations. He even claimed that one Fano leader was seen with a drone but was left alone by the drone operators because the person works for the government. This was a lie, but by saying that, he played the role he was paid for. He even openly gave directions on how to carry out the recent village-to-village destruction and burning in the Wellega Kiremu area, which is one of his expertise.
This means Jawar Mohammed has fallen into the trap of Abiy Ahmed Ali again. First, Abiy Ahmed Ali managed to recruit some generals and other political leaders/elders to feed Jawar Mohammed inside information. Those generals and insiders acted as if they were considering him as their option if Abiy Ahmed Ali failed, or as someone who could lead the country if some kind of coup d’état happened. Another approach used by Abiy Ahmed Ali is to pay him some of the 2 billion birr reportedly planned to bribe Oromo elites not to join the coalition that is working to overthrow the government. Through these two offers, Abiy Ahmed Ali managed to effectively isolate Jawar Mohammed from the social media coalition that is shaping the politics on the ground and is becoming more dangerous for the government.
Now, Lidetu Ayalew came out in the open and said, Jawar Mohammed´s political adventure in Ethiopia is over. It is dead. Since he failed the test of principledness and fair politics for all Ethiopians. Now Jawar Mohammed is seen as the one bought by the government talking against the coalition formed against the Abiy Ahmed Ali government. This is the second political win for Abiy Ahmed Ali of Beshasha, Jimma over Jawar Mohamed of Dhumuga, Arsi. Jawar has no meaningful political base, so to speak, in Ethiopian politics. Maybe he might go back to the Stone Age, where he ordered those mobs to kill using stones and mencha, while his opponent, Abiy Ahmed Ali, uses drones to kill others. This is where the political game between these two Oromo politicians stands now.
Editor’s Note: Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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