The War Formula of Abiy Ahmed Ali: Conflict Uploading 

By Ayele Meshesha

At the heart of Abiy Ahmed Ali’s leadership style lies a manipulative two-faced strategy. On the one hand, he presents himself as a peaceful leader focused on development. On the other hand, he is a man capable of designing and fueling conflict and destruction non-stop since he came to power. This duplicitous strategy, empowered by a multi-million-dollar propaganda machine that exploits the power of social media to reach millions, and even billions, in an instant, has convinced him that he can endlessly craft his own narrative and deceive his countrymen and the wider world. However, all of Abiy Ahmed’s calculations have now been exposed. There are no more secrets or surprises. Anyone supporting the 21st-century genocider, whether Ethiopian or foreigner, knows this truth. Such individuals are either exploiting the situation to enrich themselves or are outright enemies of the people and the country. Right now, we know that Abiy is definitely cooking up another war. When it comes to war, Abiy has his own formula. Let us zoom in and examine his exposed strategies. 

1. Before launching the War, he sends the so-called peace delegations

Prior to the previous war with Tigray forces (November 2020 – November 2022), Abiy Ahmed tried to be perceived as a peaceful leader by sending religious leaders, women, celebrities, and prominent figures such as Haile Gebrselassie to mediate between the government and Tigray forces. While publicly presenting this image to his countrymen and the world, he was simultaneously preparing for a massive war. He also engaged the international community in Addis Ababa, claiming he was seeking a peaceful resolution and constructive dialogue with the northerners. He skillfully used the benefit of the doubt that came with his Nobel Peace Prize to portray himself as a man incapable of harming others, a narrative reinforced by his often-repeated line: “I am the protector of my brother.”

Now, Abiy Ahmed Ali is once again preparing for a new war. Many observers believe he will begin with Tigray before expanding to other areas. To achieve this, he must first execute his familiar “peaceful delegation” strategy. Perception is everything, and propaganda is the tool. It is a simple psychological game: create powerful dramatic scenes, then amplify them through mainstream media and social platforms like TikTok, Facebook, X, and YouTube. When people are constantly bombarded with the same crafted narrative, it gradually becomes accepted as reality. 

This is why, shortly after the disputed election, he sent former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo to Mekelle. The visit served as a reminder to Tigray forces about the Pretoria Agreement while signaling to the international community that he had tried his best to avoid war. Additionally, he deployed his allies, the disgraced former interim president of the Tigray region, Getachew Reda, and security chief Redwan Hussein, to publish articles in Al Jazeera, with title “Ethiopia must not be dragged back into war” pushing the narrative that it is not Abiy who is seeking conflict, but rather the forces in Tigray who are not respecting the Pretoria agreement. To tell the truth, exactly these two vodka drinking partners who have helped the genocider Abiy Ahmed to effectively sabotage the Pretoria agreement. They are the once who signed the deal and they are the once who effectively put aside the implementation of the deal. Now they are calling for peace after they annihilate the process. Anyway, they are clearly following orders from their vodka sponsor to help Abiy play the same old game we all know too well, that of the “peace-seeking” man. Obasanjo, Getachew Reda, and Redwan Hussein are acting in a coordinated manner to portray Abiy as a reluctant leader who is being forced into war, rather than the one initiating it. But the saying goes: “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.” Abiy can no longer fool us all. The whole world now recognizes this tired formula. If war breaks out in the coming days, it will be loud and clear: the dogs have already barked at Al Jazeera. This is Abiy’s war.

2. Designing the right event to kick start the war 

We all remember how effectively Abiy Ahmed convinced the vast majority of Ethiopians, both inside the country and in the diaspora, of the supposed necessity of launching a war against Tigray. He masterfully crafted a powerful narrative claiming that the Northern Command, which had been stationed in Tigray for decades to protect the region from potential conflict with Eritrea, was suddenly and brutally attacked by the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). Abiy deliberately engineered or exploited this incident, then aggressively sold this version of events to the public. Tragically, many Ethiopians bought the narrative without question. Today, history appears to be repeating itself. Abiy Ahmed is once again carefully designing the perfect pretext, one that can once more rally the Ethiopian people and the international community behind him. Some analysts believe he may already have it in place.

One prominent theory points to the drone strike carried out near Shire in Tigray shortly after the sham election. The attack reportedly hit several TDF positions, and many suspect it was a calculated provocation designed to trigger a new round of conflict, giving Abiy the justification he needs to portray himself as the victim rather than the aggressor. Another excuse currently being parroted by Abiy and his generals is the alleged “Tsimdo” alliance between Tigray forces and Eritrean forces, which they claim may also include the Fano and OLA forces. If true, this possibility terrifies Abiy and his inner circle to the core. Because if these forces were to unite and march toward Addis Ababa, the genocider would have only two options: flee the country or fall into their hands within a matter of days. Although there is some consensus that these groups have begun preliminary talks about possible cooperation, there is no strong evidence yet that the four forces are actively working together militarily. Nevertheless, Marshal Birhanu Jula recently spoke publicly about the grave danger this potential coalition poses to Ethiopia. This suggests that Abiy’s camp is actively putting together another key part of the formula to justify and kick-start the next war. So, this part of the war formula too is exposed. 

3. To look like the underdog of the war 

When Abiy wants to go to war, he prefers to be perceived as the underdog — the weaker side that cannot win the war, as if he is on the verge of losing both the conflict and the country. He deliberately cultivates this image so that he can later act unexpectedly and catch his opponents off guard. This is exactly what he did during the 2020–2022 Tigray War. The TPLF/TDF forces did not anticipate that Abiy would deploy advanced UAE drones. While TPLF leaders relied on outdated strategies reminiscent of the war against the Derg regime, Abiy embraced modern warfare tactics.

 In particular, before fully bringing in Turkish and Iranian-made drones, Abiy borrowed advanced UAE drones along with their operators. These were used effectively to decimate tens of thousands of young Tigrayan fighters who were marching toward Addis Ababa through the Wello and northern Shewa areas of the Amhara region. The TPLF forces underestimated Abiy’s cruelty and strategic cunning, a miscalculation that caused them to pay a devastating price, sacrificing many of Tigray’s brightest young lives. Today, everyone knows who Abiy Ahmed truly is. No one is naïve anymore. Abiy would not hesitate to use even a nuclear bomb if he had access to one. Thank God he does not. Otherwise, this sick man would do absolutely anything to protect and maintain his power. 

The only thing Abiy has ever relied on, both in the past and now, is DRONES, DRONES, and more DRONES. Along with the drones, he has imported mercenary drone operators, mostly foreigners, paid for with the country’s own dollars. Any force planning to confront Abiy Ahmed Ali knows this reality very well. The Fano forces understood this early and effectively neutralized Abiy’s soldiers over the past three years in the Amhara region. Although Abiy uses drones extensively, he rarely manages to hit Fano fighters. Instead, he mostly massacres civilians. Having learned from the Tigray forces’ experience, the Fano have developed effective strategies to fight a madman armed with drones. Now, if the TDF and other opposition forces face Abiy Ahmed Ali’s army, they too know exactly what to do. Abiy’s drone-dependent formula has been fully exposed. There will be no more surprises.

Now that Abiy’s war formulas have been exposed and he is no longer unpredictable, all Ethiopians, and indeed all East Africans, must unite to root out this dangerous UAE mole from the region once and for all.

Editor’s Note: Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com  

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