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From Euphoria to Despair and Resistance: Ethiopia’s Lost Promise of Peace and Democratic Transition

As a brief moment of hope for political freedom, inclusive economy, and reconciliation and healing dissipates, Ethiopia now struggles under war, repression, and collective trauma. Seven years after a moment of national hope, can the country reclaim peace — and what must change for healing to begin?

Ethiopia Lost Promise

By Oli Zagaro

I remember the euphoria

On 2 April 2018, Ethiopia felt like a country reborn. When the new prime minister took office, millions cheered. Political prisoners were released, exiled dissidents returned, and even a long-simmering war with Eritrea ended in a handshake that won a Nobel Peace Prize for the new prime minister.

For the first time in decades, there was hope — real, contagious hope. Ethiopians at home and abroad dared to believe the cycle of repression had finally broken. I was one of them. Like many in the diaspora, I returned home with cautious optimism, ready to contribute to what seemed like a national awakening. Seven years later, that hope has turned to heartbreak. The promise of peace has given way to fear, and the country once celebrated as a model of renewal now stands on the brink of despair.

Everyday life under siege

Across Ethiopia, daily existence has become an act of survival. Sending a child to school or buying food at a local market can mean risking your life. Drone strikes, kidnappings, and armed raids are no longer shocking — they are routine.

Even more chilling is the corruption that has crept into every layer of life. Kidnapping for ransom has become a business, reportedly facilitated by the same institutions meant to protect citizens. Ransom payments flow through official banks, showing just how deeply lawlessness has been normalized. What does it say about a nation when violence becomes an industry and fear a form of governance?

A nation in trauma

Ethiopia’s economy is crumbling under the weight of endless war, but the deeper damage is psychological. Millions have been displaced. Families are grieving. Children grow up surrounded by death, learning that violence — not dialogue — is the language of power. This trauma is collective and generational. It will shape Ethiopia’s identity long after the last gun falls silent.

Healing this nation will require more than rebuilding roads and schools; it demands a reckoning with truth, accountability, and placing traumatic memories into historical archives instead of using them as a political asset to manipulate society and legitimize dehumanization and violence.

The silencing of dissent

Those who dare to criticize government policy or speak of justice often find themselves behind bars. Journalists, activists, and opposition figures are detained without trial; their fates hidden from view. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have documented widespread torture and arbitrary arrests. Trials, when they occur, feel like theatre — performed to project control, not justice. The message is clear: silence is safer than truth.

Isolated in the neighborhood  

The government that once promised unity now presides over a fragmented nation. Relations with neighboring countries have deteriorated. The 2018 peace effort that won prime minster Abiy Ahemed a Nobel Peace Prize is in tatters. So much so that the drums of war between the two countries is getting louder by the day. Relations between Ethiopia and its eastern neighbor Somalia are at the lowest level.

Faith in domestic institutions has virtually collapsed. Government institutions themselves have become a criminal entity or directly working with criminal syndicates benefiting from lucrative business such as mining, foreign currency trades, land allocation through awarding of government contracts.

The much-touted National Dialogue Commission — meant to guide the process of identifying issues of national contention — is seen by many Ethiopians as a hollow structure, ‘dead on arrival’ lacking inclusiveness, credibility, and the moral authority to facilitate a process of existential national concerns. In its form the National Dialogue Commission internal cohesion and symbolic as well as substantive caliber that is valuable asset for such a complex process.

The unbearable cost of war

Between 2020 and 2022, the war in Tigray killed an estimated 600,000 people — one of the deadliest conflicts of our time. Entire communities were wiped out. Drone strikes hit churches, refugee camps, and schools. A 2024 study in Conflict and Health found that women and children bore a disproportionate share of the violence. As the Tigray war quieted, another conflict ignited in Amhara, leaving more than nine million children out of school. For many, their only classroom is the memory of loss, pain and anguish. 

The way to peace is peace itself

Vietnamese monk Thích Nhất Hạnh once wrote: ‘The way to peace is peace itself.’ His words reject the belief that violence can ever be a path to stability. Ethiopia’s leaders would do well to remember this. You cannot bomb your way to ‘victory’, nor jail your political opponent’s way to harmony. Real peace demands listening, humility, and courage — the courage to admit wrongs and confront uncomfortable truths.

What must change

Ethiopia is at a crossroads. Its government faces a choice: continue down the path of denial and destruction or embrace accountability and inclusion. The international community, too, cannot remain silent while atrocities perpetrated by the Addis Ababa regime continue.

The international community must:
• Demand independent investigations into war crimes and mass detentions.
• Condition military and financial aid on tangible human rights improvements.
• Support trauma recovery and mental health programmes for survivors.
• Insist on access for journalists and humanitarian workers in all conflict zones.

The world’s indifference enables impunity. Ethiopia’s suffering is not inevitable — it is the consequence of choices that can, and must, be changed. The imploring look of orphaned children, the tears on the faces men and women in the Internally Displaced Peoples (IDP) camps all tell stories of suffering.

The truth must come first

There can be no peace without truth. Ethiopia’s leaders and their allies must abandon the politics of denial and deceit. Healing begins when nations choose empathy over ego and inclusion over fear. The euphoria of 2018 may feel like a distant memory, but it still carries a lesson: people believed change was possible once — and they can believe again. Peace is not beyond reach, but it will take honesty, humility, and the courage to listen to those whose voices have been silenced for too long. Most importantly, Ethiopia and its people are exhausted and traumatized. They desperately need respite from the endless cycle of war and state inflicted destruction. The international community should and must listen to the cries of the Ethiopian people and respond with ‘fierce urgency’ because a major catastrophic crisis is unfolding before our eyes and time is running out before the crisis becomes regional mayhem. In a region already engulfed with multidimensional crisis, an escalating calamity of 130 million people could trigger inconceivable tragedy.    

The truth is behind the glitter and cosmetic ornamental ‘development’ of the capital Addis Abeba. There is an unfolding tragedy in almost all parts of the country. Over the last fifty years Ethiopians have become familiar with the notion of ‘the past was better.’ All succeeding administrations have proven themselves to  be worse than their predecessors. This regime too is worse than its predecessor. Hard to swallow, but it is a fact on many levels. Peace and security, the freedom to leave one’s home and return home safely has become a distant memory.

The author could be reached via email: olizeagaro@yahoo.com 

Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com     

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