Brothers at War in Multiple Fronts: Who is Set to Triumph in the End?

By: Merhatsidk Mekonnen Abayneh

These days, nowhere in Ethiopia is safe enough to freely travel from one corner to another because of the deteriorating climate of fear and insecurity apparently rampant throughout the country. Human mobility is severely restricted outside the narrow geographical limits of major cities and towns which make it difficult, if not impossible, for ordinary citizens to move around and participate in even daily labor for their basic necessities under normal circumstances.

Although nominally guaranteed under Art. 32 of the Federal Constitution to thrive and to be exercised by not only all citizens, but also by those lawfully residing aliens, the fundamental freedom of movement far and wide has now been curtailed and replaced by one’s own self-imposed confinement to a given village or town of abode. Worse, it is terrifying to hear and witness routine kidnappings in broad daylight and demand for payment of exorbitant ransom by organized hostage-takers, whoever those perpetrators of such heinous crimes might be.

In several rural and urban neighborhoods of the Amhara Region alone, (a region which has been experiencing a series of drone strikes and heavy mortar bombardments for three consecutive years now), millions of children have already been forced to quit going to school not only for lack of peaceful, and stable environment, but also due to the full and partial flattening of their learning compounds and playing fields including classrooms and labs amid turbulent wars and incessant conflicts.

In view of an indiscriminate and relentless attack, health and sanitary facilities such as clinics, and hospitals as well as water supply points have been burnt to the ground desperately leaving scores of innocent civilians including pregnant women admitted for delivery and terminally ill patients under intensive care and medical attendance to an acute degree of suffering and death.

Sexual assault as well as individual or gang rape targeting women and underage girls is becoming an every-day phenomenon in conflict-affected towns and rural villages of the Amhara Region in an alarming pace with no  sign of trace and impunity on the part of the culprits to account for their horrific crimes. The BBC’s most recent report, entitled, “Ethiopia’s Amhara Conflict: the Forgotten War that has Destroyed Women’s Lives”, issued on the 19^th of November 2025 with regard to what has been shamefully perpetrated against poor women in South Gonder and West Godjam Zonal Administrations provides for a vivid and striking account of such a menace exclusively depending on the direct and desperate testimony of the victims themselves.

Perplexing to comprehend what actually to profit from that kind of abominable crime, though, farmlands with crops thereon ripe enough to be harvested and grazing pastures protected aside for cattle herds are inadvertently and sometimes deliberately set on fire entailing terrible hunger and mass starvation on the communities already in a distressing state of affairs, for that matter. Even residential huts and places of worship could not escape being targeted in many instances.

Quite frankly, it is bizarre to find out that we are all running mad from top to bottom. As a matter of principle, I see no strong justification at all why we allow our beloved nation to be erased and completely disappear from the world map because of our internecine warfare being waged in a reckless and irresponsible manner.

It is absolutely certain that none of the belligerents bitterly vying for a landslide victory amid the confrontation is going to be an outright winner in this bloody confrontation. Even if that is going to be the case in any miraculous way, it should happen definitely after we shall have lost the very nation we claim to love and adore most before our sight. In other words, the state power we strongly covet to maintain or rather to capture by force will unfortunately eventuate in an unprecedented vacuum amounting to a zero-sum politics.

As we keep on making ourselves unnecessarily busy with an endless-looking internal squabbles and violent rivalries with one another, there is no doubt that external foes find it opportune to remain steadfast and vigilant to attack the country’s frontiers as and when they so wish by taking advantage of our internal weaknesses in the absence of a unified resistance.

You can, for instance, witness that most of our international boundaries are unsafe and prone to an unfettered territorial encroachment on the part of neighboring countries at present. More than ever before now, we have been vulnerable to routine cross-border infiltrations and territorial incursions and even aggressive occupations by enemy troops with little or no rebuttal at all.

Why not try for a moment to visit the long list of unwarranted provocations: Eritrea still occupies parts of our sovereign landmass in Tigray Region under the pretext of containing the TPLF and expanding its own territorial domain. Regardless of its own accelerated demise as a formidable nation itself due to the civil strife of its own fabrication,   Sudan continues with strongholds in the Al-Fashaga Triangle forming our North-Western portions of the country.

Late comer South Sudan itself has been emboldened to infiltrate and control portions 200 k.ms deep into our newly structured South-Western Regional State at liberty. Even tiny Djibouti has been trying to test our very patience to the point of striking our border villages in Afar and ruthlessly killing dozens of innocent citizens with drones in the name of pursuing armed opposition groups allegedly operating across the region.

With the isolated exception of the breakaway Republic of Somaliland, with which we happen to enjoy an array of economic, political and diplomatic engagements ever since its de facto independence, equally tense is the experience we have with Somalia proper, (another traditionally hostile neighbor), further complicated due to the presence and provocative actions of the terrorist Al-Shabaab militants operating in that country.

Of course, the ambivalent attitude of Kenya does not differ from that of the aforementioned constellation as the relation between our two sisterly-looking nations has also, though a little healthier, begun to be strained in recent times as a result of occasional cross-border clashes involving organized looting by competing communities apart from the disturbing activities of the Oromo Liberation Front (O.L.F) ‘s rebels in the adjacent area.

What else could then better elucidate the erosion of a given state identity and international standing other than such falling of the significant portion of its national territory into the hands of invading foreign troops and remaining occupied in that unpleasant posture for an indefinite duration in an open defiance of its invaluable asset of sovereignty?

It needs to be emphasized here that a state unable to watch on its borders and thereby defend its inhabitants would lose the respect of neighbors, the loyalty of its citizens and eventually relinquish its identity as a sovereign entity.

Against the above-mentioned unprovoked aggressions and encirclements, however, almost for three decades and half now, the nation is engaged at war with itself, purportedly with no end in sight. Due to this mounting pressure, therefore, all our local, regional and national defense and security forces are pre-occupied and exhaustively tired of somewhat containing the day-to-day deteriorating internal strife with considerable losses in terms of life and property.

How then can a country embroiled in an internal turmoil on such an unprecedented scale manage to resist and reverse an external aggression in full swing?

From the socio-economic trajectory, Ethiopia currently appears to heavily aspire for the development and utilization of the huge potential of its abundant natural resources in a bid to improve the livelihood of its growing population in an abject poverty and underdevelopment to a tragic proportion. Nevertheless, this long-term and novel aspiration must be predicated on the realm of an enabling climate of durable peace and tranquility primarily required for the healthy functioning of the system of progressive governance slated for societal transformation.

On top of this, Ethiopia has, since recent times, been trying to wake up from its deep sleep and starting to reassert its legitimate claim for maritime access and nostalgic return to the Red Sea once again after having been relegated with the precarious status of a land-locked nation and unfairly excluded by design from the sea for more than three solid decades. Yet, this momentous project is less likely to be materialized and bear the desired fruition simply, with a strong appetite of the government in action and its staunch ideological crew short of an overwhelming support from its larger electorate, who should, as a rule, come forward in mass and rally behind the renewed campaign aimed at mobilizing public opinion at home and in the diaspora.

Unfortunately, Ethiopia has more hostile enemies than genuine friends and partners in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. As the official seat of the African Union and the anchor state in charge of the regional peace and security architecture amply relied upon at the global level, the country’s profound role in the promotion and facilitation of regional integration is less attractive in the eyes of few rogue nations. This is perhaps attributable to the unreasonable fear of being overwhelmed and dominated by its rich historical legacies as far as anti colonial struggle is concerned. Egypt assumes the status of number one strategic rival, always poised to obstruct and darken the dream of Ethiopia’s multi-faceted progress and development in all its power.

Against these crucial concerns and predicaments, however, it is outrageous to learn that the tone of vocal response and level of action being taken by both the responsible government authorities on duty and armed groups in the field alike, (if any), to lift the nation out of the dismal crisis and stabilize its tense political atmosphere before it slides into total disintegration and collapse as a viable polity does not seem to be matched with a set of rather huge and interwoven challenges we have been confronting from across the wide spectrum of varied foreign sources.

In other words, greater precaution must be taken so that any domestic peace and security strategy we tend to devise and consistently operationalize may, in no way,  fall short of the level of wisdom, degree of tolerance and state of determination required to resolve the political impasse we are in with little or no cost. For instance, it is very unlikely that the people of the Amhara Region will be keenly interested to cooperate with the central government authorities in the latter’s ongoing drive to revitalize the nation’s maritime ambitions at the moment, Amharans and their fellow compatriots do prioritize on what they call ‘existential struggle’ of their own being waged against ethnically motivated elimination and extinction in broader view.

Regardless of constructive advice and recommendations to the contrary, both the central government and the insurgent groups violently operating in various regions persistently claim that they are in full command and control of this or that territory from their side, usually to the disbelief of those witnesses attesting to the truth on the ground.

In reality, however, such kind of temporary and short-lived shifting of territorial seizures and pushbacks would not help much other than serve to exacerbate the already complex environment and worsen the merciless uprooting and displacement of communities in mass from their respective home-areas.

That would, in return, undermine the country’s capacity to mobilize its citizenry and effectively respond to the chain of these outstanding challenges and priorities in an organized and unified voice and action. In the wake of this rigorous context, therefore, it is a high time for the Federal Government of Ethiopia to reconcile its outstanding priorities with those of such armed adversaries as Fanno, O.L.A and even TPLF and thereby put an end to internally going on hostilities for the nation’s common good.

In conclusion, let us be loud and clear:

Given its strategic location, burgeoning population, economic resilience and the growing volume of its import and export trade and investment, seeking for a passage to the nearby sea even through the sovereign territory of Eritrea without an explicit infringement of the latter’s independence is not a big deal for today’s Ethiopia as it has had one of the widely reputed naval facilities in the region capable of contributing successfully for the global order and security architecture in close harmony and cooperation with the Great Powers not long ago. With that historical background and ever-increasing logistical need, there is no doubt that the country will, in no time, garner the required alignment with the global community and gradually revert to its prestigious position  in international waterways once we shall have prudently managed the prevailing domestic instability and put our own house in good order in the first place.

Finally, coastal states including that of young Eritrea, from which Ethiopia has been demanding access to the Red Sea, have no absolute and undisputable power whatsoever over their landlocked neighbors as clearly and unequivocally stipulated in the relevant provisions of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea signed in Montego Bay, Jamaica in December 1982.

In the meantime, let us be reminded of the fact that the said framework convention of equal significance to both the coastal and landlocked nations was ratified by the country’s House of People’s Representatives on May 17^th 2012 as per the Proclamation No. 742/2012, for the detailed elaboration of which I promise, God willing, to return in my next contribution on the subject.

Merhatsidk Mekonnen Abayneh is former Chief Legal Advisor to the President of the Amhara National Regional State

Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com  

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