By Dr. M. Omar Hashi
Now that the Turkish Government has completed the seismic data and US intelligence has confirmed that the Turkish Oruc Reis research vessel has found substantial deposits of oil and natural gas off the coastal waters of Hobyo, in the central Galmudug State- an agreement between the United States and Turkiye vis-a-vis Somalia is urgently required to move to the extraction and commercial profitability phase.
The Central Somalia Basin was always suspected to contain massive hydrocarbons as well as rare earth and uranium. Building on data collected from geological surveys carried out by the Americans in the 1950s and subsequently by Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips in the 1960s and 1970s, the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) research vessel Oruc Reis in 2025 has now confirmed the exact location for these untapped offshore energy deposits. This is historic achievement for the Federal Republic of Somalia and President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud’s government.
The next few months will see key developments as the Republic of Turkiye under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the United States administration of Donald J. Trump iron out an agreement on the modalities of Somalia’s offshore energy exports. The Republic of Turkiye that has invested for two decades well over 5 billion in direct investment and support to the Somali Federal Government will reap massive financial returns in its investment and bilateral trade with Somalia. The American oil subsidiary companies are expected to benefit based on their historic concessions (despite these mostly being onshore) as well as the influential role of the United States inside Somalia.
As the extraction phase of Somali offshore oil industry is beginning, a comprehensive agreement between the Turkish and American Governments vis-à-vis Somalia’s oil is the natural political endgame. The Americans have coveted Somalia’s energy resources since 1950s, military intervened from 1991 and recently commenced direct military presence inside Somalia with the return of U.S. forces in 2012 to operate from the Baledogle Airfield Base (BAB) outside of Mogadishu. Similarly, Turkiye has its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu since 2017, the Camp Turksom military academy as well as thousands of its own military personnel in the country. Turkiye also plans to build the Hobyo Port (and most likely a LNG facility) along with a second military base in Galmudug State in 2026. Therefore, both the United States and Turkiye governments would need to resolve their inherent and overriding interests in Somalia. An agreement between the United States and Turkiye would also constitute the political endgame in Somalia, resulting in the Federal Government of Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud triumphing over all the member states.
The expected oil revenue-estimated at 2 billion US dollars annually will give the Federal Government of Somalia unsurpassed financial leverage and real political power to not only pacify opposition from member states but to garner the key support of the United States government and by extension the British and EU powers on its policies.
The Republic of Turkiye is eager to ensure its long-term investments in Somalia and will, therefore, most likely stress to the U.S. the importance of further strengthening the Somali Federal Government, as well as accelerating infrastructural integration with Ethiopia. The United States government has always expected that a U.S.-led energy consortium, most likely under ConocoPhillips— that has already has an extensive history in Somalia—will take the lead in the commercial exploitation of Somali energy. Internal member-state political dynamics are favorable since Galmudug State has always been a key pillar of the Federal Government of Somalia and does not have a history of secessionist sentiment. A positive factor is that current Galmudug State President Ahmed Qoorqoor and the incumbent challenger The National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) chief Mahad Mohamed Salad have equally prioritized working with the United States and Turkiye on the offshore energy extraction. In fact, the Habr Gedir clan of Hawiye-which Qoorqoor and Mahad Salad both hail from, also predominantly inhabits the Hobyo District and the larger Galmudug State.
On the Federal level, Galmudug has an added stabilizing factor since both current Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud and his resurgent 2026 election challenger former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo— both hail from other Galmudug constituent clans. This means in fact that whether Hassan Sheikh Mahmud or Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo assume the Somali Presidency in 2026, both Turkiye and US Trump administration can expect a smooth trajectory toward commercial extraction of Hobyo’s offshore energy deposits.
Consequently, it is vital that the Turkish and American governments reconcile their intersecting strategic interests in Somalia in the coming year. As two NATO members and fiercely committed to Somalia’s energy resources, the US and Turkiye share many strategic goals, lest of which is to keep out Chinese influence from growing in Somalia and the solidification of the Federal Government of Somalia against the Al-Shabaab terrorists and internal destabilizers. So far, the Americans have been supportive of Turkiye’s successes in Somalia since 2012; however, it is crucial to the future prosperity and stability of Somalia and the Horn of Africa region that these two powers come to amicable agreement of their interest in Somalia’s natural resources.
The writer can be reached at : wadijir@hotmail.com
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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