What Now? The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance 

Wondmagegn Ejigu Kebede 
Uppsala, Sweden

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), rising from the rugged terrain of the Benishangul-Gumuz region, stands as more than a feat of engineering. It is a bold declaration to the world: development is possible without the conditionalities of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF). For decades, nations across the Global South have been trapped in a cycle of debt and austerity, shackled by structural adjustment programs (SAPs) imposed by these institutions. These policies—often requiring privatization, deregulation, and cuts to social spending—have failed to deliver on their promise of poverty eradication. Instead, they have deepened inequality, destabilized economies, and fueled what scholar Naomi Klein terms the “shock doctrine,” where crises are exploited to push exploitative economic reforms. Ethiopia’s decision to finance and construct the $5 billion GERD independently, generating 5,000 megawatts of electricity without reliance on Bretton Woods institutions, challenges this status quo. It raises a critical question for the Global South. 

The GERD’s significance lies not only in its scale but in its financing model. When Ethiopia proposed the dam in 2011, the World Bank and IMF refused funding, citing geopolitical tensions with downstream Nile Basin countries like Egypt and Sudan. Rather than abandon the project, Ethiopia turned inward, mobilizing domestic resources through bonds, taxes, and diaspora contributions. This approach starkly contrasts with the experiences of nations like Ghana , Zambia and unfortunately now Ethiopia, as paradoxical as it may sound, which accepted SAPs in exchange for loans only to face skyrocketing debt, currency collapse, and social unrest. Ethiopia’s success in constructing 70% of the dam by 2023—despite external pressure—proves that mega-projects can be realized through collective national effort rather than foreign debt. The GERD’s 5,000 megawatt capacity will not only electrify Ethiopia but also position it as a regional energy exporter, potentially earning billions in revenue. This achievement undermines the narrative that the Global South requires external “saviors” to develop. 

The Paradox 

The paradox of Ethiopia’s GERD narrative lies in the stark ideological divergence between its architects and its ceremonial inheritors. Meles Zenawi’s administration (1995–2012) embodied a “developmental state” ethos, strategically insulating Ethiopia from IMF/World Bank conditionalities to preserve policy autonomy. His government funded the GERD’s launch in 2011 through domestic bonds, diaspora fundraising, and a 1% income tax levy—tools that aligned with his idea of self-reliance. By the time of his death, the dam’s construction had become a symbol of defiance against external pressures, particularly Egypt’s hydro-hegemony. Meles’s successor, Hailemariam Desalegn (2012–2018), maintained the project’s momentum (reaching 60% completion by 2018). 

Under Abiy Ahmed (2018–present), the GERD entered its most geopolitically fraught phase, coinciding with a dramatic ideological pivot. Abiy’s public skepticism of the dam during his early premiership (including 2018 remarks questioning its technical feasibility) contrasted sharply with his later embrace of it as a legacy project. This shift paralleled his economic U-turn: by securing $6.2 billion in IMF loans (2020–2023) and adopting structural adjustment policies—privatizing state assets, floating the birr, and cutting fuel subsidies—Abiy dismantled Meles’s insulationist framework. Critics argue these reforms prioritized fiscal appeasement over development, redirecting funds toward conflict management (e.g., the Tigray, Amhara and Oromo Civil wars) and vanity projects like Addis Ababa’s $10 billion “Green Legacy” initiative—a luxury urban overhaul marketed as “beautification-led growth.” The result? Inflation soared to 34% (2024), eroding public savings while Abiy leveraged the GERD’s completion for political capital. 

The crux of the paradox is performative versus substantive legacy. Meles’s exclusion from the GERD’s inauguration—despite his role as its ideological and financial architect—mirrors the erasure of his developmental state model. Abiy, meanwhile, has weaponized the dam’s symbolism while gutting its underlying economic principles. By acquiescing to IMF demands (e.g., removing electricity subsidies for GERD-generated power), he risks commodifying the dam’s benefits for foreign debt servicing rather than domestic industrialization. This duality reveals a deeper tension in post-Meles Ethiopia: the GERD stands as a monument to self-reliance, yet its political harvest is reaped by a leader whose policies contradict its founding philosophy. The dam thus becomes a metaphor—its turbines powered by Meles’s idea, but its ceremonial ribbon-cutting overshadows the erosion of the very ideals that made it possible. 

Conclusion: What Now? Ethiopia’s Crossroads After GERD 

The completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) marks a historic milestone for Ethiopia, symbolizing its aspirations for energy sovereignty and economic transformation. Yet, the pressing question remains: What now? For GERD to fulfill its promise, Ethiopia must pivot from celebratory rhetoric to pragmatic, equitable governance. The dam’s revenue—projected to bolster national income through energy exports—must be channeled into “productive investments”: reviving stalled infrastructure projects, expanding manufacturing, and modernizing agriculture. Without such priorities, funds risk being squandered on vanity projects or militarization, deepening public distrust and economic fragility. Transparency in revenue management, coupled with anti-corruption safeguards, is non-negotiable to ensure GERD becomes a catalyst for inclusive growth, not elite enrichment. 

Equally urgent is addressing the human cost of misguided policies. While Addis Ababa’s beautification projects continue displacing many, millions of Ethiopians—including underpaid civil servants and marginalized communities—struggle with soaring inflation and food insecurity. GERD’s success must be measured not in megawatts alone, but in tangible improvements to livelihoods: subsidized rural electrification, affordable housing, and wage reforms. Simultaneously, the government must de-escalate internal conflicts in regions like Amhara, Tigray and Oromia. Diverting resources from repression to dialogue and development could stabilize the nation, creating a foundation for long-term prosperity. 

Ultimately, Ethiopia’s path forward hinges on ACCOUNTABILITY. Civil society, media, and international partners must hold leaders accountable for GERD’s legacy, demanding that its profits uplift all Ethiopians, not just a privileged few. Youth empowerment, grassroots innovation, and regional diplomacy will determine whether GERD becomes a beacon of hope or a missed opportunity. As the dam’s turbines hum to life, Ethiopia stands at a crossroads: Will it harness this moment to build a just, sustainable future, or repeat the cycles of waste and repression? The answer lies in choosing people over palaces! 

Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com  

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