By: SUJAJA
Introduction
The Horn of Africa is once again shifting under geopolitical pressure. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s unexpected outreach to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki is more than symbolic. It risks realigning power in a region already bracing for another round of instability. At the same time, Italy’s recent high-level visit to Ethiopia shows Europe sees an opportunity and a responsibility to shape outcomes.
For Ethiopia, these developments are more than external news. They are signals that the next 12 to 24 months will determine whether Ethiopia solidifies its sovereignty and economic ambitions or slips into a multi-front crisis.
Trump’s Letter to Eritrea: A Geopolitical Spark
On July 30, 2025, Donald Trump sent a letter to Isaias Afwerki, calling for a new era of U.S.–Eritrean friendship based on mutual respect and truth. While Trump holds no formal office, his influence on U.S. foreign policy, especially if he returns to power in 2025, is significant.
Why it matters for Ethiopia
Legitimization of Eritrea
The letter signals that a future U.S. administration might rehabilitate Eritrea’s international image, despite allegations of crimes against humanity in Tigray.
Eritrea’s leverage grows
If Eritrea believes it has U.S. sympathy, it may escalate interference in Tigray or harden its stance on Red Sea access negotiations.
Isolation risk
Ethiopia, already under pressure from Western institutions, may find itself boxed diplomatically if Eritrea aligns more closely with the Trump-led U.S., Russia, or Gulf powers.
Meloni’s Visit: Italy’s Calculated Engagement
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s late July visit to Addis Ababa was no ordinary diplomatic stop. It was part of Italy’s Mattei Plan, a strategy to deepen ties with African nations not through aid, but through investment, mutual development, and migration control.
Why Italy came
Strategic migration buffer
Ethiopia is vital to reducing refugee flows toward Europe.
Energy and food diplomacy
With climate threats rising, Italy wants to help Ethiopia develop self-sufficiency in food and renewable energy.
Positioning against China
Italy seeks to counterbalance growing Chinese influence in Ethiopia’s infrastructure, telecom, and finance sectors.
What Ethiopia should recognize
Italy is not just offering money. It’s offering partnership. If used wisely, this could help Ethiopia build long-term stability and infrastructure while diversifying away from aid dependency and geopolitical gambling.
Internal Fractures: Tigray, the Red Sea, and the Looming Crisis
Ethiopia’s internal fragility is at the core of everything
Tigray power struggle
The ousting of Getachew Reda and the split within the TPLF has reopened the risk of civil war inside Tigray. Some rebel factions are reportedly backed by Eritrea.
Border tensions
Eritrea has mobilized troops near the border. Ethiopia has moved forces into the area. Officially, war is not declared. But unofficially, both sides are preparing.
The Red Sea obsession
Ethiopia’s insistence on access to the sea is strategic, but how it’s pursued will decide whether the region remains in peace or plunges into conflict.
What Ethiopia Must Do Before It’s Too Late
Here is a sober assessment of the path forward
Avoid War with Eritrea at All Costs
Ethiopia may be tempted to confront Eritrea militarily to secure sea access or punish interference in Tigray. But war would destroy the economy, trigger massive humanitarian displacement, and invite foreign intervention from Egypt, Gulf countries, or others.
Instead, Ethiopia should work through African Union mediated talks with Red Sea nations on port-sharing, trade corridors, and infrastructure co-investments.
Control the Tigray Crisis Now
The split in the TPLF must not evolve into a civil war. The federal government should avoid overmilitarization of the region, appoint a neutral and respected interim body to oversee elections in Tigray, and allow independent monitors to assess alleged abuses, both past and present, to build internal trust and international legitimacy.
Balance Foreign Relations: Italy, China, and the Gulf
Ethiopia must avoid the mistake of over-reliance on one bloc. Instead
With Italy and the EU
Deepen cooperation on green energy, food security, and migration
With China, push for more equitable investment terms, especially in telecom and rail
With UAE and Saudi Arabia, Expand trilateral economic zones, especially in agro-export and manufacturing
Rebuild International Trust
The image of Ethiopia, once seen as Africa’s rising star, is fading. The country must improve transparency in governance, empower institutions that support federalism and minority rights, and push for a Horn of Africa Red Sea Pact involving Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, and Ethiopia to settle access and trade issues multilaterally.
The Future: Risk or Renaissance
Ethiopia has three futures
Path One
Path of War
Description
War with Eritrea, unresolved Tigray conflict, rising inflation, and international isolation
Outcome
National collapse or state fragmentation
Path Two
Path of Diplomacy
Description
Red Sea negotiations, African Union mediation in Tigray, strategic alliances with Italy and Gulf
Outcome
Peace with growth and renewed global respect
Path Three
Path of Dependence
Description
Chasing foreign funding without reforms, growing Chinese debt, ignoring internal crises
Outcome
Slow decline into economic stagnation
Final Word
Ethiopia Must Choose Peace with Power. This is not 1998. The world is watching, and the stakes are higher. In a region plagued by coups, droughts, and global disinterest, Ethiopia remains a nation with unmatched history and unmatched potential.
To honor its past and protect its people, Ethiopia must think not like a desperate landlocked country but like a strategic African giant. That means peace, negotiation, balanced diplomacy, and internal reform.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
__
Support Borkena : https://borkena.com/subscribe-borkena/
Join our Telegram Channel : t.me/borkena
Like borkena on Facebook
Add your business to Ethiopian Business Listing / Ethiopian Business Directory Business Listing Toronto
Join the conversation. Follow us on X (Formerly Twitter) @zborkena to get the latest Ethiopian News updates regularly. Subscribe to YouTube channel To share information or for submission, send e-mail to info@borkena.com
“On July 30, 2025, Donald Trump sent a letter to Isaias Afwerki, calling for a new era of U.S.–Eritrean friendship based on mutual respect and truth. While Trump holds no formal office, his influence on U.S. foreign policy, especially if he returns to power in 2025, is significant.”
The last statement in the above paragraph reminded me of the story of a Japanese WWII solder that was persuaded to come out of the jungle he was (still fighting) hiding till in 1974, 30 years after the war ended…
The writer seems to have written this article (prophecy) during Biden presidency… or still is watching rerun TV news of yesteryear’s..
The established old term “international community” (aka the G7, 13% of global GDP) with 780 million population (9% of the world pop.) is no longer ‘international’.
BRICS on the other hand ( which Ethiopia is a member of) shares 27% of global GDP with 3.5 billion ( 55% ) of the wold population is more of an ‘international community’ by all measure.
Italy:
Yes, Italy’s concern and interest in Ethiopia is based on its ‘Yuge’ population explosion that scares the hell out of all of EU, but Italy more so due to its geographic proximity to Africa & its status as migration ‘gate of entry’ to Europe, is doing what it can even though being one of the poorest EU nation economically…with the 7th largest debt burden in Europe with $2.93 trillion (3 trillion) wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt).
USA:
US’s unexpected interest ‘out of the blue’ ( not so ) but very calculated, based on US’s recent defeat & surrender to the Yemeni ‘Ansar Allah’ fighter (aka “Houthis” ) so that they exempt US ships from their attack in Red sea area, which they still are hitting Israel in support of the Palestinians in GAZA.
Trump’s (State D.) rapprochement with Eritrea is just that, to get a hold of a strategic position (seeking to reestablish a military base it once had there) to be able to have some kind of influence across the Rd sea in Yemen as well as on Eritrea it self to control the Red sea in favor of Israel. I do not think Isaias Afwerki ( Eritrea) will fall for it… Time will tell.
Remember Portugal and Spain used to be the global Powers way back, look where they are now..they are in the group refereed in Europe as PIGS ( Portugal, Italy, Greece, & Spain) all former European ‘powers’, but the poorest (pigs) for a while.
BRICS is the the undisputed Global leader in waiting.
US & Europe are ( the new ‘PIGS’, (though their acronym does not match)) standing on one leg, especially Europe with no resources, and in feud with all the current great powers Russia, China, & US in its attempt in collapsing their economies using Trump’ TARIFF of 15% on top of $750 billion in US-energy cost & $ 600 billion in direct investment run by not the EU but by Trump-officials… (#1 they do not have that kind of huge-capital to send to the US #2 $250 billion/year in energy cost is not only too high, they do not use that much energy… what are they going to do with the excess US Oil & LNG? Sale it to whom?) … money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2025-07-28/analysis-eus-250-billion-per-year-spending-on-us-energy-is-unrealistic
(2) dw.com/en/why-the-eus-push-to-cut-russian-energy-ties-is-so-difficult/a-72454611
‘Tariff’ is not going to save US either… its TAX on its own US consumers…it just increasing the price of IMPORTED goods to the locals…
Trump knows that, but his original attempt was to lure foreign industries to the US, to build its manufacturing base… but for international industries the cost of operation in the US is too high ( that is why the US industries left US in the 1980 in the first place) Except for European industries who will find energy cost in the US being cheaper than in the EU new energy-configuration (unless EU returns back to the Russia Oil & Gas which is 5 or more times cheaper).
Even then, none of the US and Europe industries can compete with manufactures in BRICS nations , who enjoy cheaper energy, natural resources, & labor cost ( even with robotics playing part)…
Not a chance.
Even looking at the out comes of recent wars of post 2022, wars which the West very often use to solve economic problems… are not promising any more but a detriment. Russia alone has more nukes, more advanced & devastating Hypersonic weapons than any, & china is not far behind with advanced weaponry & advanced fighter jets…( which got noticed during the 2 days India & Pakistan flybys)…
There is only one way out for the West, Austerity!
Greece is better for it today, after their party ended a decade or so ago. So the West has a successful test-case to work on; it is not all gloom and doom, there is a light at the end of…. (aka ‘reality check’ or ‘coming down to Earth’.)
Be well.
Here is an economic and geopolitical analysis that not only supports but explain in details the US, China, Russia, EU, and BRICS current stance and happenings…
Link = youtube.com/watch?v=hoo1A6LJRkM
To further elaborate my earlier mention of India & Pakistan Air-skirmish… a few weeks ago , the Chinese J-10 fighter Jet & Chinese Air-defense system, were the topic of conversation claimed to have ended the skirmish in Pakistanis favor (that used the Chinese systems).
Now, the J-10 is the basic or earlier version of the ‘J’ fighter-jet series, the J-50 being the latest version that is in ‘Test’-mode.
There was an article came out yesterday, a Chinese J-20 flew over Japan and South Korea several times and NO ONE noticed it.
Mind you USA has 120 military bases in the tiny Japan alone (US officially list 23). There are 20 or more in South Korea… Yet none of the Radar installations picked up the J-20 signal flying over… think of all the others in between J-20 & J-50, new ones in the future will cris-cross the Western sky’s ( like the Chinese ‘balloon’, Biden shoot down East coast USA) no one will notice they were there… (‘catch potato’).
msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-claims-its-j-20-stealth-fighter-flew-near-japan-undetected/ar-AA1JB91d
The world is changing & fast, except for those captured by ‘tribe’ mined today’s (eat while you can) ‘elites’.
Be well.
‘Panic and production cuts at Pentagon suppliers as China tightens exports’
Link = youtube.com/watch?v=mAyMVr2vorU
This is good news for Europe, they have to use sticks to fight each other (‘European value’) (once the EU collapse, in a few years time) & the US, to curb its war-culture and help it pay down the -$37 trillion ‘war-debt’ it amassed from a mere $16 billion 1930.
thebalancemoney.com/national-debt-by-year-compared-to-gdp-and-major-events-3306287
Einar Tangen: ‘Economic Tsunami Is Now Unavoidable’ @ Prof. Glenn Diesen
Link = youtube.com/watch?v=L0OmFP-2zus
Be well.
‘US Dollar DEVALUATION: Brace Yourself – A Global Currency Collapse Is Coming’
link = youtube.com/watch?v=_aEfz4KnwyQ
Gold & silver… any one?
‘Financial Panic Begins: Bessent’s Debt Auctions GONE BAD As U.S. PUNISHES GOLD Imports”
link = youtube.com/watch?v=FTjDVKzAfGE
The ‘dumb & dumber’ show on the world stage continues…till it hits the WALL.
Be well.