ENG. Abdi Ali Barkhad
Hargeisa, Somaliland
The relationship between Ethiopia and Somaliland is deeply rooted in history and shaped by intricate layers of regional politics and global alliances. Despite clear mutual interests, the partnership remains stalled, primarily due to unresolved strategic concerns and the broader international context—particularly Ethiopia’s recent alignment with the BRICS group.
At the center of the current impasse lies the delay in formalizing the long-anticipated Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the two parties. This agreement was expected to open pathways for cooperation in trade, security, and maritime access, yet little tangible progress has been made. Both Ethiopia and Somaliland have demonstrated hesitancy, albeit for different reasons, revealing underlying tensions that demand closer examination.
Ethiopia’s BRICS Alignment and Geopolitical Caution
Ethiopia’s entry into BRICS, an economic and political bloc that includes China, Russia, India, Brazil, and South Africa- has significantly influenced its foreign policy orientation. While BRICS membership offers Ethiopia new avenues for economic engagement and geopolitical leverage, it also imposes constraints, particularly with respect to sensitive issues such as Somaliland’s quest for recognition.
China, a dominant force within BRICS and one of Ethiopia’s largest economic partners, staunchly opposes any form of recognition for Taiwan and, by extension, any precedent that might support Somaliland’s similar aspirations. Ethiopia, aware of Beijing’s position, has been cautious not to take any overt steps that could be interpreted as supporting Somaliland’s independence. Full recognition or even the construction of a naval base in Berbera could trigger diplomatic repercussions, not only from China but from other global players closely observing the Horn of Africa.
Somaliland’s Diplomatic Calculus and Taiwan Ties
On the other side, Somaliland has demonstrated a consistent and strategic alignment with Taiwan, an act of diplomatic assertiveness that has won it recognition and support from like-minded partners but has also complicated its dealings with countries like Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s reluctance to move forward with the MoU can partly be attributed to Somaliland’s unwavering commitment to this partnership, which indirectly places Addis Ababa in a diplomatically awkward position given Beijing’s sensitivities.
Furthermore, Somaliland’s firm stance on maintaining its independent diplomatic course may be perceived by some in Addis Ababa as a signal of limited flexibility, an impression that could inhibit deeper engagement unless addressed through renewed dialogue and confidence-building.
A Diplomatic Balancing Act with Between BRICS and the West
Ethiopia now finds itself at a diplomatic crossroads. As it seeks to deepen economic ties with BRICS countries, it must also sustain long-standing relationships with Western powers, including the United States and European Union—both of which remain influential in Ethiopia’s development agenda. These two axes, East and West, often diverge on key issues, including human rights, military presence in the Red Sea, and territorial recognition.
This dual engagement strategy presents a delicate balancing act. For Ethiopia, maintaining access to the Red Sea is a critical strategic priority. In the absence of access through Eritrea or Djibouti under favorable terms, Somaliland presents a viable alternative. Yet, embracing this path risks upsetting regional dynamics and its diplomatic ties, particularly with the failed state of Somalia, which vehemently opposes any agreement that implies Somaliland’s de jure sovereignty.
Strategic Engagement over Stagnation
Despite these challenges, the Ethiopia-Somaliland relationship holds substantial potential. Beyond strategic access, both entities share a long-standing historical relationship grounded in mutual respect and security cooperation. The urgency to secure alternative maritime routes for economic sustainability may yet compel Ethiopia to adopt a more assertive posture in its engagement with Somaliland.
However, this must be approached carefully. Open conflict with Eritrea over potential port agreements, or increased pressure from Somalia and its allies, could further destabilize the already fragile Horn of Africa. Therefore, Ethiopia must work to harmonize its BRICS orientation with a pragmatic and forward-thinking regional policy that acknowledges Somaliland’s strategic value.
Conclusion
The Ethiopia-Somaliland relationship must move beyond hesitation and ambiguity. Both sides need to prioritize constructive engagement grounded in mutual benefit, regional stability, and long-term strategic vision. For Ethiopia, this means navigating the pressures of BRICS alignment without compromising its national interests in maritime access and regional influence. For Somaliland, it means continuing to assert its sovereign aspirations while showing diplomatic flexibility to secure meaningful partnerships.
Revitalizing the stalled MoU negotiations could be the first step toward unlocking this partnership’s full potential. If approached with mutual respect and strategic clarity, Ethiopia and Somaliland could set a precedent for cooperation in one of the world’s most geopolitically sensitive regions, offering a rare example of pragmatism and regional leadership in the Horn of Africa.
Engineer Abdi Ali Barkhad is a senior consultant. He has also studied international diplomacy and is a political analyst and writer known for his detailed commentary on the politics of the Horn of Africa and international relations. He has published numerous articles analysing current policies in the region and is a strong supporter of the cause of the Republic of Somaliland. He can be reached at:tra50526@gmail.com
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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