The Fall of Abiy and His PP Is Certain – But Is Fano Ready to Rise? 

Why Fano’s Survival Depends on Strategy, Not Speed. Do not have to Burn the House You Want to Inherit!!

By  Habte H. 

In the shifting sands of Ethiopian politics, few movements have captured national imagination like Amhara Fano. Once loosely organized and locally rooted, Fano has grown into a formidable force – one that has pushed back against government offensives, seized territories, and inspired countless youth with its resilience and clarity of purpose. But even at the height of its strength, Fano now faces a strategic choice that could define its legacy: to fight for immediate victory – or prepare wisely for sustainable power.

Let us be honest – Fano has achieved what many believed was impossible. Against an overwhelmingly armed government, it has marched miles – both literally and symbolically – toward the centre of power. While bullets and propaganda have flown, Fano has held its ground, building not just military gains but political relevance.

And that is exactly what the ruling Prosperity Party (PP) fears.

A Cornered Regime and the Dangerous Cost of Desperation

The government is no longer simply defending its authority. It is panicking. PP is using everything in its arsenal – drones, alliances, disinformation, and extrajudicial crackdowns – just to stay afloat. But this reckless desperation comes at a devastating cost: lives are being lost on both sides, and the flames of a wider civil war are licking at the nation’s heels.

Fano must not fall for the bait. Now is the time for strategy, not speed. The signs of PP’s downfall are already written across the country’s political walls. The wise move now is not to rush, but to preserve fighters, protect civilians, and prepare for a transition – one that may not be too far off.

Why PP Will Fall – And Sooner Than Expected?

A failing regime does not collapse all at once – it erodes from within, until even its loudest defenders begin to whisper doubt. PP has entered this phase. Here is why:

1. Unprecedented Public Hatred

In Ethiopia’s modern political history, no ruling party, and no leader like Abiy, has faced as much public loathing as PP and its leadership. From urban centers to rural heartlands, across ethnic lines and class divides, the sentiment is the same: “Enough.” Even under the Derg, even in the final years of EPRDF, there was space for negotiated legitimacy. Not with PP. The anger is raw, deep, and irreversible.

2. An Economy in Freefall

Inflation, joblessness, collapsing public services – the economic grievances have reached a boiling point. Families cannot feed their children, civil servants have not been paid for months, and young people see no future under this regime. And when economic despair meets political repression, the result is inevitable: mass defiance.

3. A Regime That Represses to Survive

What PP lacks in public support; it tries to make up with brute force. Day by day, arbitrary killings, surveillance, imprisonment, and fear mongering are increasing. But this strategy of terror is backfiring. People are no longer afraid – they are angry. And when a population loses its fear, power shifts.

4. Dangerous Regional Overreach

While PP is struggling to govern at home, it is also stretching its military muscle abroad – with Eritrea, Djibouti, (possibly Sudan & Egypt), and others. This is not just geopolitical adventurism. It is desperation. A regime trying to prove relevance outside its borders because it has lost credibility within. But it is also a dangerous gamble, one that could isolate Ethiopia and hasten PP’s collapse.

What Fano Must Do Now: Think Power, Not Just Protest

So, what should Fano do now? The impulse to press forward is understandable – but true victory lies in long-term thinking, not tactical wins.

Therefore, the Fano must:

• Preserve its fighters and minimize casualties, knowing the war is not just on the battlefield but for the future of governance.
• Strengthen internal unity. Civil wars do not just begin with governments. They often start when resistance movements splinter. Now is the time for reconciliation, coordination, and clarity.
• Develop a real political vision: What comes after PP? How will Fano govern a diverse and fragmented nation? How will it win not just a war, but the peace?
• Build relationships with local and regional actors. Fano cannot win in isolation. It must build trust with civil society, diaspora communities, religious leaders, and other national movements.

A Final Word: Do not Burn the House You Want to Inherit

The fall of the PP is almost certain. But the manner in which it falls – and what rises after – will determine Ethiopia’s fate. Fano has shown incredible courage and discipline. Now it must show strategic discipline. This is not the time to rush into Addis in a blaze of anger. This is the time to organize, strategize, and humanize the struggle. 

To fight for justice is noble. But to prepare for leadership – that is revolutionary!!  Let the world see a new kind of resistance. One that not only survives the war but wins the future.

Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com      

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