Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
By Mohamud A. Ahmed – Cagaweyne
“You can shift allegiances and realign alliances, but history – when true – does not forget its authors.”
As the ceremonial echoes of Eritrea’s Independence Day faded into the smoke of revisionist rhetoric, President Isaias Afwerki once again took to the podium – not to inspire, but to intoxicate. What should have been a moment of national pride morphed into a manifesto of menace, where grievance masqueraded as governance and truth was mutilated by the sharp blade of oratory.
From Nairobi’s Jomo Kenyatta Airport to the alleyways of Asmara, a singular anxiety lingered: Are Eritrea and Ethiopia sleepwalking into the ashes of what they once built? What began in 2018 with handshakes and hope is now haunted by the specter of hostile speeches and the language of looming war.
Where War is a Habit: The Terminal Philosophy of President Isaias
President Isaias does not speak; he performs autopsies on peace. For over thirty years, his rhetoric has never known tranquility. His Independence Day address was not a celebration – it was a eulogy, not for the colonizer’s past, but for the future he continues to sabotage.
He claimed Ethiopia’s desire for Red Sea access was “hunger wrapped in ambition.” But hunger, when driven by dignity, is not a threat – it is a need for survival. Afwerki framed Ethiopia’s economic corridor dreams as zero-sum aggression. Yet mathematically, cooperation is not subtraction – it is multiplication. Port cities like Assab and Massawa could be arteries of African integration, but Afwerki prefers trench lines to trade routes.
He has not merely inverted history – he has imprisoned it. His war-tinted memory poisons diplomacy with suspicion. He did not just watch the war in Tigray; he choreographed it. His soldiers crossed not only borders but moral thresholds. The archives of Amnesty International and the UN bear testimony to Eritrea’s complicity. But in Isaias’s arithmetic, truth is subtracted, deception is multiplied, and hope is reduced to zero.
The Weaponization of Identity: Oromummaa on Trial
Perhaps the most cynical twist in Afwerki’s diatribe was the criminalization of “Oromummaa” – a cultural identity slandered as political extremism. He disguised the venom with nuance, claiming it doesn’t represent the Oromo people. But invoking it at all – within a framework of blame – was deliberate.
To equate cultural identity with political sabotage is to weaponize belonging. Oromummaa is no more dangerous than Eritrean nationalism or Amhara pride. What’s dangerous is the distortion. Afwerki and his ideological acolytes don’t fear Oromummaa – they fear pluralism. They fear the algebra of unity, where cultural identity plus equal opportunity equals a democratic federation.
From 2018 to the Edge: The Broken Bridge Between Asmara and Addis
The year 2018 was a golden glimpse into the possible. Afwerki and Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed embraced in Asmara. The Nobel Committee toasted. Streets sang. Borders softened. But this chapter now risks being rewritten as a footnote – a mirage of peace devoured by the wolves of mistrust.
Afwerki’s recent accusations against Ethiopia’s Prosperity Party were not caution – they were confrontation. His tone turned the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam from an infrastructure marvel into a supposed regional threat. He reduced federalism to fiction, labeling it a foreign invention. But federalism, however flawed, held Ethiopia together longer than any other system in modern history. Its death would be his delight.
The Paradox of Dr. Abiy: Stoic Restraint, Strategic Silence
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, by contrast, has chosen patience – a stoic gamble in a region where provocation is currency. While Afwerki bellows, Abiy breathes. While others draft a war, he pursues water. And while foes provoke, he prioritizes productivity.
The GERD dam, the beautification of cities, the dismantling of monopolies – these are not symptoms of conquest. They are acts of national resurrection. Though marred by conflict and internal crisis, Abiy’s leadership still reflects a trajectory worth acknowledging. His restraint in the face of Afwerki’s antagonism is not passivity – it is maturity. It is a refusal to ignite a war engineered for ego.
The Horn’s Harrowing Choice: Legacy or Ruin?
We stand at a haunting junction. The Horn of Africa – a region long defined by its resilience – is now flirting with regression. The choice is brutally binary: build on peace or burn it to the ground.
Will the leaders of this region construct corridors of cooperation or fall into the crater of another ethnic or state-based catastrophe? Will Isaias Afwerki be remembered as a liberator of a nation or a saboteur of a continent?
“History does not merely punish the imprudent – it buries their legacies beneath ashes of regret.” — Cagaweyne
To the people of Eritrea: Your independence was earned in blood; your future should not be traded for one man’s eternal trench. To Ethiopians: Your diversity is not your danger – it is your design. Celebrate it. Protect it. Invest in it.
Final Word: The Horn Must Speak Before the Ashes Speak for Us
In every generation, a moment arrives when silence becomes betrayal. This is that moment. Intellectuals, spiritual leaders, youth, and seasoned statesmen alike must rise – not as opposition, not as allies, but as guardians of truth. Afwerki’s speech was not just a political document—it was a historical warning.
Eritrea and Ethiopia are not enemies. They are neighbors bound by shared scars and sacred potential. Let no tyrant rewrite that bond in bullets. Let no revisionist diminish that hope in hollow hymns to sovereignty.
We must say it plainly:
War is not tradition. It is a trauma.
Conflict is not culture. It is collapsing.
And pride, when untethered from peace, becomes a prelude to the grave.
“Let history record that we warned, not we wept.”
Mohamud A. Ahmed – Cagaweyne – Political Analyst, Columnist, Researcher | Greenlight Advisors Group. He can can be reached at : +25190064464
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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Preach Brother Mohamud, preach! Talk that talk!!! Tell’em as it is.
I was not surprised by the speech of the aging president. I was amazed but not surprised. That is how commies from the 1960’s and their deacons/darasaas talk. They know and love to coin up terms to denigrate groups of noble people and they never get tired of starting bloody and destructive conflicts. They are irreparable arsonists. They are peerless in the arts of feeding on the raw emotions of the gullible. I have an inviolable rule not to meddle in the internal affairs of any Horn of African country but I will write a word or two when a leader does so. This same leader in many occasions before had said that the history of the old country is a distorted one and his country’s history is a spotless. By extension, he meant Oromos, Tigres, Amharas, Afars, Somalis, Gambelas, Beni’s and 80 other noble people in Ethiopia are all distorted people and should be torched to smithereens. But I get a kick out of that ‘uni-polar’ thing he makes a fool of himself talking. It is hilarious.
I am sure we all heard this or said it ourselves, at one time or another… “…I am going to tell my father & he is going to come and beat your father up…”
It is always said, Our family is better than…, our car newer than, our house bigger than, my father etc… it is a universal human condition to think in that fashion ( “Keeping up with the Joneses”).
Whatever anyone say or do, expresses the same, not anyone else; that happen to be in the vicinity.
Getting annoyed/excited by someone’s words, is not different than ‘slavery’; (the switch and light bulb)
All that being said, Credit must be given where credit is due!
The Eritrean Independence day celebration around the world was spectacular & very moving to some among us, to say the list ( I always like their songs (tunes) from childhood whiteout knowing the words, & I was moving with them, while watching the videos from different locations, with a little bit of mixed-emotion, in my mind they are part of Ethiopia ( as I remember it)) the comradery and togetherness of the people across the board was a glaring evidence of what President Isaias Afwerki was able to achieve, by pulling his people together as ONE
.
Isaias Afwerki took power the same time TPLF took power in what reamed of Ethiopia since, and Isaias succeeded in uniting his people regardless of where they live worldwide, while TPLF is long gone & buried in the PRISON CAGE itself created; after making a mess of our greater Ethiopian society.
I am sad they are on the ‘other-side” the imaginary wall, but I am happy that they are happy & well, and wish them all the success!
After all they are still our brothers and sisters, our people!
“We cannot fix yesterday, but we can create tomorrow.”
Happy independent day !!!
youtube.com/watch?v=kAMyw73c8Ek
Be well.