By: Habte H.
There is a simple but powerful law that governs our universe: nature always follows its course – in medicine they call it the natural history of a disease. You can ignore it, deny it, or even fight it – but you will never defeat it. In Ethiopia today, today Abiy faces not just armed opposition but a far greater and more relentless force – the law of inevitable consequences.
Abiy seems naïve enough to believe that he can sustain endless wars and still maintain control, as he once said ለ1000 ዓመታት ልትዋጋኝ ትችላለህ ግን አታሸንፈኝም።- to mean, you may fight for a thousand years, but you will never defeat me. But reality is knocking at his door, harder each day. Civil wars are not fought in isolation from the economy, society, or the basic functions that keep a nation alive. You may convince your inner circle that this war is necessary, but you cannot convince the empty stomachs in households, the unpaid professionals, and the exhausted civil servants struggling to survive.
The recent nationwide strike by Ethiopian doctors was not a mere labor dispute – it was a clear sign that the country has crossed a dangerous tipping point. These are not political agitators or rebel fighters; these are highly trained professionals; the very people society depends on to keep its health system afloat. For years, they endured poor working conditions, delayed payments, and government indifference. But even the most disciplined and patient among us have limits. When healers are forced to take to the streets, it is a loud alarm that something is deeply broken.
And make no mistake – this is just the beginning. The doctors’ strike is the first major tremor of a much larger quake. Teachers, engineers, civil servants, and other critical workforce sectors will inevitably follow. Why? Because once one group breaks the silence, others find the courage to raise their voices too. It is the natural flow of social resistance; once the dam cracks, the flood is unstoppable.
Abiy may believe that with enough military might and propaganda, he can weather this storm. But even the most authoritarian regimes cannot control the invisible forces of a collapsing economy and a frustrated society. You cannot govern people whose basic needs are unmet. You cannot expect loyalty from a workforce whose dignity has been stripped away.
War is expensive – far more than the government’s current economic reality can sustain. How long can you keep financing military operations while public hospitals lack medicines, schools remain underfunded, and civil servants go unpaid? The truth is you can’t afford this war even for a few more months without pushing the nation into complete economic collapse.
At this point, there is only one viable option left – stop the war at any cost, even if it means sacrificing political power. True leadership is not measured by how long you hold onto power, but by the courage you show in making the right decisions, even when they are difficult. Continuing this war will not degrade the rebels as you might hope – it will only degrade the country and your own legacy.
Respond to the demands of the opposition not through arrogance or suppression, but with meaningful dialogue that prevents the disintegration of Ethiopia’s social fabric. Peace does not mean surrender; it means having the wisdom to understand when the cost of conflict outweighs any conceivable gain.
Nature has already set its course. Economic pressure will intensify, social unrest will grow, and eventually, no government – no matter how forceful – can stand against the tidal wave of a nation pushed beyond its limits. The time to act is now, before nature’s inevitable judgment brings a conclusion far harsher than any political compromise could.
In the end, history will remember not the wars you fought, but the peace you failed – or dared – to make.
Choose peace before it is too late.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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I do agree with your analysis eventhough I am not a sympathizer of “FANO ” leadership. The solution is to pacify a roaring public storm, Abey Ahmed has to appeal to Gulf Arab states for emergency loans instead of sending their’s drones to suppress an urban civil insurrection .
I hate Abiy because he is not pure Oromo or genuine part Oromo like Emperor Haile, Menelik, Dinegde, Gobana, Jagama, Aragay, Taytu and the 56 million Oromos. That is why I hate all Oromos including myself. Above all, I hate that thing called Ethiopia. Would somebody in Minnesota, Toronto, LA, Utah, Tennessee, Michigan, Oslo and Down Under destroy this thing I hate with passion called Ethiopia? Please!!! My longtime homeboy Wedi Afo from Piccola Roma calls it a distorted country made up of distorted people and history. Until you destroy it for me, none of will be allowed to utter the word ‘Ethiopia’ around me.