Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
By Gezahegn Engida
The very framing of this question may raise eyebrows-but bear with me. Allow me to make my case.
Let us pause and reflect. I argue that had we, in the midst of our hatred-fueled revolutionary fervor and our loathing of the so-called “reactionary, absolutist autocracy,” summoned the intellectual courage to question our assumptions, challenge our certainties, and explore uncomfortable-yet plausible-scenarios, we might have found ourselves in a very different place today.
If only we had dared to ask the “what if” questions back then:
What if, despite our good intentions, we end up installing a regime far more brutal and monstrous than the imperial one we were fighting to overthrow?
What if-given the turmoil in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa; the geopolitical rivalry between superpowers playing out in our region, where local actors are mere pawns; the long-standing scheming of Arab states, particularly Egypt, to oust Ethiopia from the Red Sea; the Soviet-backed militarization of Siad Barre and his domestic proxies-what if our internal divisions led to the sudden collapse of the regime and the creation of a power vacuum that would threaten the very survival of Ethiopia itself?
Sadly, our intellectual culture-then and now-has been inhospitable to dissenting voices, let alone to rigorous deliberation or strategic foresight. We behaved like a herd of migrating wildebeests: singularly focused on forward motion, blind to the predators lying in wait at every watering hole. Why did we not consider the possibility that we might be wrong? Why did we not imagine worse outcomes?
The answer, unfortunately, is simple. Despite 50 years of hindsight, we have behaved-and continue to behave-like an unthinking herd, devoid of deep reflection or complex reasoning.
In place of the imperial regime, we ended up with Mengistu’s 17-year reign of terror-a brutal military dictatorship. If not by direct action, then by omission and intellectual laziness, we allowed it to happen. The same narrow-minded, complacent intellectual culture blinded us during later transitions as well. When we mobilized to unseat the despised EPRDF/Woyane regime, we again failed to ask whether the successor could be even worse. And so we ended up with Abiy Ahmed’s regime, now wreaking its own brand of devastation.
Throughout all three major political transitions-from imperial absolutism to military dictatorship, from Mengistu to EPRDF, and from EPRDF to Abiy’s so-called prosperity party-Ethiopian political intellectuals have remained fixated on internal power struggles, while paying little to no attention to external geopolitical developments.
During the first transition, they willfully ignored the Arab states’ longstanding goal to eject Ethiopia from the Red Sea, the Soviet arming of Siad Barre, and the creation of proxy forces under the banner of Eritrean, Oromo, Somali, and Tigrayan secessionism. They failed to anticipate the U.S. arms embargo that followed the monarchy’s fall.
During the second transition, they ignored the rise of radical political Islam in the region and the profound implications of the Soviet Union’s collapse and the emergence of a unipolar world order.
And during the most recent transition-from EPRDF to Abiy-they remained blind to the shifting geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East, the rise of China as a challenger to U.S. dominance, and the emergence of regional middle powers. They also failed to grasp the magnitude of Egypt’s
hostility in the wake of Ethiopia’s construction of the GERD.
In each case, regime change in Ethiopia was influenced, if not directly shaped, by broader geopolitical and strategic realignments-in the Horn, in the Middle East, and among global powers. Any future attempt at armed or political struggle-even the mere hope for change-must be accompanied, or better yet, preceded by a sober, strategic evaluation of these larger forces. So far, we have failed miserably on this front.
As I write this, Egypt is actively coordinating with Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, and Sudan to encircle Ethiopia. It is seeking local proxies to incite ongoing internal instability. Our legitimate disgust with Abiy and his regime must not blind us to these external threats. We cannot afford to repeat the same grave mistakes.
Indeed, our collective failure to see the bigger picture has, over three regime transitions, helped undermine Ethiopia-much to the delight of those who wish to see it erased from the map.
A clear indicator of our country’s decline is the widespread nostalgia for previous regimes. By nearly every measure-food security, personal safety, rule of law, stability, diplomatic leverage, and military preparedness-each successive regime has been worse than the one before. That is a sign of a nation in retreat. That is where we are. That is where we’re headed.
We must change course. Our enemies-both near and far-are ready to celebrate our destruction through mutual slaughter.
But it doesn’t have to be this way. We can think differently. We must think differently. At the very least, we must stop repeating the same strategic mistakes. We may not get another chance. We must commit to keeping our common vessel-Ethiopia-afloat.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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