By Addissu Admas
Currently, the government of PM Abiy Ahmed is engaged in several conflicts. And the tension in the country is unbearably pervasive. Apart from the active conflicts in Amhara and Oromia regions, there are constant small-scale skirmishes in every other Killil. Internal land travels have become so hazardous that most Ethiopians fear venturing outside their immediate vicinity. In point of fact, Ethiopia is already in a state of war.
What is even more perplexing is that another far bigger war is in the planning, or at least all indications seem to suggest there will be one if we are to believe the rumor mill. Despite the PM’s assertion to the contrary [See Aljazeera, March 20, 2025], analysts of differing persuasions believe that it is either possible or even inevitable. I contend that it needs to be neither. It should not be possible because it would go against every reasonable calculation on every front. Militarily speaking, the EDF (the Ethiopian Defense Force) has already committed a very large portion of its force to the Amhara region, and perhaps to a lesser degree to the Oromia region. Fano and OLA (Oromo Liberation Army) have turned themselves into the bitterest enemies of Abiy Ahmed’s government. This means that they will continue to fight either until most of their goals are met, or more likely, until they succeed in overthrowing the federal government and the ruling party.
Since the inception of the ELF (Eritrean Liberation Front) in 1960, there have been countless liberation fronts and armed political parties in Ethiopia. All those which disappeared or went into exile did so not because they were actively eradicated by the central government, but mainly because of their own internal dissensions and divisions. The ones which managed their internal discords effectively, adapted and persisted, did not only not succumb to the onslaught of the central government, but were able to prevail in the end to at least achieve their stated goals. The message should be obvious: the current armed opposition groups cannot be eradicated nor permanently subdued neither by the EDF nor by any other power the PM has perhaps in mind of creating. The territories of Amhara and Oromia are each on their own bigger than most countries in the world! They are inhabited each by a large population that could easily rank among the most populated countries. How can the federal government of Ethiopia with its economic resources at a historic low, overextended by so many development projects, and burdened by so many problems of various nature, plan to eradicate these two major armed groups and start a far bigger one at the same time?
Before we even consider the Eritrean question, Tigray’s current state of affairs and the kind of resolution it will have plays a most important role, not only in the possible war against Eritrea, but also in the very continuation of Ethiopia as a functional state.
If we are to believe the filtered news we are getting, Tigray is today essentially divided in at least three contending factions: The TPLF’s old party (originally inspired by the Albanian model) headed by Debretsion, still aiming at preserving its hegemony over all Tigray. The other TPLF faction, which until recently was headed by Getachew Reda and now by Lt Gen. Tadesse Worede Tesfay, whose agenda is, if we are to take it at face value, the implementation of the Pretoria and Nairobi agreements. It therefore does not stand for any particular political program other than the one dictated by the government of PM Abiy. And thirdly, the self-styled Salsawi Woyane which is advocating to secede from Ethiopia like Eritrea. As one can clearly see, Tigray on her own has more problems than most African countries!
What we have today in Ethiopia is a country held together by a tenuous thread that threatens to snap at any moment. Yet, there is a Negarit pounding for another, far more destructive war to reclaim a territory that could be had peacefully.
PM Abiy, before declaring a national mobilization, needs to consider a few impending possibilities. Amhara Fano are so bitterly opposed to his government, that they are not averse to ally themselves with any power that is willing to help them. That means Eritrea or any other nation having its own design for the country. The same is true of Debretsion’s faction. Despite the Badme war and its humiliating end, his party would gladly ally itself with Isaias Afewerki to end Abiy’s rule. Meanwhile, OLA may work hard to undermine the central government’s effort to organize a major campaign against Eritrea.
The kind of war against Eritrea that could have a reasonable chance of succeeding, i.e. taking Assab and the adjoining hinterland that leads to it, could only happen if several conditions are present. First of all, Ethiopia should be completely united, meaning no armed group would be operating against the EDF, or better yet would cease to exist; second, the economy would be so strong that it could afford a vast campaign, and finally there would be an overwhelming consensus that regaining Assab and a piece of the Red Sea coastline land is vitally necessary for the country. In other words, these three fundamental conditions must take place contemporaneously for such a venture to even begin. Naturally, these conditions do not exist, and it is very unlikely that they will come together in the foreseeable future.
I believe that Ethiopia, a nation of some 120 million people, more than deserves to possess a stretch of the Red Sea coastline land for both commercial and security reasons. The country is today landlocked because of the insatiable greed of colonialism. Just by looking at the map, one could never fail to deduce that some malicious design was at work in dividing a country in such a way. Nevertheless, however unjust the partition of our lands may be, any violent method to reclaim a piece of Eritrea may lead to an even more disastrous outcome.
PM Abiy, if the reports are accurate, was willing to make very consequential concessions to Somaliland for a stretch of her coastline. Among these were a stake in the Ethiopian Airlines and recognition of its statehood. Can’t similar, perhaps even more enticing offers be made to Eritrea for a piece of her southern coastline? I believe that both Eritrea and Ethiopia will benefit immensely if both choose peace to resolve this perennial issue.
The consequences of a war against Eritrea would be more than devastating. Eritrea under Isaias Afewerki will become unbowed. Even if a frontal war will be hard for her to sustain for long, her people will easily revert to guerilla warfare. Beginning thus another cycle of unwinnable asymmetrical war.
It is not unthinkable that Eritrea could be already working secretly with Fano, Debretsion’s faction and (why not) even Salsay Woyane to effectively repel any form of campaign the federal government may attempt. Let’s not also forget that all three major powers in the strategic play of the region, i.e. the Eritrean Defense Force, Debretsion’s TPLF and Fano would have the calculated support of Egypt, the SAF (Sudanese Armed Forces) headed by Gen. Abdel Fattah al Burhan. Together with a refractory OLA ever ready to overthrow the government of Abiy Ahmed, we would be witnessing not only the most devastating war ever waged on Ethiopian soil, but the effective end of a nation that has taken centuries to build.
PM Abiy should choose the peaceful solution not only because peace is to be preferred as a matter of moral principle, but also because it is the pragmatic and rational choice. Ethical imperative may command that human lives must not be destroyed when peaceable alternatives are at hand. Political pragmatism advises that no war should be waged when the calculus indicates defeat or disarray. My fervent hope is that PM Abiy is not speaking out of both sides of the mouth. He needs to understand, and I am sure it must be a constant in his mind, that if Ethiopia starts this war, she will crumble into at least half a dozen failed states.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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A well composed and identified Ethiopia’s political faults lines article. It’s pragmatic political solutions is dynamic. Abey Ahmed political advisors should take it as a reference points. What is dangerous in our time is , a political leaders inspired by self delusion wage a devastating war which ruins a nation to total collapse.