Metta-Alem Sinishaw, Washington, DC
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The sudden rhetoric about access to sea has angered Ethiopian neighbors, especially Eritrea. The main cause of the Ethio-Eritrean conflict stems from the lack of an institutional, peaceful, and negotiated outcome to the Eritrean war of independence. Since then, access to the sea has been Ethiopia’s prime preoccupation. Eritrea and Ethiopia may have been separated, but not yet divorced, suggesting that Ethiopia’s quest is legitimate, genuine, and real and the onus of its realization lies on the new generation.
Great power competition in the Red Sea can be examined through an economic-security nexus. Maritime security is the single most dominant shared objective of global and regional powers. The war on Gaza and the reaction of Iran and its proxies are posing intense security threats along the Red Sea shipping lanes. Contradictory interests among powers and overlapping alliances proliferate violent conflicts in the Horn. Powers pursue various strategies to project power and secure the Red Sea maritime navigation zone.
The scramble for influence has changed the Horn of Africa’s political landscape. Multipolarity has left the Horn at the mercy of the Gulf and other emerging powers. Rivalry between Saudi and the Emirates has fueled the Sudanese civil war, forced Ethiopia and Eritrea to align with opposing forces in Sudan, and a possible extended war between themselves. Ethiopia’s partnership with Emirates and penetration into Somaliland urged Türkiye, Qatar, and Iran to counter the growing influence of Gulf Royals. Egypt worries that access to the Red Sea will embolden Ethiopia and undermine its influence, and become closer to Saudi, Qatar and Iran to counterbalance the Emirates and Türkiye in Ethiopia and Somalia, respectively.
In the face of increasing interconnectedness, it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to resolve Ethiopian predicaments exclusively from within. Ethiopian political actors must identify dominant national strategic interests and align with those of powers to take advantage of opportunities. However, protracted instability and diminishing regional standing suggest that the center could collapse before the peripheral advance.
The Prosperity Party (PP) may have both pushing and pulling factors to beat nationalistic drums and exploit the legit cause to its advantage. PP’s inability to suppress insurgencies and circumvent accountability are pushing factors. Its desire to manipulate the 2026 election, consolidate power, and regain its lost regional stature could be pulling factors for its increased war rhetoric.
If ignited, the Ethio-Eritrean war would overlap on three layers of proxies. First, the alignment of TPLF factions with the Eritrean and Ethiopian governments represent the first proxy. Second, Ethiopia and Eritrea are the client states of Saudi and Emirates, respectively and thus the Ethio-Eritrean war is an
extended proxy war from Sudan. Third, Emirates and Saudi broad alignment to the Western and Eastern blocks, respectively, would add another layer of proxy. Actors have varied interests and capacities, making the scope, intensity, duration, and outcome of the war highly unpredictable.
If Ethiopia succeeds in securing access to the Red Sea, it will strengthen its security, accelerate its development, and become an attractive partner for regional stability. However, Eritrea, Egypt, and Saudi have aligned to deter more Emirates’s indirect penetration into the Red Sea rather than to curtail Ethiopia.
Ethiopian political actors must reexamine the dynamic geopolitical calculus and avoid unprovoked war at all costs, the failure of which could only accelerate the journey towards disintegration. Neither IGAD nor the AU would be effective mediators currently, due to perceived conflict of interest of the leadership of both institutions. The international community is the only viable option that could pressurize both countries and their allies to avoid the looming war. If ignited, the war will only exacerbate the countries’ dire conditions, aggravate human suffering, and relegate both countries back to the Stone Age.
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It’s easy for you to wish for war while you are perched in DC, sipping on US coffee, isn’t it? To you, war might be an entertainment, but, to the poor in Ethiopia, it is death.