By: Habte H.
When Abiy Ahmed received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, the world celebrated Ethiopia’s apparent democratic awakening. Today, that promise lies in ruins – replaced by a disturbing pattern of state-orchestrated demonstrations that reveal more about the regime’s fragility than its strength. The recent spectacle in Sheger City, where crowds were forcibly mobilized to chant slogans of support, was not a show of national unity but the death rattle of a regime losing its grip on power. As Václav Havel once observed, “The more a regime is afraid of the people, the more it tries to control them.”
Abiy’s dramatic fall from “grace” has been particularly stark in Oromia, where early support has evaporated amid brutal crackdowns on dissent. The mass arrests of opposition leaders and journalists reflect a government increasingly reliant on coercion rather than consent. In the Amhara region, atrocities like the recent Brakat massacre, a town near Bahir Dar, demonstrate that the regime now substitutes dialogue with deadly force. Hannah Arendt warned: “Violence appears where power is in jeopardy but left to its own course it ends in power’s disappearance.”
Political scientists identify these state-managed displays as classic symptoms of what may be termed “authoritarian anxiety syndrome” – a condition in which regimes stage elaborate shows of loyalty precisely when their actual support is collapsing. The choreographed rallies in Oromia follow a well-worn authoritarian playbook, from Mubarak’s Egypt to Mobutu’s Zaire, where governments turned to spectacle to mask instability. As Orwell wrote in 1984, “Power is in tearing human minds to pieces and putting them together again in new shapes of your own choosing.”
Escalating Repression and Violence
The regime’s insecurity is increasingly visible in its deepening reliance on repression, particularly in the Amhara region, where recent tragic events – including the killing of civilians in Barakat – exemplify the growing use of state violence. Rather than constructively addressing public grievances, Abiy’s government continues to rely on brute force, further isolating itself domestically and provoking growing international condemnation. These actions raise fundamental questions about the sustainability and legitimacy of Abiy’s rule. As the political theorist Gene Sharp noted, “The ruler’s power derives not from themselves, but from the obedience of the people. Withdraw that obedience, and the regime begins to fall.”
Forced Demonstrations: A Symptom of Deep Insecurity
The forced demonstrations in Oromia – particularly the highly visible mobilization in Sheger City – further expose the regime’s profound vulnerabilities. While such events may appear to showcase popular support, analysts widely interpret them as signs of desperation. Rather than evidence of public enthusiasm, they reflect rising anxiety within the ruling elite over crumbling legitimacy and mounting dissent.
Political psychologists have long observed that authoritarian leader’s resort to forced mobilizations when real support dwindles. These spectacles aim to project strength, unity, and control – but they ultimately reveal fear and insecurity. As Edward Said observed, “No one today is purely one thing. Labels like Indian, woman, Muslim, or American are not more than starting points.” The insistence on a singular narrative of loyalty only reinforces a government’s lack of real pluralistic legitimacy.
A Dangerous Cycle of Coercion and Intimidation
Reliance on forced demonstrations fosters a dangerous cycle of intimidation. These events serve as public rituals of dominance – tools for silencing dissent and warning potential opposition. Yet history has repeatedly shown that such tactics tend to backfire. Coerced support often breeds deeper public resentment and accelerates resistance, rather than suppressing it. “Where the people fear the government, there is tyranny,” Thomas Jefferson warned. “Where the government fears the people, there is liberty.”
Moreover, forced demonstrations damage the regime’s credibility both at home and abroad. They magnify perceptions of fragility rather than projecting confidence. In Ethiopia’s already tense political environment, these tactics risk aggravating instability and polarizing society further.
Ethiopia at a Crossroads
Ethiopia stands at a pivotal moment. Abiy’s increasing dependence on forced displays of loyalty reflects deeper leadership failures – diminishing legitimacy, growing repression, and profound insecurity. To move forward constructively, Ethiopia must shift course. Domestic stakeholders, civil society, human rights groups, and international partners must rally behind calls for inclusive political dialogue and genuine democratic reform. “The arc of the moral universe is long,” said Martin Luther King Jr., “but it bends toward justice.” The challenge is ensuring it does so in time.
Continuing down the current authoritarian path will only deepen ethnic tensions, magnify historical grievances, and push the country toward further fragmentation. Ethiopia’s future depends on a governance model grounded in human rights, transparency, and accountable leadership – not fear-based spectacles.
Conclusion: Weakness Masked as Strength
The forced demonstrations in Oromia do not signify Abiy’s and his regime’s strength. They are the hallmark of a regime battling deep insecurity – grasping for legitimacy through performance rather than through democratic consent. Abiy Ahmed’s government, once hailed as a beacon of reform, now finds itself staging loyalty it no longer commands. As Milan Kundera once wrote, “The struggle of man against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting.”
True authority does not come from choreographed chants but from the trust and voice of the people. Until the regime replaces intimidation with dialogue, and propaganda with participation, it will continue to expose not its dominance – but its fragility.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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