By Addissu Admas
If there is one consistent behavior that we observe in Ethiopia’s recent, and not so recent past, is the ease with which we begin wars “to settle” our disagreements or differences. This is true whether we are dealing with our bordering neighbors, or between ourselves. It has become almost instinctive to reach for the gun every time there is some issue. This has in essence been the posture of all the regimes that have followed the Revolution. But its antecedents can also be found in limited ways in Atse Haile Selassie I’s violation of UN’s clear resolution of Eritrea’s federation status in 1962. An act that reduced Eritrea to being the 14th province of Ethiopia and gave birth to the ELF and, a little later, of the EPLF. Had the Emperor respected our federal arrangement with Eritrea, none of the problems related to border issues and access to the Red Sea would have arisen. And Eritrea would have been in a much better political and economic place today. And so would Ethiopia!
The Derg, and more specifically Col. Mengistu H/Mariam, was given two extraordinary opportunities to resolve the Eritrean question. One was at the very start of the Derg’s regime, and the other at the end of it. What most Ethiopians believe still to be the sole instance in which Ethiopia was presented with an opportunity to resolve for good the Eritrean question was not, I contend, a definitive solution at all. I am of course alluding to the notorious “Red Star Campaign” of 1982. Even if the Ethiopian Defense Force had been successful in destroying the EPLF in this campaign, an even more radical Eritrean armed party would have arisen. As a matter of comparison, Israel’s current attempt to extirpate completely Hamas from Gaza is not only seen as militarily improbable, but even if Israel were to succeed in chasing Hamas out of Gaza, Hamas would be quite capable of reconstituting itself again somewhere else. This at least is the opinion of seasoned analysts. Wars of the kind Israel is conducting against Hamas today, and like Ethiopia had done with Eritrea in the past, have only limited and temporary success. Putting all your hopes in them is not only misguided, but destructive.
At the beginning of the Derg’s regime, Eritrea could have been made to accept reinstatement of her federation status. And Ethiopia would have prevented the massacre of untold number of young Ethiopian soldiers and Eritrean fighters. In the absence of an Ethio-Eritrean war, Ethiopia could have concentrated her energy on more pressing political and economic problems. Again, when the Derg’s regime started to crumble in the early months of 1991, Mengistu H/Mariam could have prevented the demise of his own regime, and Ethiopia from becoming a landlocked country, if he had negotiated in good faith and earnestly with the EPLF to reinstate Eritrea’s federal status. He instead continued to fight obtusely until he could no longer field enough force to counter the TPLF’ onslaught and had to flee shamefully to Zimbabwe.
No explanation is of course needed for why the Woyane regime never bothered, as far as we know, to secure for Ethiopia access to the Red Sea. It appears that its sole territorial agenda was to build “Greater Tigray” by annexing land historically belonging to other ethnicities. The Badme War was in fact caused by TPLF’s attempt to annex what Eritrea had already claimed as her own. Tens of thousands of Ethiopian soldiers died or were maimed needlessly in trying to expand Tigray’s territory!
The Woyane regime, which rebaptized itself as the EPRDF, was eminently positioned, especially before the Badme war, to negotiate with Eritrea for some kind of negotiated access to the Red Sea. As far as the official documents reveal, no such effort was made by the late Meles Zenawi nor his successor Haile Mariam Desalegn. What we have seen instead is the multi-billion-dollar construction of a completely electrified new railway between Djibouti and Addis Ababa. This has made Ethiopia even more dependent on Djibouti since the railway, which was built entirely with borrowed money from China, needs to pay for itself. The reality is that it will never pay itself; the repayment money must come from somewhere else!
Even though Eritrea owns legally the entire coastline from her border with Sudan in the north to her border with Djibouti in the south, no one would question that this state of affair is entirely due to colonial greed on one hand, and Atse’s Menelik’s shortsightedness (who otherwise was a most farsighted and astute emperor) on the other. The Italian companies had no business buying from the local chieftains all the lands on the coastline and handing them to their government. And it is still puzzling why the emperor allowed such blatant colonial encroachment on his empire.
The pressing fact today is that Ethiopia, being the most populated nation without access to the sea, must indeed find access to the Red Sea, not through war, but by diplomatic means. It can be done through direct negotiations with Eritrea, or by involving the UN and/or the African Union. If the Prime Minister intends to go to war against Eritrea to secure access to the sea and establish a naval base there, he would be doing it not only illegally, but by ignoring mindlessly the possibility of plunging Ethiopia into a total war that would very likely turn the country into a failed state. As an aside, I do not believe anymore that Ethiopia will be balkanized as I have maintained in the past and as many people still do. I do not think we can even come to an agreement on how to divide up Ethiopia to form separate states as in the Balkans. I believe that war at this juncture will only lead us to become a most pathetic failed state!
First of all, in order for the EDF (the Ethiopian Defense Force) to have even a fighting chance against Eritrea’s military, it desperately needs the support of all or nearly all the armed parties and militias of the entire nation of Ethiopia. This means having at the EDF’s disposal the combatants of the TPLF, Fano, OLA and ONLF and all the regional militias. This, of course, is an impossible proposition. From what we know today, Tigray is divided into three factions, only one of which is working in coordination with the federal government. The other two are suspected of working secretly with Eritrea! Amhara Fanos appears to be open to any alliance, even with Eritrea, to overthrow the government of Abiy Ahmed. The OLA (Oromo Liberation Army) and the ONLF (Ogaden National Liberation Front) would be happy to seize the opportunity of an Ethiopian-Eritrean war to pursue their separatist agenda. If a war breaks out with Eritrea, the only imaginable outcome is the effective end of Ethiopia as a nation.
The PM must put aside his ego and hubris, think soberly and choose the path of peace and reconciliation. He needs to invite all warring and non-warring parties to constitute a National Salvation Assembly to resolve all the most pressing issues causing the constant conflicts and hostilities between the federal government and the various armed parties. Such an assembly could be held under the aegis of the African Union or the United Nations, or any third country where all the contending parties can convene without fear.
The idea that somehow a strongman can end all Ethiopia’s conflicts, an idea I hope is not entertained by PM Abiy, must by now find its eternal resting place. What Ethiopia needs right now is a peacemaker who can set Ethiopia on the right footing.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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In general it is good article and clearly biased towards Eritrea and against Emperor Menelik.
It is Historical fact that Assab was sold during Emperor Yohannes IV without legal authority of the region administrator. Italy occupied the rest of Eritrea before Emperor Menelik came to power. Italy used Eritrea as staging place to try to concur Ethiopia. Hence, the battle of Adwa. The King included in the treaty of Addis Ababa for Eritrea to be returned to Ethiopia upon the departure of Italy.
The formation of ELF and EPLF was made by Egypt with the support of the West so Emperor Haileselassie or Mengistu couldn’t negotiate for Sea access because the whole purpose of supporting the liberation movements was to weaken Ethiopia.
This article is self evident to show how main man Yemane in Piccola Roma is a prolific writer. As I told you before, Yemane and I go way back to the late 1960’s. I asked him the other day if he and Isu can help me set up a website so he can post any articles as he wishes and told me that would be no sweat. I am now working overtime going through candidates for my pending website. I am heavily leaning towards a name that is linked to the area of my childhood years. Names of hills, rivers, ponds, waterfalls and villages are all possible winning candidates. Stay tuned.